Message-ID: <28717626.1075857571947.JavaMail.evans@thyme>
Date: Tue, 21 Nov 2000 13:16:00 -0800 (PST)
From: john.arnold@enron.com
To: slafontaine@globalp.com
Subject: re:mkts
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Hey:
Haven't had the best of months.  Like you had some good positions but others 
wiped out everything.  Unbelievable how the whole curve moves as one for 6 
months and then separates completely.  The z/f/g and f/g/h flies are 
amazing.  Something definitely out of whack.  Hard to believe cash in Z will 
be cantango to F and front spread, F/G, will be 40.  Spreads definitely 
implying we will see some $10+ prints on daily cash at the hub this winter.  
Hell, already seeing it in the West.  The system is just broken there.  
interesting to see if it is a sign of what can come in the east later.  
definitely more flexibility in the east so the blowouts won't occur until 
latter part of the winter.   the inelasticity of demand continues to be 
unbelievable.  who would have thunk it.   Gas can be 3 times what it was one 
year ago and not a significant loss of demand.   
market definitely trained to buy the dips at this point.  continues to be a 
very trending market.  most days finish on the intraday high or low.  
Pira told the boys to hedge jv and cal 2 and the impact has been 
significant.  i quote bids on term strips 5 times a day.   understand they 
are changing their view somewhat tomorrow.  wait and see if it relieves some 
back pressure.  very surprised at lack of spec long interest in jv at 4.5 
considering the scenario that's being painted.   




slafontaine@globalp.com on 11/21/2000 01:06:40 PM
To: jarnold@enron.com
cc:  
Subject: re:mkts



johnny, hope things re treating you well. this month has been frustrating for
me-generally caught many mkt moves but had 2 postions that nearly cancelled 
all
the rest. im finding it really really hard to assess risk now in oil and gas
therefore im taking a step back esp in front of holidays and year end. was 
long
mar gas vs backs which worked great but i took profits waayyy too early
  flat px i think is pretty clear-if weather stays normal to below we keep a
flaoor at 5.80-6.00 bucks for another 40 days at least. if we have sustained
aboves we drop like a rock in part due to back en d pressure.

   but spreads-what the hell do we do with em?????????? was just saying to 
mark
silverman there is a huge opportunity here staring us in the face but i hve no
idea what it is-i have equal arguements for why sprds shud fall or move out. 
any
great insites? hope all is well and enjoy the long weeknd-we both deserve it.
   guess the curve will stop blowing out when/if we see the back end selling 
dry
up??