Message-ID: <6927170.1075855604254.JavaMail.evans@thyme> Date: Thu, 10 May 2001 14:39:00 -0700 (PDT) From: evening@ino.com To: mike.grigsby@enron.com Subject: Trader, Thursday DOW +43.66 USD +0.38 S&P -0.36 CRB +0.32 NAS -27.76 Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-From: "INO.com" X-To: "Trader And INO User" X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \Michael_Grigsby_Jun2001\Notes Folders\Discussion threads X-Origin: Grigsby-M X-FileName: mgrigsb.nsf T H U R S D A Y E X T R E M E M A R K E T S A complimentary service from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ) Thursday: The CRB Index is higher 0.32 points to 214.88. The US Dollar Index moved higher by 0.38 points to 116.37. The Dow Industrials climbed 43.66 points, at 10910.44, while the S&P 500 trended lower by 0.36 points, last seen at 1255.18. The Nasdaq Composite moved down 27.76 points to 2128.87. *** FREE OPTIONS INVESTORS KIT *** http://www.ino.com/specials/barkley/ _____________________________________________________________________ OVER $1.5 MILLION PROFIT IN 1 YEAR _____________________________________________________________________ TWO SOLID PROFIT OPPORTUNITIES EACH AND EVERY DAY http://store.ino.com/sale/1E78A/TWIDT-Insider Dear Trader: George Angell's market analysis and trading methods have generated over $1.5 MILLION in profits in a single year. How does he do it? One of his personal favorites is his SPYGLASS trading method, which can predict market activity well in advance - often within three ticks and five minutes of a major move! ******************************************** * * I made $2,153 yesterday using your ideas * for the first time. 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Sideways trading the past week has negated a fledgling four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls still have some heavy lifting to do and their next upside objective is resistance at the key 2,000 area. First support is seen at the 1,732 area. June S&P 500 futures closed firmer today. Prices have leveled off the past week, after rallying solidly off the early-April low. Technically, bulls still need to push prices above the 1285 resistance area. My bias is still that any recovery in the stock market and the stock indexes won't be dramatic, but a slower grind higher, with fits and starts. First resistance is seen at 1285.00. First support is seen at 1206.00. LIVESTOCK: June live cattle closed $0.28 higher at 70.25 today. Prices scored a consolidative "inside" day on the daily bar chart today. On Wednesday, prices gapped sharply lower and hit a fresh eight-month low. Reports that cash cattle traded $1.00 lower this week sent the futures market tumbling. The June futures are still overextended on the downside, technically, on a short-term basis. The bears are in full control of the market. Prices are trading way below an accelerating two-month-old downtrend line on the daily bar chart. Next support, basis June, is seen at $69.82--Wednesday's low. First resistance comes in at the $70.50 level. August feeder cattle closed up 53 cents today at $80.00. Prices also posted a corrective rebound after the sharp losses Wednesday. Recent history continues to play out, as the market bounced up from the losses of the past two days. But if prices break down below the bottom of the recent trading range, which is right at Wednesday's low of $87.40, then the door is opened to a lower trend down to the January low just above the $86.00 level. Next resistance is seen at $88.30. First support is seen at $87.40. June lean hogs closed firmer today. The bears still have the momentum on their side at present. Next support lies at $67.00--today's low. First resistance is located at the 69.00 level. GRAINS: July corn futures closed 6 3/4 cents lower at $1.98 1/4 today. A bearish USDA report indicating large carryover stocks of corn pushed prices lower today. Prices closed near the session low, after gapping sharply lower on the daily bar chart. Prices were under pressure earlier this week after weekly crop progress reports showed good corn-planting progress in the U.S. The past 25 years of chart history shows nearby corn futures prices do not stay below $2.00 very long. However, the shorter-term technicals are very bearish at present, and would-be bottom pickers don't want to stand in front of a freight train. Next support is now seen at $1.95. Next resistance is seen at today's high of $2.03. July soybeans closed 4 1/2 cents lower at $4.35 today. Prices closed near the session low amid a bearish USDA report released this morning. The bearish report did put pressure on the market, but not the strong pressure corn saw. Traders have factored much of the bearish news into the soybean market. Odds are lessening that a minor bull flag could be forming on the daily bar chart. Bears still have the solid advantage. Fundamentally, there is not much in the way of good news for bulls right now. I would not be surprised to see the commodity funds make another downside push in beans in the near term. It's going to take a significant weather scare this spring or summer to force prices solidly higher. First resistance is seen at the $4.45 area and then $4.50. First support is seen at $4.30. July soybean meal closed off $1.80 at $154.50 today. Prices did not put in that bad of a performance today, given the bearish USDA report. Prices this week are consolidating after they pushed to a fresh eight-week high last Friday. Recent price action is still encouraging to the bulls and is one sign the lows are in place in the meal market. Next resistance comes in at the $158.50 area. First support is seen at $154.00. July bean oil closed 6 points lower at 14.77 cents today. Prices scored a fresh contract low today of 14.75 cents. Oil is technically weaker than beans or meal right now. But I would be surprised if there is much downside left in oil. Next resistance comes in at 15.00 cents. Next support is seen at 14.50 cents. July Chicago wheat closed 2 3/4 cents higher at $2.68 1/2 today. A bullish USDA report boosted wheat higher, but prices did back off from the highs and close near the session low, due mostly to the weakness in corn and soybeans. Prices just Wednesday touched the contract low of $2.65. If prices can post a strong bounce in the next couple sessions, a double-bottom reversal pattern could be forming on the daily bar chart. Bears are in command. Serious technical damage has occurred the past few sessions. First support lies at the contract low of $2.65. Next resistance is seen at $2.73--today's high. K.C. July HRW wheat closed up 5 cents at $3.27 1/4 today. A bullish USDA wheat production figure today boosted HRW. Prices gapped higher on the daily bar chart, but backed well off the highs by the close. It will be important for bulls to show some follow-through strength on Friday. Serious chart damage has been inflicted the past few sessions and bears still rule. For bulls to get back in the ballgame, they need to push prices north and fill the downside gap on the daily bar chart (created last week) by pushing prices to the $3.34 area. That's a tall order right now. Next resistance is seen at the $3.31 level-- today's high. Next support is seen at $3.21 1/2. SOFTS: July N.Y. sugar closed 6 points higher at 9.06 cents today. We now could see a minor bullish pennant forming in sugar, on the daily bar chart. This many times occurs as prices consolidate steep gains. A three-month high was scored in July sugar late last week. The bulls have good momentum and a steep and accelerating six-week-old uptrend line is still in place on the daily bar chart. Next resistance now comes in at 9.25 cents. First support is now seen at 8.80 cents. July N.Y. coffee closed 65 points higher at 68.55 cents today. Prices closed near the session high. The bulls have gained momentum of late. This recent upmove is the most significant showing by the bulls since mid-January. The fact that prices have not sold off sharply the past few sessions is encouraging for the bulls, too--given recent price history. Still, the bears could be setting a trap, like they did in early January. If bulls can push prices above 70 cents and then see follow-through strength, bears will begin to think this uptrend is sustainable. First resistance comes in at 70 cents. First support is seen 65.00 cents. July N.Y. cocoa closed $28 higher today, at $1,050. Prices today matched the six-week high scored yesterday, and finished close to the session high. Tuesday's strong gap-higher trade on the daily bar chart put the bulls back on a level playing field with the bears. If prices can push higher Friday, bulls will have the edge. Prices this week pushed above and negated a 2.5-month-old downtrend line on the daily bar chart. Next resistance comes in at $1,060. First support is now seen at $1,025. July cotton closed 60 points lower at 44.83 cents today. Prices scored a new contract low in the wake of a bearish USDA report. However, most traders did expect the bearish figures in the report--namely high carryover stocks. Cotton is presently in a strong bear market. Right now, any rebounds are likely to be just selling opportunities for the bears. But, my bias is still that we are not that far from a bottoming process. Next support lies at 44.00 cents. First resistance is seen around 47.00 cents. Would-be bottom-pickers should beware. July orange juice futures closed 80 points higher today, at 79.50 cents. Prices closed near the session high again today after Wednesday pushing higher and filling an important downside gap area on the daily bar chart. Today's USDA report was termed mostly neutral by the trade. Bulls are gaining confidence after the past two days' action. Next resistance is now seen at 80.00 cents. Next support comes in at 78.00 cents. METALS: June COMEX gold closed off $0.90 today, at $269.50. Prices corrected a bit today after Wednesday's strong gains that pushed prices to a two-month high. This market is in a nice uptrend since scoring its early-April low. This week's type of price action is what bulls needed to gain confidence to trek farther north on the chart. Next resistance is located at $273. First support is seen at $268.00. July silver closed down $0.065 today, at $4.35 an ounce. Prices sold off sharply today after rallying sharply Wednesday. This should not surprise many. Silver prices are still not that far above the contract low. Prices are chopping at lower levels, and this suggests a "basing" action that many markets need to change the trend from down, to sideways, to eventually up. Next support is seen at $4.30. First resistance is seen at $4.425. Bears still have the advantage. July N.Y. copper closed 40 points lower today, at 75.95 cents. Prices today matched the contract low scored in early April. The stock market and the U.S. economy will have to be healthy before the bulls can really get something going in copper. Next resistance is seen at 77.00 cents. Next support is seen at 75.00 cents. ENERGIES: July crude closed $0.12 higher at $29.06 today. Prices closed well off the high of $29.43. Bulls and bears are still at a stand-off, but bull will gain the edge on a move above $29.50. Expect more choppy trading. Next support is seen at 28.00. Next resistance lies at $29.50. July heating oil closed 5 points higher today, at .7715. Bulls still have the slight edge. Look for more choppy trading in the near future. Next support is seen at 75.00 cents. Next resistance is seen at 79.00 cents. July unleaded gasoline closed 29 points lower at 1.0040 today. Prices scored a new contract high just Monday. Bulls are still in command as peak driving season nears. Top-pickers beware! Next resistance is seen at $1.03. First support is seen at $.9780. July natural gas closed 13.7 cents higher at $4.41 today. After, prices hit a fresh five-and-one-half-month Wednesday, we saw a corrective bounce today. Next support is seen at $4.20 and first resistance is at $4.50. This market is still short-term oversold, technically. FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The June Euro currency closed 32 points lower at .8812 today. Prices scored a bearish "outside day" down today and pushed to a fresh four-week low. Bears have the edge. The European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates today, which initially boosted the Euro, but those gains were short-lived. My bias is still that there is not much downside left in the Euro. Look for more choppy action in the near term. Next support is now seen at .8750. Next resistance is seen at .8900. The June Japanese yen closed 33 points lower at .8190 today. Bears are in control. Bulls are hoping for some "basing" activity at lower levels, and that may be occurring, although it's too early to tell. Next support now lies at the .8100 level. First resistance is seen at the .8326 level. The June Swiss franc closed 3 points lower at .5744. Bears are in command as prices scored a bearish "outside day" down on the daily bar chart today. Prices pushed to a fresh four-week low today. Still, my bias is that prices won't deteriorate much more. Next support is seen at the .5700 level. First resistance comes in at the .5800 level. The June Australian dollar futures closed unchanged at .5234 today. Prices pushed to another fresh two-month high today. The bulls have the advantage as a six-week-old uptrend line is in place on the daily bar chart. First resistance is now seen at .5300. First support is now seen at .5200. The June Canadian dollar closed 20 points lower today, at .6478. Monday's key reversal does not indicate prices are headed back toward the lows seen a few weeks ago. What it does suggest is a downside correction to the recent gains may occur over the near term. Bulls still have the slight edge, on a short-term basis. This currency had been near recent historic lows and I do not think there is much more downside. Next resistance is seen at the .6548 level. First support is seen at the .6450 level. The June British pound closed 18 points higher at 1.4218. Trading continues choppy at lower levels. This currency was not that far above recent historic lows and I do not think there is much more downside in the sterling. One could argue that price action the past few weeks has been a "basing" before prices eventually turn north. A move above the 1.4500 level would be considered a bullish "upside breakout" from the recent congestion area. A move below 1.4100 would be considered a bearish downside breakout. Next support is now seen at the 1.4160 level. Next resistance comes in at the 1.4300 level. The June U.S. dollar index closed 30 points higher at 116.52 today. Prices scored a bullish "outside day" up on the daily bar chart, and pushed to a fresh four-week high. Bulls have the momentum in the near term. Next resistance lies at the 117.00 level. First support is seen at the 115.50 area. My bias is still that a near-term top is in place in the dollar index, but if prices push above the 117.00 area in the near term, odds increase that a new high will be scored. June U.S. T-bonds closed 1 6/32 lower today at 101 1/32. Bulls today lost most of the momentum they had gained last week. A surprise interest rate cut by the European Central Bank pressured the U.S. debt market. See more on the bond market in this evening's newsletter. Next support is seen at 100 even--par. First resistance is seen at 102 16/32 level. The June U.S. T-note closed off 27.0 (32nds) today at 104.12.5. Bears have the slight edge and prices scored a bearish "outside day" down on the daily bar chart today. First support is seen at the 104.00.0 level. First resistance is seen at 105.10.5--today's high. Daily Extreme Commentary is brought to you by GLOBALcharts, INO.com's end-of-day charting software for Futures, Futures Options and Optionable Stocks. http://www.globalcharts.com Search the INO Store - http://store.ino.com/ _____________________________________________________________________ T O P N E W S _____________________________________________________________________ STOCKS Japan Stocks Review: Nikkei falls 0.48% ahead of Friday's fixing http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25286 US Equities Review: Nasdaq slips; Retailers, cyclicals support DJIA http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25285 UK Stocks Review: Rate cuts boost fails to push FTSE over 6,000 http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25292 FOREX US FX Review: Euro buckles after surprise ECB interest rate cut http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25288 Asia FX Review: Trading stuck in a tight range in Asia http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25293 Europe FX Review: Euro slides on surprise ECB rate cut http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25287 CREDIT US Credit Review: Bond dn 1 5/32, weekly jobs data spark sales http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25284 Europe Credit Review: Curve steepens sharply on surprise ECB cut http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25289 Japan Credit Review: Jun posts small gains in range-bound trades http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25291 COMMODITIES US Futures Summary: USDA data sink corn, cotton; natural gas up http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25290 EXCHANGES CFTC And SEC Propose Joint Rules For Security Futures http://news.ino.com/press/?release=23937 Pacific Exchange To Trade Options on Agere Systems Inc. http://news.ino.com/press/?release=23936 Minneapolis Wheat Options Open Interest Tops 10,000 http://news.ino.com/press/?release=23567 Single-Day Volume Record For Kansas Wheat Options http://news.ino.com/press/?release=23566 ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E F U T U R E S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/futures/ WINNERS BDN1 Oriented Strand Board Jul 2001 220.00 8.00 +3.77 NGM1 Henry Hub Natural Gas Jun 2001 4.348 0.153 +3.64 CCK1 Cocoa May 2001 1096 30 +2.81 ZM1 U.S. Treasury 6% Bond Jun 2001 103 184/256 2 22/32 +2.66 XHM1 Lean Hogs Jun 2001 68.55 1.73 +2.59 LHM1 Lean Hogs Jun 2001 68.400 1.475 +2.20 ERY0 FTSE Eurotop 100 Cash 3333.7 69.2 +2.12 PBG2 Frozen Pork Bellies Feb 2002 70.200 1.300 +1.85 KWK1 Wheat May 2001 320 5 +1.59 HOK2 Heating Oil May 2002 0.7056 0.0105 +1.49 LOSERS XCN1 Corn Jul 2001 198 1/4 -6 3/4 -3.29 CN1 Corn Jul 2001 198 1/4 -6 3/4 -3.29 NGQ3 Henry Hub Natural Gas Aug 2003 4.067 -0.120 -2.95 ON1 Oats Jul 2001 108 3/4 -3 1/4 -2.90 PAM1 Palladium Jun 2001 660.60 -14.00 -2.08 SK2 Soybeans May 2002 447 1/2 -8 1/2 -1.86 NDM1 NASDAQ 100 Index Jun 2001 1841.00 -34.50 -1.84 SMH2 Soybean Meal Mar 2002 146.5 -2.7 -1.81 SIU1 Silver Sep 2001 4.375 -0.076 -1.71 XSX1 Soybeans Nov 2001 422 1/4 -7 1/4 -1.69 ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E S T O C K S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/stocks/ WINNERS INGN Introgen Therapeutics 7.16 2.56 +55.65 FHRX FIRST HORIZON PHARMAC'L 24.66 5.44 +28.19 SRV SERVICE CORP INTL 5.86 1.23 +26.39 ROYL ROYALE ENERGY 15.06 3.13 +26.30 CVST Covista Communications 5.90 1.21 +22.83 NICK NICHOLAS FINANCIAL INC 7.00 1.11 +17.76 BIOI BIOSOURCE INTL 10.45 1.54 +17.26 PLCE CHILDREN'S PLACE RETAIL STORES 28.58 4.18 +17.13 FPIC FPIC INSURANCE GRP 11.45 1.68 +17.11 MEDM MEDAMICUS INC 7.55 1.04 +15.52 LOSERS CTLM CENTILLIUM COMMUNICATIONS(IPO) 23.59 -8.00 -25.33 MAXC MAXCO INC 7.50 -1.43 -19.07 VGIN VISIBLE GENETICS 15.05 -2.91 -16.62 AMCV AMER CLASSIC VOYAGES 5.45 -1.07 -16.34 RTIX REGENERATION TECHNOLOGIES 11.29 -2.17 -16.30 MCRI MONARCH CASINO & RESORT 5.45 -0.85 -15.45 USLBW U.S. LABORATORIES WRRT 5.95 -0.94 -15.44 APCS ALAMOSA PCS HLDGS 12.30 -2.18 -15.18 QLTI QLT INC 23.81 -4.05 -14.54 AETH AETHER SYSTEMS 13.48 -2.26 -14.37 FREE MANAGED FUTURES & IRA RETIREMENT KIT http://www.ino.com/specials/icm/ _____________________________________________________________________ T H A N K Y O U _____________________________________________________________________ Thank you for subscribing to the Extreme Markets Daily Digest from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ). 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