Message-ID: <23874079.1075855589882.JavaMail.evans@thyme> Date: Wed, 9 May 2001 14:50:00 -0700 (PDT) From: evening@ino.com To: mike.grigsby@enron.com Subject: Trader, Wednesday CRB -0.04 USD -0.02 DOW -17.96 S&P -5.72 NAS -42.51 Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-From: "INO.com" X-To: "Trader And INO User" X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \Michael_Grigsby_Jun2001\Notes Folders\All documents X-Origin: Grigsby-M X-FileName: mgrigsb.nsf W E D N E S D A Y E X T R E M E M A R K E T S A complimentary service from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ) Wednesday: The CRB Index is falling 0.04 points to 214.56. The US Dollar Index declined 0.02 points to 116.06. The Dow Industrials dropped 17.96 points, at 10866.46, while the S&P 500 declined 5.72 points, last seen at 1255.48. 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Order Toll Free 800-538-7424 - 410-867-7424 All claims on third-party products are made by the publisher and not by INO.com. All Products Guaranteed. _____________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E M A R K E T C O M M E N T A R Y _____________________________________________________________________ June stock indexes close lower today. Prices are basically trading sideways. The Nasdaq June futures are still within striking distance of the April high of 1995. Sideways trading the past week has negated a fledgling four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls still have some heavy lifting to do and their next upside objective is resistance at the key 2,000 area. First support is seen at the 1,732 area. June S&P 500 futures closed lower. Prices have also leveled off the past week, after rallying solidly off the early-April low. Technically, bulls still need to push prices above the 1285 resistance area. My bias is still that any recovery in the stock market and the stock indexes won't be dramatic, but a slower grind higher, with fits and starts. First resistance is seen at 1285.00. First support is seen at 1206.00. LIVESTOCK: June live cattle closed $1.17 lower at 70.00 today. Ouch! Prices gapped sharply lower on the daily bar chart and hit a fresh eight-month low today. Reports that cash cattle traded $1.00 lower today at some locations sent the futures market tumbling. Today's plummet leaves the June futures well overextended, technically, on a short-term basis. A corrective bounce is in order. The bears are in full control of the market. Prices are trading way below an accelerating two-month-old downtrend line on the daily bar chart. Next support, basis June, is seen at $69.00. First resistance now comes in at the $70.50 level. August feeder cattle were pressured by the fat cattle futures and closed off 75 cents today at $87.50. Prices closed near the session low today and are now down in the lower portion of the recent trading range. If recent history continues to play out, the market will bounce up from the losses of the past two days. But if prices break down below the bottom of the recent trading range, which is right at today's low of $87.40, then the door is opened to a lower trend down to the January low just above the $86.00 level. Next resistance is seen at $87.80. First support is seen at $87.25. June lean hogs closed $0.58 lower today, at $66.92. Prices are still showing consolidation at lower levels, after the sell off last week. Firmer cash hog trade today could not stave off the technical weakness this market is experiencing. The bears have the strong momentum on their side at present. Next support lies at $66.25. First resistance is located at the 68.15 level. GRAINS: July corn futures closed unchanged at $2.05 today. It was a quiet "inside day" on the daily bar chart today, ahead of Thursday's USDA supply and demand report and the weekly export sales figures. Prices are under pressure this week after weekly crop progress reports out Monday showed very good planting progress in the U.S. There is just not much bullish fundamental news in the corn market right now. It would not surprise me to see the commodity funds make another significant downside assault on the corn and bean markets in the near term. Next support is now seen at $2.00. Next resistance is seen at the $2.07 1/2. July soybeans closed 1 1/2 cents lower at $4.39 today. Prices are consolidating the recent gains, but bulls by no means have any significant momentum. Still, it does look like a minor bull flag could be forming on the daily bar chart. Fundamentally, there is not much in the way of good news for bulls right now. Thursday's morning's USDA supply and demand report is expected to paint a picture that is not bullish for beans. I would not be surprised to see the commodity funds make another downside push in beans in the near term. This market is still in technical trouble and it's going to take a significant weather scare this spring or summer to force prices solidly higher. First resistance is seen at the $4.45 area and then $4.50. First support is seen at $4.35 and then at $4.30. Several weeks ago, I purchased a July soybean call option with a strike price of $4.80, for a price of 8 1/4 cents ($412.50). That option last traded at 4 1/2 cents. July soybean meal closed up $0.60 at $153.60 today. Prices this week are showing consolidation after they pushed to a fresh eight-week high last Friday. Recent price action is encouraging to the bulls and is a sign the lows are in place in the meal market. Let's see what tomorrow morning's export sales report shows. Next resistance comes in at the $158.50 area. First support is seen at $154.00. July bean oil closed 26 points lower at 14.83 cents today. After prices saw a decent corrective bounce Tuesday, they sold right back off today. This increase in volatility is consistent with a bottom process in a market. Oil is technically much weaker than beans or meal right now. But I would be surprised if there is much downside left in oil. Next resistance comes in at 15.00 cents. Next support is seen at the contract low of 14.76 cents. July Chicago wheat closed 1 cent lower at $2.65 3/4 today. Prices today touched the contract low of $2.65 that was scored yesterday. "Rain in the Plains Makes Grain." That's a bearish refrain. With the wheat crop behind schedule anyway, the recent rains could allow the crop to make some good improvement. Bears are in full command. Serious technical damage has occurred the past few sessions. First support lies at the contract low of $2.65. Next resistance is seen at $2.70. This market is short-term oversold and I suspect we'll see a corrective bounce soon. K.C. July HRW wheat closed off 1 cent at $3.22 1/4 today. Again, rainfall in the Plains states has weighed on the market for several sessions. A V-Top reversal is playing out on the daily bar chart. Serious chart damage has been inflicted the past few sessions. For bulls to get back in the ballgame, they need to push prices north and fill the downside gap on the daily bar chart (created last week) by pushing prices to the $3.34 area. That's a tall order right now. Next resistance is seen at the $3.28 area. Next support is seen at $3.20. This market is also short-term overdone on the downside. SOFTS: July N.Y. sugar closed 10 points lower at 9.00 cents today. We still could see a bull flag starting to form in sugar, on the daily bar chart. This many times occurs as prices consolidate steep gains. A three-month high was scored in July sugar late last week. The bulls have good momentum and a steep and accelerating five-week-old uptrend line is still in place on the daily bar chart. Next resistance now comes in at 9.25 cents. First support is now seen at 8.80 cents. July N.Y. coffee closed 100 points (1 cent) lower at 67.90 cents today. Prices closed near the session low. Still, prices today matched the two-month high set Tuesday, before backing off a bit. The bulls continue to gain momentum. This recent move is the most significant showing by the bulls since mid-January. The fact that prices have not sold off sharply the past few sessions is encouraging for the bulls, too--given recent price history. Still, the bears could be setting a trap, like they did in early January. If bulls can push prices above 70 cents and then see follow-through strength, bears will begin to think this uptrend is sustainable. First resistance comes in at 70 cents. First support is seen 65.00 cents. July N.Y. cocoa closed $23 lower today, at $1,021. Prices pushed to a fresh six-week high today, before selling off by the close and closing near the session low. Tuesday's strong gap-higher trade on the daily bar chart did put the bulls back on a level playing field with the bears. Prices pushed above and negated a 2.5-month-old downtrend line on the daily bar chart. Next resistance comes in at $1,050--today's high. First support is now seen at $1,000. July cotton closed 1 point lower at 45.43 cents today. Traders took a "rest day" today after Tuesday's solid losses, and ahead of Thursday's export sales and the monthly USDA supply and demand report. Cotton is in a strong bear market, and a new contract low was scored again today, at 45.36 cents. Right now, any rebounds are likely to be just selling opportunities for the bears. But, my bias is still that we are not that far from a bottoming process. Next support lies at 45.00 cents. First resistance is seen around 48.00 cents. Would-be bottom-pickers should beware. Bulls need to watch for some "basing" action, which may be beginning. July orange juice futures closed 175 points higher today, at 78.70 cents. Prices closed near the session high today and filled an important downside gap area on the daily bar chart. That's an important first step for the bulls in turning this market around. Next resistance is seen at 79.00 cents. Next support comes in at 77.15 cents--today's low. July lumber futures closed $6.90 lower at $301.50 today. Today's sell off is not unhealthy for the bulls. It was overdue. Prices just Monday hit yet a new for-the-move high, at $313.20. Today's price action is just some healthy consolidation in a bull market. Expect more volatility, however, as is typical for this market. The next upside objective for the bulls is the $315.00 area. First support is seen at the $300.00 area. This market is still a bit short-term overbought, technically, and I would not be surprised to more of a downside correction in the near term. METALS: June COMEX gold closed up $4.90 today, at $270.40. Prices scored a big "outside day" up on the daily bar chart today, and in the process pushed prices to a two-month high. Heavy fund short covering was featured in the trading pit. This market is in a nice uptrend since scoring its early-April low. Today's type of gain is just what bulls needed to gain confidence to trek farther north on the chart. Next resistance is located at $273. First support is seen at $265.00--today's low. July silver closed up $0.08 today, at $4.415 an ounce. Prices popped on short covering and the rally in gold. Silver prices are still not that far above the contract low. Prices are chopping at lower levels, and this suggests a "basing" action that many markets need to change the trend from down, to sideways, to eventually up. Next support is seen at $4.33--today's low. First resistance is seen at $4.45. Bears still have the advantage. July N.Y. copper closed 50 points lower today, at 76.35 cents. More stock market weakness helped drive this market lower again today. Prices may still be attempting to build a base and recover from the early-April low. My bias is still that the downside is limited for copper. But the stock market and the U.S. economy will have to be healthy before the bulls can really get something going in copper. Next resistance is seen at 77.00 cents. Next support is seen at 75.00 cents. ENERGIES: July crude closed $0.53 higher at $28.90 today. Prices scored a mildly bullish "outside day" up on the daily bar chart, but bulls and bears are still at a stand-off. Expect more choppy trading. Next support is seen at 28.00. Next resistance lies at $29.50. July heating oil closed 149 points higher today, at .7700. Prices closed near the session high and bulls still have the slight edge. But look for more choppy trading in the near future. Next support is seen at 73.00 cents. Next resistance is seen at 77.50 cents and then 79.00 cents. July unleaded gasoline closed 172 points higher at 1.0070 today. Prices closed near the session high and scored a bullish "outside day" up on the daily bar chart. Prices scored a new contract high just Monday, but backed off sharply before the close and then saw follow-through selling Tuesday. That confirmed a key reversal. But given the recent volatility in unleaded, I am not placing a lot of emphasis on that key reversal. Bulls are still in command as peak driving season nears. Top-pickers beware! Next resistance is seen at $1.03. First support is seen at $.9780--today's low. July natural gas closed 8.3 cents lower at $4.27 today. Prices hit a fresh five-and-one-half-month today. Next support is seen at $4.20 and first resistance is now at $4.50. This market is still short-term oversold, technically. FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The June Euro currency closed 10 points higher at .8842 today. Bears have the edge as bulls have lost all the momentum they had gained in mid-April. Prices hit a fresh three-week low today. My bias is still that there is not much downside left in the Euro. Look for more choppy action in the near term. Bulls will again gain good momentum if they can push prices above the .9075 area. Next support is now seen at .8800. Next resistance is seen at .9000. The June Japanese yen closed 55 points lower at .8218 today. Bears are still in control. Bulls are hoping for some "basing" activity at lower levels, and that may be occurring, although it's too early to tell. Next support now lies at the .8100 level. First resistance is seen at the .8326 level. The June Swiss franc closed unchanged today, at .5745. Bears are in command. Still, my bias is that prices won't deteriorate much more. Next support is seen at the .5700 level. First resistance comes in at the .5830 level. The June Australian dollar futures closed 87 points higher at .5234 today. Prices pushed to a fresh two-month high late last week and are consolidating a bit this week. The bulls still have the advantage as a five-week-old uptrend line is in place on the daily bar chart. My bias is that the lows are in place. First resistance is now seen at .5250. First support is now seen at .5100. The June Canadian dollar closed 30 points higher today, at .6498. Prices rebounded today after Monday's key reversal down on the daily bar chart. Bulls lost some the past two sessions, but will gain it right back if prices can push back north soon. Monday's key reversal does not indicate prices are headed back toward the lows seen a few weeks ago. What it does suggest is a downside correction to the recent gains may occur over the near term. This currency had been near recent historic lows and I do not think there is much more downside. Next resistance is seen at the .6548 level. First support is seen at the .6450 level. The June British pound closed 48 points lower at 1.4200. Trading continues choppy at lower levels. This currency was not that far above recent historic lows and I do not think there is much more downside in the sterling. One could argue that price action the past few weeks has been a "basing" before prices eventually turn north. A move above the 1.4500 level would be considered a bullish "upside breakout" from the recent congestion area. A move below 1.4100 would be considered a bearish downside breakout. Next support is now seen at the 1.4160 level--today's low. Next resistance comes in at the 1.4300 level. The June U.S. dollar index closed 2 points lower at 116.22 today. Bulls have the momentum in the near term. The recent double-top reversal on the daily bar chart still favors the bears longer-term. Next resistance lies at the 116.50 level. First support is seen at the 114.50 area. My bias is still that a near-term top is in place in the dollar index. June U.S. T-bonds closed 18/32 higher today at 102 5/32. Bulls need to show some more resolve, after pushing prices well off the lows scored in late April. A steep six-week-old downtrend line was penetrated on the upside last week and negated. Also, a minor double-bottom reversal has occurred on the daily bar chart. My bias is that odds favor a strong upside move, as opposed to a strong downside move. Next resistance is seen at 103 9/32. First support is seen at 101 11/32 level--today's low. The June U.S. T-note closed up 13.0 (32nds) today at 105.06.0. Bears still have the slight edge. First support is seen at the 104.16.0 level. First resistance is seen at 105.20.0. Daily Extreme Commentary is brought to you by GLOBALcharts, INO.com's end-of-day charting software for Futures, Futures Options and Optionable Stocks. http://www.globalcharts.com Search the INO Store - http://store.ino.com/ _____________________________________________________________________ T O P N E W S _____________________________________________________________________ STOCKS Japan Stocks Review: Nikkei down 1.4% on profit taking http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25276 US Equities Review: Lower; Cisco offers little guidance http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25283 UK Stocks Review: Late gains push FTSE into positive territory http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25282 FOREX US FX Review: Yen falls on concerns tied to new govt http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25278 Asia FX Review: Yen weakens on fall in Japan stocks http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25275 Europe FX Review: Euro/dlr undermined by German output slump http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25277 CREDIT US Credit Review: Solid gain as hedges lifted on WorldCom debt http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25273 Europe Credit Review: European bond prices rise, waiting for ECB http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25279 Japan Credit Review: June up on firm cash, fair 5-year tender http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25281 COMMODITIES US Futures Summary: Refinery snags boost oil, gasoline; gold up http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25280 EXCHANGES Listing Delay For May 2003 Cotton Contracts http://news.ino.com/press/?release=23565 Cynthia Hallenbeck Named CFO Of Refco Global Futures http://news.ino.com/press/?release=23564 Pacific Exchange To Trade Options on Reliant Resources, Inc. http://news.ino.com/press/?release=23563 Deutsche Borse Reports 9.5% Rise In April ETF Volume http://news.ino.com/press/?release=23562 ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E F U T U R E S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/futures/ WINNERS HUM1 New York Harbor Unleaded Gasoline Jun 20 1.0767 0.0326 +3.12 CLM1 Light Sweet Crude Oil Jun 2001 28.23 0.77 +2.81 HOQ1 Heating Oil Aug 2001 0.7745 0.0182 +2.39 OJN1 Orange Juice Froz. Conc. #1 Jul 2001 78.70 1.80 +2.34 YAM1 Australian Dollar/Japanese Yen Jun 2001 63.64 1.37 +2.20 SIU1 Silver Sep 2001 4.451 0.092 +2.10 BDK1 Oriented Strand Board May 2001 211.00 4.00 +1.90 XKZ1 Gold Dec 2001 273.4 5.1 +1.90 KIM1 Kilo Gold Jun 2001 270 5 +1.89 AGM1 Silver 1,000 oz. Jun 2001 4.410 0.080 +1.85 LOSERS CCK2 Cocoa May 2002 1048 -42 -3.89 NDU1 NASDAQ 100 Index Sep 2001 1959.00 -70.00 -3.57 LBK1 Random Length Lumber May 2001 306.20 -8.50 -2.70 NGQ2 Henry Hub Natural Gas Aug 2002 4.242 -0.110 -2.53 NKU1 Nikkei 225 Stock Avg Sep 2001 14105 -340 -2.36 XHQ1 Lean Hogs Aug 2001 61.75 -1.45 -2.31 PBN1 Frozen Pork Bellies Jul 2001 79.000 -1.650 -2.05 LHQ1 Lean Hogs Aug 2001 61.700 -1.150 -1.83 LCM1 Live Cattle Jun 2001 70.000 -1.275 -1.79 BON1 Soybean Oil Jul 2001 14.83 -0.26 -1.72 ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E S T O C K S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/stocks/ WINNERS HLIT HARMONIC INC 8.14 2.18 +37.01 XMSR XM SATELLITE RADIO'A' 11.40 3.07 +36.85 GGNS GENUS INC 5.49 1.07 +24.43 GENI GENESISINTERMEDIA.COM INC 14.86 2.77 +23.08 SPIR SPIRE CORP 7.97 1.45 +22.66 IEE INTEGRATED ELECTRICAL SVCS 7.21 1.16 +19.53 TRPH TRIPATH TECHNOLOGY 8.71 1.38 +19.38 CMLS CUMULUS MEDIA 'A' 12.65 1.95 +18.48 LMIA LMI AEROSPACE 5.05 0.78 +17.53 MM MUTUAL RISK MANAGEMENT 9.70 1.35 +16.67 LOSERS WITS WITNESS SYSTEMS 9.10 -2.90 -24.17 KT KATY INDUS 5.70 -1.65 -22.45 ISRG INTUITIVE SURGICAL 5.15 -1.20 -19.35 MAXC MAXCO INC 7.50 -1.43 -19.07 MOGN MGI PHARMA, INC 8.57 -1.48 -14.79 GTSI GTSI CORP 6.20 -1.01 -14.31 CMGI CMGI INC 5.13 -0.82 -13.78 EDEL EDELBROCK CORP 9.00 -1.49 -13.26 ACME ACME COMMUNICATIONS 7.55 -1.12 -12.83 CNXT CONEXANT SYSTEMS 9.87 -1.37 -12.23 FREE MANAGED FUTURES & IRA RETIREMENT KIT http://www.ino.com/specials/icm/ _____________________________________________________________________ T H A N K Y O U _____________________________________________________________________ Thank you for subscribing to the Extreme Markets Daily Digest from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ). 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