Message-ID: <24632457.1075857653283.JavaMail.evans@thyme>
Date: Sun, 25 Mar 2001 13:25:00 -0800 (PST)
From: john.arnold@enron.com
To: slafontaine@globalp.com
Subject: Re: distillates
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yea,  i think the two dumps in the market are when everybody realizes the 
loss of demand, which is in the first 4 inj numbers.  customer buying and 
fear about the summer will keep may at a decent level.  if my theory holds, 
eventually that wont be enough to hold the market up and m pukes.  second 
puke is in the winter when 4th quarter production is 4-5% on y/y basis, 
demand still weak (economic weakness isn't a 3 month problem), industry 
realizes that not only is it ok to get to 500-700 bcf in march but you 
should, and early winter weather will not match 2000.  we develop large y/y 
surplus in x and z.  z futures hold up because some risk premium still exists 
for rest of winter.  by late december, just trying to find a home for gas.  
think decent chance f futures finish with a 2 handle.




slafontaine@globalp.com on 03/25/2001 08:16:26 PM
To: John.Arnold@enron.com
cc:  
Subject: Re: distillates



f puts?? you mean january?  u mean june and january???




John.Arnold@enron.com on 03/25/2001 07:30:38 PM

To:   Steve LaFontaine/GlobalCo@GlobalCo
cc:
Fax to:
Subject:  Re: distillates





just when i'm turning really bearish you're starting to turn bullish on me.
weather to me relatively unimportant.  yes, it will leave us with 30 bcf or
so less in storage than if we had mild weather.  i think it is masking a
major demand problem.  think what the aga numbers would be with moderate
weather.  when we get into injections, i think we'll see a big push down.
spec and trade seem bearish but hesitant to get short.  customer buying
still strong.  thus even with the demand picture becoming clearer, we
haven't moved down.  however i think when the picture becomes clearer (i.e.
-when we start beating last year's injections by 20 bcf a week), trade will
get short.  customers very unsophistocated.  the story they keep telling us
is we're coming out 400 bcf less than last year, thus the summer has to be
strong.  when we start inj, customers will start seeing other side of
story.  pira finally came out this week and said stop buying.  to me, the
mrkt just a timing issue.  i want to be short before the rest of the idiots
get short.  i continue buying m,f puts.  projecting k to settle 450 and m
400.




slafontaine@globalp.com on 03/23/2001 01:44:10 PM

To:   jarnold@enron.com
cc:
Subject:  distillates



this strength cud persist awhile-is a little bullish ngas demand since we
now
above parity in some places. shit theres so many things shaking my faith on
the
short bias of this thing. weather hot /west cold est, hydo, califronia,mkt
talking new engl shortages.oil demand cont to show stellar y on y and curve
recoveriung, opec hawkish stance for px support.
  i think we close the y on y gap still significantly but im starting to
question how when,how much and how long prices come off in apr-jun?
thanks god i can trade oil cuz i have made anything in ngas to speak of.
short
term still sort of neutral ngas-beleive we range bound. u prob know this
but
hearing texas rr data coming out pretty bearish prodcution-good news .
regards