Message-ID: <17369220.1075861488418.JavaMail.evans@thyme> Date: Fri, 23 Nov 2001 06:34:09 -0800 (PST) From: schwabalerts.marketupdates@schwab.com To: jeff.dasovich@enron.com Subject: Morning Market View for November 23, 2001 Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-From: Schwab Alerts X-To: Dasovich, Jeff X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \JDASOVIC (Non-Privileged)\Dasovich, Jeff\Deleted Items X-Origin: Dasovich-J X-FileName: JDASOVIC (Non-Privileged).pst Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. Email Alert Morning Market View(TM) for Friday, November 23, 2001 as of 9:30AM EST Information provided by Schwab Center for Investment Research STOCKS MIXED IN TURKEY DAZE Stocks were poised to open mixed on this shortened trading day as America awakens from its traditional L-tryptophan stupor amid very little corporate or economic news. The National Bureau of Economic Research may declare the U.S. economy is in a recession, but there is a silver lining. Oil and oil-related shares fell overnight as Russia continues to rebuff OPEC overtures, driving European bourses lower. According to The Wall Street Journal, the NBER is meeting today and may declare that the longest U.S. economic expansion since World War II ended in March, when employment figures signaled that a recession may have begun. While a general rule of thumb for defining a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative Gross Domestic Product growth, the NBER defines a recession in a more subjective manner, utilizing key economic indicators. If a recession did indeed start in March, that could actually be a positive development, that is if history is any guide. Of course there are no guarantees that the economy will stick to historical norms, but the average recession since WWII lasted for about 10.5 months, with the longest slump spanning 16 months. That could mean that a recovery is just around the corner. Few economic indicators point to this scenario at this time, nor do earnings forecasts, but Ned Davis research shows that the markets have historically bottomed during a recession roughly five months before the economy and about ten months ahead of an earnings recovery. And there is a lot of monetary and fiscal stimulus in the pipeline to support a recovery soon. So, cheer up... the malls are opening early today! ---------------------------------------------------------------- TREASURY AND ECONOMIC SUMMARY Prices across the yield curve rose in early trading as Treasuries remain volatile, following last week's wild ride and oil prices fell overnight. Oil prices were higher earlier after Norway agreed to cut oil production, succumbing to OPEC pressure to cap global production limits. However, Russia once again rebuffed OPEC's threat of a price war if non-OPEC producers do not cut production by a total of 500,000 barrels per day, sending oil sharply lower. Russia said that it would cut output by just 50,000 bpd, but it wants to wait until early next year to discuss deeper cuts. ---------------------------------------------------------------- WORLD MARKETS After trading higher earlier in the session, oil-related shares led Bloomberg's European 500 Index down 1.2%, as of 8:55 a.m. EST. The euro rose versus the U.S. dollar after it was reported that French Gross Domestic Product rose 0.5% in 3Q, more than the 0.3% rise forecast according to Bloomberg, and German inflation remained tame in November. The British pound fell after UK Prime Minister Tony Blair reignited talk of joining the European Union, a move that Blair maintains would benefit the UK economy but may require a weaker pound to gain entry. Japan's markets were closed overnight for a holiday, but other Asian markets were generally higher. The yen fell versus the dollar after the Financial Times reported that the U.S. would support a Japanese plan to buy more U.S. securities to help weaken the yen. ---------------------------------------------------------------- FUTURES WATCH In the December Globex futures contract as of 8:55 a.m. EST, the S&P 500 index was 1.7 points lower while the Nasdaq 100 index was up 3.5 points. The December DJIA futures contract was down 13 points. David Kastner, Managing Market Analyst ================================================================ LOGIN to access your account: https://investing.schwab.com/trading/start ---------------------------------------------------------------- To unsubscribe or modify your Email Alert customization options, log in using the link below or copy and paste it into your browser's address window: https://investing.schwab.com/trading/start?SANC=EAMyAlerts ---------------------------------------------------------------- Notice: All email sent to or from the Charles Schwab corporate email system may be retained, monitored and/or reviewed by Schwab personnel. (0801-11478) Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. ("Schwab") is a member of the NYSE. Schwab Capital Markets L.P. is a member of the NASD and SIPC. Schwab Capital Markets L.P. is also a subsidiary of The Charles Schwab Corporation and is a market maker in approximately 5000 securities. 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