Message-ID: <11864736.1075842447880.JavaMail.evans@thyme> Date: Thu, 30 Nov 2000 09:48:00 -0800 (PST) From: lorna.brennan@enron.com To: julie.mccoy@enron.com, steve.klimesh@enron.com, gary.sova@enron.com, rob.wilson@enron.com, lon.stanton@enron.com, david.marye@enron.com, courtney.barker@enron.com, sarabeth.smith@enron.com, keith.petersen@enron.com, michele.winckowski@enron.com, donna.martens@enron.com, josie.call@enron.com, bret.fritch@enron.com, donald.vignaroli@enron.com, danny.mccarty@enron.com, roger.westfall@enron.com, steve.thomas@enron.com, doug.aschwege@enron.com, judy.beck@enron.com, ken.anderson@enron.com, bryan.reinecke@enron.com, robert.johnson@enron.com, carolyn.descoteaux@enron.com, becki.souci@enron.com, gary.choquette@enron.com, ld.stephens@enron.com, john.goodpasture@enron.com, michael.ratner@enron.com, sebastian.corbacho@enron.com, yuan.tian@enron.com, rockey.storie@enron.com, kent.miller@enron.com, john.dushinske@enron.com, dave.neubauer@enron.com, bill.fowler@enron.com, michael.bodnar@enron.com, joni.bollinger@enron.com, david.badura@enron.com, janet.bowers@enron.com, craig.buehler@enron.com, bob.burleson@enron.com, allen.cohrs@enron.com, john.fiscus@enron.com, steve.gilbert@enron.com, morgan.gottsponer@enron.com, stephen.herber@enron.com, dana.jones@enron.com, stephanie.korbelik@enron.com, bill.mangels@enron.com, penny.mccarran@enron.com, vernon.mercaldo@enron.com, larry.pavlou@enron.com, eileen.peebles@enron.com, tony.perry@enron.com, loren.penkava@enron.com, ken.powers@enron.com, chris.sebesta@enron.com, frank.semin@enron.com, neal.shaw@enron.com, larry.swett@enron.com, kay.threet@enron.com, mike.ullom@enron.com, lisa.valley@enron.com, chuck.wilkinson@enron.com, jim.wiltfong@enron.com, jo.williams@enron.com, karen.lagerstrom@enron.com, bob.stevens@enron.com, sue.neville@enron.com, mike.barry@enron.com, martha.janousek@enron.com, kimberly.watson@enron.com, don.powell@enron.com, steve.weller@enron.com, michael.stage@enron.com, tim.johanson@enron.com, laura.lantefield@enron.com, frank.oldenhuis@enron.com, jeff.nielsen@enron.com, robert.mason@enron.com, sean.bolks@enron.com, miriam.martinez@enron.com, lee.ferrell@enron.com, john.williams@enron.com, reyna.cabrera@enron.com, theresa.branney@enron.com, jan.moore@enron.com, lynn.blair@enron.com, rick.dietz@enron.com, steven.january@enron.com, sheila.nacey@enron.com, donna.scott@enron.com, mary.miller@enron.com, michel.nelson@enron.com, mike.mcgowan@enron.com, julia.white@enron.com, drew.fossum@enron.com, glen.hass@enron.com, mary.darveaux@enron.com, rita.bianchi@enron.com, ranelle.paladino@enron.com, patrick.brennan@enron.com, tim.kissner@enron.com, shelley.corman@enron.com, steven.harris@enron.com, jeffery.fawcett@enron.com, lorraine.lindberg@enron.com, kevin.hyatt@enron.com, christine.stokes@enron.com, tk.lohman@enron.com, michelle.lokay@enron.com, lindy.donoho@enron.com Subject: EIA Releases Energy Outlook 2001 Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-From: Lorna Brennan X-To: Julie McCoy, Steve Klimesh, Gary Sova, Rob Wilson, Lon Stanton, David Marye, Courtney Barker, Sarabeth Smith, Keith Petersen, Michele Winckowski, Donna Martens, Josie Call, Bret Fritch, Donald Vignaroli, Danny McCarty, Roger Westfall, Steve Thomas, Doug Aschwege, Judy Beck, Ken Anderson, Bryan Reinecke, Robert L Johnson, Carolyn DesCoteaux, Becki Sans Souci, Gary Choquette, LD Stephens, John Goodpasture, Michael Ratner, Sebastian Corbacho, Yuan Tian, Rockey Storie, Kent Miller, John Dushinske, Dave Neubauer, Bill Fowler, Michael Bodnar, Joni Bollinger, David Badura, Janet Bowers, Craig Buehler, Bob Burleson, Allen Cohrs, John Fiscus, Steve Gilbert, Morgan Gottsponer, Stephen Herber, Dana Jones, Stephanie Korbelik, Bill Mangels, Penny McCarran, Vernon Mercaldo, Larry Pavlou, Eileen Peebles, Tony Perry, Loren Penkava, Ken Powers, Chris Sebesta, Frank Semin, Neal Shaw, Larry Swett, Kay Threet, Mike Ullom, Lisa Valley, Chuck Wilkinson, Jim Wiltfong, Jo Williams, Karen Lagerstrom, Bob Stevens, Sue Neville, Mike Barry, Martha Janousek, Kimberly Watson, Don Powell, Steve Weller, Michael G Stage, Tim Johanson, Laura Lantefield, Frank Oldenhuis, Jeff Nielsen, Robert Mason, Sean Bolks, Miriam Martinez, Lee Ferrell, John Williams, Reyna Cabrera, Theresa Branney, Jan Moore, Lynn Blair, Rick Dietz, Steven January, Sheila Nacey, Donna Scott, Mary Kay Miller, Michel Nelson, Mike McGowan, Julia White, Drew Fossum, Glen Hass, Mary Darveaux, Rita Bianchi, Ranelle Paladino, Patrick Brennan, Tim Kissner, Shelley Corman, Steven Harris, Jeffery Fawcett, Lorraine Lindberg, Kevin Hyatt, Christine Stokes, TK Lohman, Michelle Lokay, Lindy Donoho X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \Drew_Fossum_Dec2000_June2001_1\Notes Folders\All documents X-Origin: FOSSUM-D X-FileName: dfossum.nsf Note: EIA has increased their gas demand and price figures. At the bottom of this synopsis, the web site address will direct you to the full report released today if you would like further information. EIA: Gas Takes Bigger Share Long-Term A higher rate of economic growth will lead to a greater expansion in natural gas use than previously forecast over the next 20 years --- to 34.7 Tcf/ year in 2020, up from 31.5 Tcf --- and a 10% increase in projected prices --- from $2.81/Mcf to $3.13, according to the Energy Information Administration's latest report. EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2001 (AEO2001) released today projects U.S. economic growth at an average rate of 3% a year over the next 20 years, up from its previous estimate of 2.1% per year. The economic growth will boost overall U.S. energy demand from 96 quadrillion Btu in 1999 to 127 quads in 2020, up from the 121 energy quads projected by EIA one year ago (see Daily GPI, Nov. 10, 1999). The increase in the projection for natural gas demand by 2020 of slightly over 3 Tcf (loosely equal to 3 quads) is responsible for about half the change in energy projections. EIA says the 62% increase in gas demand from 21.4 Tcf in 1999 to 34.7 Tcf in 2020, will be spurred by a tripling of gas use for power generation. During the next 20 years 89% of new power generation units will be fueled by natural gas. Gas prices are expected to decline within two years from current highs. "In the longer term, technology improvements in the exploration and production of oil and natural gas are expected to moderate price increases even as demand for these fuels grows." EIA projects world oil prices will reach $22.41/barrel (in 1999 dollars) in 2020, up just slightly from the $22.04 in last year's forecast. The federal bean counters see a 1.8% average annual increase in power demand over the next 20 years, compared to the 1.3% they predicted last year. Prices will decline from the current 6.7 cents per kWh, but not as much as predicted last year due to the higher projected gas prices. Instead of 5.8 cents per kWh in 2020, EIA's AEO2001 sees electric rates holding at 6.0 cents per kWh. Power to be provided by nuclear generation jumped 34% from the forecast last year "due to lower estimated costs for extending the life of current nuclear plants and higher projected natural gas prices, although total nuclear generation still declines as some existing plants retire." Coal will still be the primary fuel for power generation, but its share will dwindle from 51% to 44% of the generating total. For the full report go to this web site: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/earlyrelease/index.html