Message-ID: <32610006.1075857637736.JavaMail.evans@thyme>
Date: Sun, 4 Mar 2001 08:31:00 -0800 (PST)
From: john.arnold@enron.com
To: slafontaine@globalp.com
Subject: Re: contangos vs winter putspds
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So my point shown a little bit right now..  Weather a little cooler for this 
week.  Overall normal for 6-10.  JV up 12 cents.  Think just as customers got 
totally fucked last year selling into the rally, they are going to buy all 
the way down.  Differnence is last year trade very happy to take in all the 
length.  This year trade not ready to get really short.  Not until healthy 
inj in April anyways.   I think money from here will be made being short, 
just question of what and when.  Think there'll be enough hedging demand to 
keep curve very strong unless phys market just totally rejects price level.   
With amount of inj capacity available, hard to believe phys market is going 
to dictate prices for next couple months.  I think it will be spec and 
hedgers dictating.  Spec staying on sidelines right now and hedgers buying.  
Leads to more upside potential in short term.  
My point in V/X was that jv would be strong and cal2 hedging was from sell 
side leading to pressure on those spreads.  The california term power sales 
have totally changed that.  Before, the only thing customers were selling was 
cal 2.  Now, customer interest much more from buyside in cal 2,3 solely from 
california.  Now turning neutral v/x and x/z.  You have very valid points.   
i like q/v more though.  I think you could have 10 cents of upside in that 
with little downside.  Thoughts?