Message-ID: <21991887.1075857634407.JavaMail.evans@thyme>
Date: Thu, 12 Apr 2001 04:03:00 -0700 (PDT)
From: john.arnold@enron.com
To: jennifer.fraser@enron.com
Subject: RE: ng views + wager
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the implied market on that from put spreads is 5.3:1.    I'll take 4:1.    
that's all the juice i'll pay.


From: Jennifer Fraser/ENRON@enronXgate on 04/12/2001 07:59 AM
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:  
Subject: RE: ng views + wager

Most import  - the wager - I will take the over on May NG (4.95). 2:1 is 
okay--- $5 per penny okay? 

Agree - Products
Rally is not different for products. 92% of heating oil is made ondemand  
(storage is not as important as in nat gas) Heat will get ugly this October 
and then give it up (unless we have 7 blizzzards in the Northeast very 
early). 
SOme things to consider :
1- in the next 3-4 weeks we will finish the very heavy maintenance season and 
be in full blown gasoline season.
- yields will be preferentially shifted for HU
3- nobody will pay any attention to HO
2-HO will have incremental demand due to utlity switching and will quietly 
build slower than last year 
4- therefore by September everyone will freak out
5- After the OCtober contract expires (HO) , everyone will realize (similar 
to NG) that the world will not end.

Where does this get us:
1- Sell q3 HU crack and by Q4HO crack (By the time q3 prices out--the wind 
will have been taken out of HU sails - plus you can do it month 
avg--therefore less noise)
2-Benefit from heat's recent excitement -- sell HO calls (June -Aug), buy ng 
puts nov-jan

Ng-Disagree:
I think prices stay high through June. The big drop off come some where in 
July 15 to Aug 15 and downhill from there. (Looks like 1998)

Jen Fraser
Enron Global Markets Fundamentals
713-853-4759

 -----Original Message-----
From:  Arnold, John  
Sent: Wednesday, April 11, 2001 10:41 PM
To: Fraser, Jennifer
Subject: Re: ng views

the only change that's happened to my long term outlook has been that the 
weather in the short term has been more bullish and we'll have 30 or so bcf 
less storage than i was anticpating in two weeks.  so yea, my curve is a 
touch higher, but it doesnt change my longer term view.  most of the move 
this week was a short sqeeze of spec shorts combined with a strong heat 
market.  a little concerned about heat, but also saw products very strong 
going into the season this past winter only to stage a huge failure.  not 
convinced this rally in products is different.  


From: Jennifer Fraser/ENRON@enronXgate on 04/11/2001 09:04 AM
To: John Arnold/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:  
Subject: ng views

where's your curve now?
MAy
June
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec Jan 02

Jen Fraser
Enron Global Markets Fundamentals
713-853-4759