Message-ID: <28467602.1075857635859.JavaMail.evans@thyme>
Date: Sun, 25 Mar 2001 10:30:00 -0800 (PST)
From: john.arnold@enron.com
To: slafontaine@globalp.com
Subject: Re: distillates
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just when i'm turning really bearish you're starting to turn bullish on me.  
weather to me relatively unimportant.  yes, it will leave us with 30 bcf or 
so less in storage than if we had mild weather.  i think it is masking a 
major demand problem.  think what the aga numbers would be with moderate 
weather.  when we get into injections, i think we'll see a big push down.  
spec and trade seem bearish but hesitant to get short.  customer buying still 
strong.  thus even with the demand picture becoming clearer, we haven't moved 
down.  however i think when the picture becomes clearer (i.e.-when we start 
beating last year's injections by 20 bcf a week), trade will get short.  
customers very unsophistocated.  the story they keep telling us is we're 
coming out 400 bcf less than last year, thus the summer has to be strong.  
when we start inj, customers will start seeing other side of story.  pira 
finally came out this week and said stop buying.  to me, the mrkt just a 
timing issue.  i want to be short before the rest of the idiots get short.  i 
continue buying m,f puts.  projecting k to settle 450 and m 400.  




slafontaine@globalp.com on 03/23/2001 01:44:10 PM
To: jarnold@enron.com
cc:  
Subject: distillates



this strength cud persist awhile-is a little bullish ngas demand since we now
above parity in some places. shit theres so many things shaking my faith on 
the
short bias of this thing. weather hot /west cold est, hydo, califronia,mkt
talking new engl shortages.oil demand cont to show stellar y on y and curve
recoveriung, opec hawkish stance for px support.
  i think we close the y on y gap still significantly but im starting to
question how when,how much and how long prices come off in apr-jun?
thanks god i can trade oil cuz i have made anything in ngas to speak of. short
term still sort of neutral ngas-beleive we range bound. u prob know this but
hearing texas rr data coming out pretty bearish prodcution-good news .
regards