Message-ID: <21277294.1075861474363.JavaMail.evans@thyme> Date: Wed, 5 Sep 2001 16:48:49 -0700 (PDT) From: neil.stein@csfb.com To: undisclosed-recipients@enron.com Subject: FW: Power Generation: A Regional Analysis of Supply and Demandin the US Power Market Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-From: Stein, Neil X-To: undisclosed-recipients X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \JDASOVIC (Non-Privileged)\Dasovich, Jeff\Deleted Items X-Origin: Dasovich-J X-FileName: JDASOVIC (Non-Privileged).pst > <> > Good Evening, > Attached, please find an abridged version of our 76-page report in which > we provide our supply and demand outlook for 12 regions across the US. > > Summary: > 1. The Power Markets Are Regional In Nature The fragmented US > transmission system results in significant regional power pricing and > economic disparities. In order to fully understand this industry, macro > analyses of the US market must be supplemented with an in-depth assessment > of its individual regions. > 2. Announced Projects Cannot Be Taken At Face Value Out of the 285,487 > MW of project announcements we have identified, only 26% are actually > under construction. Our base case analysis suggests that only 53% > (149,944 MW) of the announced projects will be completed. > 3. Shortages Will Persist In Several Key Markets Owing to a combination > of current supply shortages, capacity retirements and demand growth, we > estimate that the entire US will need 207,689 new MWs by 2006 in order to > achieve an equilibrium 18% capacity margin. This requirement is 39% above > our base case buildout forecast. Consequently, we project a 2006 capacity > shortfall of 57,745 MW. Our analysis indicates that supply shortages will > be most pronounced in the Mid-Atlantic, New York, parts of the Midwest, > and the Southeast. > 4. Positive Implications For Generators Our findings have positive > implications for selected generators. We believe that Calpine (CPN, > Strong Buy), Entergy (ETR, Buy), Mirant (MIR, Buy), NRG Energy (NRG, Buy), > PPL Corp. (PPL, Buy), and Reliant Resources (RRI, Buy) are best positioned > within this market. > > Regards, > > Neil Stein 212/325-4217 This message is for the named person's use only. It may contain confidential, proprietary or legally privileged information. No confidentiality or privilege is waived or lost by any mistransmission. If you receive this message in error, please immediately delete it and all copies of it from your system, destroy any hard copies of it and notify the sender. You must not, directly or indirectly, use, disclose, distribute, print, or copy any part of this message if you are not the intended recipient. CREDIT SUISSE GROUP and each of its subsidiaries each reserve the right to monitor all e-mail communications through its networks. Any views expressed in this message are those of the individual sender, except where the message states otherwise and the sender is authorised to state them to be the views of any such entity. Unless otherwise stated, any pricing information given in this message is indicative only, is subject to change and does not constitute an offer to deal at any price quoted. Any reference to the terms of executed transactions should be treated as preliminary only and subject to our formal written confirmation.