Message-ID: <10527278.1075854326544.JavaMail.evans@thyme>
Date: Fri, 2 Feb 2001 08:06:00 -0800 (PST)
From: daren.farmer@enron.com
To: jvobergfell@aep.com
Subject: Entex Forecasting
Mime-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit
X-From: Daren J Farmer
X-To: jvobergfell@aep.com
X-cc: 
X-bcc: 
X-Folder: \Darren_Farmer_Jun2001\Notes Folders\Sent
X-Origin: Farmer-D
X-FileName: dfarmer.nsf

To forecast Entex:

We have a database that contains the citygate volumes by day, with the low 
and high temps for each day.  When we get a weather report for the new day, 
we enter the projected low temp and the spread into the file.  The database 
is sorted by that information with a +/- 2 degrees on the temps, and provides 
an average volume for that criteria.  (For example:  With temps of 40-60, the 
sort would produce a list of the volumes pulled for each day with a low of 38 
to 42 degrees and a temperature spread of 20 to 22 degrees.  An average is 
then calculated from that volumetric data.  In this case, the average is 
calculated to 259,000 Mmbtu.)  Upon calculating the average, we then apply 
information we obtain through daily business and adjust that estimate.  
Things to consider:  if weather is cloudy or sunny, wet or dry;  wind chill;  
Entex's obligation on Midcon;  Entex's recent operating procedures;  Entex 
takes versus our prior estimates (have we been under or overestimating 
volumes each day), etc.

Additionally, since we only see about 30% of the meters, we apply a factor to 
estimate the remaining 70%.  If we have an unaccounted volume for a few days 
that is fairly consistent (and we have determined that the ua4 has not been 
caused by something else), we may adjust the factor to bring the estimates 
more in line.

Let me know if you have any questions.

Daren