Message-ID: <15921485.1075855351327.JavaMail.evans@thyme> Date: Mon, 24 Dec 2001 15:49:47 -0800 (PST) From: evening@ino.com To: mike.grigsby@enron.com Subject: Trader, Monday USD +0.90 S&P -0.24 DOW 0.00 NAS -1.35 CRB +0.19 Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ANSI_X3.4-1968 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-From: INO.com X-To: Grigsby, Mike X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \Michael_Grigsby_Jan2002_1\Grigsby, Mike\Deleted Items X-Origin: Grigsby-M X-FileName: mgrigsb (Non-Privileged).pst M O N D A Y E V E N I N G E X T R E M E M A R K E T S A complimentary service from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ) Monday: The CRB Index has climbed 0.19 points to 191.59. The US Dollar Index trended higher 0.90 points to 117.88. The Dow Industrials moved higher by 0.00 points, at 10035.34, while the S&P 500 edged lower 0.24 points, last seen at 1144.65. 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All Products Guaranteed. _____________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E M A R K E T C O M M E N T A R Y _____________________________________________________________________ The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes Stock indexes were higher on Friday due to bargain hunting buying in technology stocks. The NASDAQ closed higher on Friday as it continues to consolidate above the 25% retracement level of this fall's rally crossing at 1905.53. Momentum indicators remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible into early-January. The March S&P 500 index also closed higher on Friday due to light short covering ahead of Christmas. Bulls remain encouraged by this week's short covering rebound off the 25% retracement level of this fall's rally crossing at 1120.66. However, closes above December's high crossing at 1176 are needed to renew this fall's rally. Until then, March may decide to correct more in time than price, which would be long-term bullish. The Dow posted an inside day with a higher close on Friday due to light bargain hunting buying ahead of the Christmas holiday weekend. Gains were limited following a downward revision of the third quarter GDP to -1.3% from the previous estimate of -1.1%. Additional pressure came from weak consumer confidence data. Nevertheless, the Dow remains poised to test the 62% retracement level of the May/September decline crossing at 10,094.10 in the near future. INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=interest March T-bonds closed lower on Friday due to light profit taking ahead of the Christmas holiday. A downward revision in economic growth for the third quarter along with weak consumer spending also provided light pressure to the market. Nevertheless, March remained above this fall's downtrend line, which leaves the door open for sideways to higher prices possibly into early-January. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last week's high crossing at 102-05 would confirm this week's trendline breakout while opening the door for a larger-degree rebound this winter. The CRB INDEX http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes The CRB index closed higher on Friday due to strength in livestock, precious metals, fiber, and energies. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are still possible into the end of the year. Today's rally sets the stage for a possible test of this month's high crossing at 193.39. Closes above 193.39 are needed to renew the CRB's rally off October's low. ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=energy The energy markets closed mostly higher on Friday with the exception of heating oil. Trading volume was limited as many traders decided to kick off the Christmas holiday early. Trading next week is likely to be subdued ahead of next Friday's meeting among OPEC nations at which time they will decide whether or not to proceed with their announced cutback on crude oil production beginning January 1 in an attempt to stabilize sagging energy prices. February crude oil posted an inside day with a higher close due to light short covering on Friday as it consolidated some of Thursday's losses. February has broken out above this fall's downtrend line leaving it in position to test the early-December high crossing at 21.05 later this winter. Trading is likely to remain subdued ahead of next week's OPEC meeting. February heating oil closed slightly lower on Friday thereby confirming Thursday's key reversal down. I would not be surprised to see sideways trading extend into the end of the year as traders await OPEC's decision about production next Friday. Closes above this week's high would open the door for a larger-degree rebound into early-January with November's high crossing at 64.35 being a potential target later this winter. February unleaded gas closed slightly higher due to light short covering on Friday. This week's failed attempt to breakout the early-December high of 57.62 has left a possible double top on the daily chart. Closes above this resistance level would open the door for a possible test of November's gap crossing at 59.80 later this winter. Momentum indicators remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible into the end of the year. February Henry Hub natural gas closed sharply higher on Friday as extended weather forecasts are calling for the first major winter storm of the winter to hit portions of the upper Midwest and move eastward beginning this weekend. Today's high fell short of testing last week's high crossing at 2.94. Closes above this resistance level would confirm a breakout above this fall's downtrend line while opening the door for a larger-degree rebound into January. CURRENCIES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=currencies The March Dollar closed sharply higher on Friday and posted a hew high close for December. Short covering ahead of the Christmas holiday triggered today's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that additional gains are possible. While a round of profit taking is possible when trading resumes next week, the stage is set for additional gains into early-January. I am looking for the March Dollar to eventually try and test November's high crossing at 118.27 later this winter. The March Swiss Franc closed sharply lower on Friday thereby turning short-term momentum indicators bearish signaling that a short-term top has been posted. The nearly flat correction off November's low was one of time instead of price and underscores the weak tone of the market. While a short covering bounce is possible when trading resumes next week, the stage is set for a possible test of this fall's lows by early-January. The March Canadian Dollar closed lower on Friday and tested the 62% retracement level of November's rally crossing at .6300. While a short covering bounce is possible when trading resumes next week, momentum indicators are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible into early-January. If the decline continues, the 75% retracement level crossing at .6273 is March's next target. The March Japanese Yen plunged to new contract lows on Friday as it fell to a new three-year low against the U.S. Dollar. The late-week acceleration in this fall's decline leaves the market poised to eventually test monthly fib support crossing at .7568 later this winter. The daily ADX is bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible. Closes above November?s downtrend line crossing near .7970 are needed to confirm a bottom and trend change has taken place. PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals February gold closed higher on Friday due to short covering triggered by today's sharp rally in the U.S. Dollar. As long as February gold remains above minor trendline support crossing near 276.50 the door remains open for sideways to higher prices into early January with November's high crossing at 283.30 being a potential target. Stochastics and the RSI are holding onto their bullish positions signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible into early- January. March silver closed sharply higher on Thursday due in large part year-end short covering. Nevertheless, today's rally led to a close above the 50% retracement level crossing at 4.423 thereby renewing its rally off November's low. While stochastics and the RSI are very overbought, trend-following indicators such as the ADX are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible into early-January. March copper closed higher on Friday after testing the 50% retracement level of November's rally crossing at 67.50. March's inability to push below this support level triggered a short covering rally into the close. However, additional strength next week with closes above the reaction high crossing at 69.45 are needed to confirm a bottom has been posted. Short-term momentum indicators are oversold and turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible into the end of the year. GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains March corn closed lower on Friday falling just a 1/4-cent short of testing the contract low posted in November. Closes below the contract low at 2.10 1/4 would open the door for additional weakness and a possible test of weekly support crossing at 2.04 1/4 later this winter. Uncertainty over sales policies in Argentina and China along with lagging U.S. export sales, which are running 11% behind last year's sluggish pace continue to pressure the market. Today's sharp rally in the U.S. Dollar along with an increase in cheaper feed-grade wheat also pressured the market. Short-term momentum indicators are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible into the end of December. March wheat closed higher on Friday due to light short covering ahead of the Christmas holiday. Light support came from expectations that this week's huge U.S. wheat sale to China will be confirmed before the end of the year. At the same time gains were limited due to ideas that Argentina will soon devalue its currency and that wheat exports will pick up significantly once this devaluation occurs. Since wheat is on pace to meet USDA export sales, any further sales to China could be extremely supportive to wheat prices as ending stocks will be directly effected. It will take closes above the Nov./Dec. downtrend line crossing near 2.95 to temper the bearish outlook in the market. Until then look for choppy price action to continue. SOYBEAN COMPLEX http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains January soybeans closed steady on Friday in quiet pre- holiday type trading. I do not see any major pickup in trading volume when traders return from Christmas next week. While demand for U.S. beans remains strong, near ideal growing condition in South America have bears penciling in another record soybean crop. Uncertainty about Argentina's political situation is also limiting near-term gains as they are expected to devalue their currency in the near future. Once this is done, they will likely become aggressive marketers of new crop soybeans once they become available to the market. At the same time, momentum indicators are oversold and turning neutral hinting that a short-term bottom might be in or is near. Closes above trendline resistance crossing near 4.41 are needed to confirm a bottom is in place. January soybean meal closed lower on Friday. Early strength led to a spike above minor resistance crossing at 151.90. However, a lack of follow-through buying triggered a sell off ahead of the close. Nevertheless, short-term momentum indicators have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible into early-January. LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock February hogs gapped up and closed sharply higher following Thursday's friendly monthly cold storage report confirming Thursday's upside reversal. Spillover support from sharply higher belly and cattle prices also underpinned today's rally. Talk of steady cash bids next week could support steady to higher prices on Monday however, trading volume will be very thin leaving the door open for volatile trading. Today's gap up may prove to be an upside breakaway gap. While a setback is possible on Monday, the stage is set for a test of November's high crossing at 55.35 later this winter. Momentum indicators are higher signaling that additional gains are possible into early-January. February cattle closed sharply higher on Friday due to short covering ahead of this afternoon's cattle-on-feed report. The report was called bullish for the April and June contracts because of the less-than-expected placements. Today's new high close for the week following by a friendly cattle-on-feed report sets the stage for a possible test of November's high crossing at 71.35 later this winter. Momentum indicators remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible into early-January. FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=food March coffee closed sharply lower on Friday as it posted a key reversal down ahead of the Christmas Holiday weekend. Locals and funds were late sellers as they took advantage of thin pre-holiday trading volume. Additional weakness next week is needed to confirm today's bearish reversal pattern. Closes below 44.75 would confirm a breakout into new contract lows thereby opening the door for a possible test of psychological support crossing at 40-cents later this winter. March cocoa posted a quiet inside day with a slightly higher close on Friday as it continues to consolidate below Wednesday's gap crossing at 1297. Momentum indicators have turned bearish with this week's setback thereby increasing the odds that a short-term top is in place. If the decline resumes next week, December's low crossing at 1212 is March's next target. Closes below 1212 would open the door for a larger-degree decline into January. March sugar posted an inside day with a slightly higher on Friday as it extended Thursday's short covering bounce following this week's spike below the 50% retracement level of this fall's rally crossing at 698. Momentum indicators remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible into early-January. I am looking for March to renew this week's decline next week with November's low crossing at 661 being a possible target later this winter. March cotton closed higher on Friday due to light short covering ahead of the Christmas Holiday weekend. This week's setback has turned stochastics and the RSI bearish again signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible into the end of the year. Closes above 37.60 or below 34.91 are needed to clear up near-term direction in the market. I want to wish each and every one of you a very Merry Christmas. Take time to find and remember why we are celebrating Christmas. Ken Seehusen Daily Extreme Commentary is brought to you by GLOBALcharts, INO.com's end-of-day charting software for Futures, Futures Options and Optionable Stocks. http://www.globalcharts.com Search the INO Store - http://store.ino.com/ _____________________________________________________________________ I N O N E W S _____________________________________________________________________ NYMEX Acquires Confirmation Clearing Corporation http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27653 Joint Pledge By CFTC And SEC On Security Futures http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27652 ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E F U T U R E S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/futures/ WINNERS XCZ3 Corn Dec 2003 250 1/4 20 +7.99 PBH2 Frozen Pork Bellies Mar 2002 78.125 3.000 +3.97 LBF2 Random Length Lumber Jan 2002 267.00 10.00 +3.89 AGM2 Silver 1,000 oz. Jun 2002 4.660 0.160 +3.56 SSH2 British Pound/Swiss Franc Mar 2002 2.4325 0.0563 +2.38 LHG2 Lean Hogs Feb 2002 55.775 1.250 +2.29 XHG2 Lean Hogs Feb 2002 55.77 1.10 +2.01 RAH2 South African Rand Mar 2002 0.081675 0.001625 +2.00 FCF2 Feeder Cattle Jan 2002 85.500 1.000 +1.18 RZH2 Euro/Swiss Franc Mar 2002 1.4808 0.0168 +1.15 LOSERS SFH2 Swiss Franc Mar 2002 0.59000 -0.01430 -2.37 ECZ2 EuroFX Dec 2002 0.86870 -0.01230 -1.40 EJH2 Euro/Japanese Yen Mar 2002 112.85 -1.06 -0.93 NKM2 Nikkei 225 Stock Avg Jun 2002 10400 -75 -0.72 CDH2 Canadian Dollar Mar 2002 0.62600 -0.00440 -0.70 GBH2 Euro/British Pound Mar 2002 0.6086 -0.0042 -0.68 ZRH2 U.S. Dollar/South African Rand Mar 2002 12.3440 -0.0760 -0.62 ZBM2 U.S. Treasury Bond Jun 2002 99 17/32 -18/32 -0.56 NDH2 NASDAQ 100 Index Mar 2002 1585.00 -8.50 -0.53 XDM2 Canadian Dollar Jun 2002 0.6263 -0.0031 -0.49 *FREE TRIAL-T3 Fibs Pro Trader Software 100% Automated Tops & Bottoms-Any Market Any Time Frame http://www.ino.com/specials/nexgen/protrader.html ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E S T O C K S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/stocks/ WINNERS NATR NATURE'S SUNSHINE PROD 11.5500 3.3000 +41.25 TONS NOVAMERICAN STEEL INC 5.0500 1.2000 +26.67 WLHN WOLOHAN LUMBER 21.0300 4.0000 +23.53 LENS CONCORD CAMERA 6.9000 1.1400 +19.79 SNIC SONIC SOLUTIONS 5.1000 0.6900 +16.05 ASE AMER SCIENCE & ENGR 20.75 2.75 +15.28 SYM SYMS CORP 5.73 0.76 +15.20 INVN INVISION TECHNOLOGIES 32.7100 4.2000 +14.73 TIVO TIVO INC 6.2000 0.7300 +13.35 DMRC DIGIMARC CORP 19.2400 2.2400 +13.18 LOSERS WGRD WATCHGUARD TECHNOLOGIES INC 6.9500 -3.1800 -31.21 ASW A.C.L.N. LTD 7.79 -2.31 -22.87 PAR COASTCAST CORP 5.35 -1.00 -15.75 USAK USA TRUCK 9.7000 -1.5000 -13.39 JHFT JOHN HANCOCK FINL TRENDS FD 13.2500 -1.9493 -12.78 VITX V.I. TECHNOLOGIES 6.4000 -0.8600 -12.10 IIJI INTERNET INITIATIVE JAPAN INC 6.3600 -0.7600 -11.09 TTMI TTM TECHNOLOGIES 9.2400 -1.1100 -10.64 RSYS RADISYS CORP 17.5500 -1.9700 -10.04 QVDX QUOVADX INC 9.5000 -0.9000 -8.61 _____________________________________________________________________ T H A N K Y O U _____________________________________________________________________ Thank you for subscribing to the Extreme Markets Daily Digest from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ). If you want to subscribe to our other email services, or would like to modify your profile please visit http://www.ino.com/email/. To subscribe a friend, visit: http://www.ino.com/email/ To unsubscribe, visit: http://www.ino.com/email/remove/?email=mike.grigsby@enron.com&list=evening -- Copyright 1998-2001 INO.com. All Rights Reserved.