Message-ID: <680745.1075861487810.JavaMail.evans@thyme> Date: Wed, 21 Nov 2001 06:32:33 -0800 (PST) From: schwabalerts.marketupdates@schwab.com To: jeff.dasovich@enron.com Subject: Morning Market View for November 21, 2001 Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-From: Schwab Alerts X-To: Dasovich, Jeff X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \JDASOVIC (Non-Privileged)\Dasovich, Jeff\Deleted Items X-Origin: Dasovich-J X-FileName: JDASOVIC (Non-Privileged).pst Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. Email Alert Morning Market View(TM) for Wednesday, November 21, 2001 as of 9:30AM EST Information provided by Schwab Center for Investment Research STOCKS POISED TO OPEN SLIGHTLY LOWER Equity index futures were lower but off of early lows following better-than-expected economic data, reflecting possible stabilization in the job market. The futures had been down earlier amid contrasting earnings forecasts and a downgrade on technology titan Microsoft Corp. (MSFT,65,f1). Biotech bellwether Amgen Inc. (AMGN,58,f1) offered optimistic sales and earnings guidance, while Analog Devices (ADI,42,f2) was more pessimistic. Treasuries fell on the jobless numbers, while bleak European economic data limited strength in the euro-zone. In equities news, Microsoft Corp. was lower in the premarket session after a Salomon Smith Barney analyst downgraded the company, citing extended valuation due to potentially overly optimistic sales forecasts for the new Xbox video-game box. The analyst blamed the current economic malaise as well as competition from Japanese video-game manufacturers for his concerns. Shares of Amgen Inc. were higher in premarket activity after the company revised its estimated earnings growth rate upward, saying that sales of its new Aranesp anemia drug and Kineret arthritis treatment will push up its earnings growth rate to 20% in 2002, on the heels of 10%-12% growth this year. The company also reaffirmed its previous targets of compound sales and earnings growth in the low 20% range for the years 2001 through 2005. Amgen said that the forecasts excluded potential profits that would be realized if either Aranesp or a longer-acting form of its current Neupogen drug were approved for use in cancer patients. Communications chipmaker Analog Devices Inc. reported fiscal 4Q profits excluding items of $0.14 per share, ahead of the lowered First Call consensus estimate of $0.12 per share. Sales for the quarter fell 47% to $423.3 million, as companies such as Nortel Networks (NT,8.07,f2) and Ericsson (ERICY,5.05,f1) curbed new orders amid sluggish demand in the telecom industry. Looking to the fiscal 1Q, ADI said that sales will likely fall 5% below 4Q, and it expects earnings to come in at the low end of the Street's estimates. ---------------------------------------------------------------- TREASURY AND ECONOMIC SUMMARY Treasuries retreated following this morning's better-than-expected jobless claims report. According to the Labor Department, first-time claims fell 15,000 to 427,000 for the week ended Nov. 17 from the prior week's downwardly revised 442,000 level. Analysts per Dow Jones Newswires were looking for an increase in claims to 450,000. The four-week moving average of claims fell to 454,250 and continuing claims through the week ended Nov. 10 fell to 3,734,000. The drop in initial claims reflects potential firming in the job market, but continuous claims, while improving, still remain near an 18-year high. Traders will also be looking to this morning's approximately 9:45 a.m. EST release of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for further direction. ---------------------------------------------------------------- WORLD MARKETS A fresh eight-year low in the October German IFO business sentiment index and a European Union Commission downgrade of economic growth prospects capped gains in European bourses. The IFO index fell to a worse-than-expected 84.7 reading from September's 85.0 level, fueling speculation that Germany may not be able to avoid a recession. Adding to the worries, the European Union Commission slashed its euro-zone growth forecasts to 1.6% for 2001 and 1.3% for 2002 from previous estimates of 2.8% and 2.9%, respectively. In equities news, Dutch banking company ING Groep NV (ING,26) posted a smaller-than-expected drop in 3Q net profit to 901 million euros and reiterated full-year guidance. The euro was lower against the dollar following the German IFO report, while the Bloomberg European 500 index was up 0.2% as of 8:54 a.m. EST. Asian stocks were mixed, but Japan's Nikkei-225 index closed up 0.8% on strength in banking shares. Asahi Bank (ASIBY,7.75) reported that it disposed of a larger-than-expected amount of non-performing loans, sparking optimism that more companies in the sector may follow suit. The yen was lower against the dollar after Bank of Japan Governor Masaru Hayami intimated that injecting more money into the banking system would do little to stimulate the economy. ---------------------------------------------------------------- FUTURES WATCH In the December Globex futures contract as of 9:14 a.m. EST, the S&P 500 index was 1.5 points lower while the Nasdaq 100 index was down 2.5 points. The December DJIA futures contract was down 15 points and the January crude oil futures traded on the NYMEX were up $0.20 at $19.35/barrel. William Johnson, Market Analyst ================================================================ LOGIN to access your account: https://investing.schwab.com/trading/start ---------------------------------------------------------------- To unsubscribe or modify your Email Alert customization options, log in using the link below or copy and paste it into your browser's address window: https://investing.schwab.com/trading/start?SANC=EAMyAlerts ---------------------------------------------------------------- Notice: All email sent to or from the Charles Schwab corporate email system may be retained, monitored and/or reviewed by Schwab personnel. (0801-11478) Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. ("Schwab") is a member of the NYSE. Schwab Capital Markets L.P. is a member of the NASD and SIPC. Schwab Capital Markets L.P. is also a subsidiary of The Charles Schwab Corporation and is a market maker in approximately 5000 securities. 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