Message-ID: <2580094.1075855609246.JavaMail.evans@thyme> Date: Tue, 8 May 2001 14:46:00 -0700 (PDT) From: evening@ino.com To: mike.grigsby@enron.com Subject: Trader, Tuesday NAS +25.20 USD +0.69 CRB -0.02 DOW -51.66 S&P -2.33 Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-From: "INO.com" X-To: "Trader And INO User" X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \Michael_Grigsby_Jun2001\Notes Folders\Notes inbox X-Origin: Grigsby-M X-FileName: mgrigsb.nsf T U E S D A Y E X T R E M E M A R K E T S A complimentary service from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ) Tuesday: The CRB Index is down 0.02 points to 214.60. The US Dollar Index climbed 0.69 points to 116.08. The Dow Industrials fell 51.66 points, at 10883.51, while the S&P 500 trended lower by 2.33 points, last seen at 1261.18. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 25.20 points to 2198.77. 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Order Toll Free 800-538-7424 - 410-867-7424 All claims on third-party products are made by the publisher and not by INO.com. All Products Guaranteed. _____________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E M A R K E T C O M M E N T A R Y _____________________________________________________________________ The stock market closed mixed today. June Nasdaq prices are still within striking distance of the April high of 1995. Sideways trading the past week has negated a fledgling four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls still have some heavy lifting to do and their next upside objective is resistance at the key 2,000 area. First support is seen at the 1,732 area. June S&P 500 futures closed firmer today. Prices have leveled off the past week, after rallying solidly off the early-April low. Technically, bulls still need to push prices above the 1285 resistance area. My bias is still that any recovery in the stock market and the stock indexes won't be dramatic, but a slower grind higher, with fits and starts. First resistance is seen at 1285.00. First support is seen at 1206.00. LIVESTOCK: June live cattle closed 2 cents higher at 71.12. Prices closed at the session low and managed to fill an upside gap on the daily bar chart that was created in early trading. The market saw another upside corrective bounce earlier today, after punching to a fresh 6.5-month low last Friday. The bears are in control of the market. Prices are still trading below an accelerating two-month-old downtrend line on the daily bar chart. The market is still a bit short-term oversold, and I would not be surprised to see more of an upside correction this week. Next support, basis June, is seen at $71.00. First resistance now comes in at the $72.00 level. August feeder cattle closed up 3 cents today at $88.25. Prices closed at the session low today. Range-bound trade continues. As this market neared the bottom end of the recent trading range, which is around $87.50, the market again took an upside bias. Look for more choppy trading between $89 and $87.50. If prices can break out of that aforementioned range, the direction of the breakout will likely be the direction of the next significant trend. Next resistance is seen at $88.70-- today's high. First support is seen at $88.00. June lean hogs closed $0.15 higher today, at $67.50. Prices are still showing consolidation at lower levels, after the sell off last week. Hogs are still a bit overdone on the downside, on a short-term basis, so some more corrective upside consolidation would not surprise me. Still, the bears have the strong momentum on their side at present. Next support lies at $66.25. First resistance is located at the 68.15 level--today's high. GRAINS: July corn futures closed off 3 cents at $2.05 today. Crop progress reports out Monday evening showing very good planting progress in the U.S. weighed on the corn market today. There is just not much bullish fundamental news in the corn market right now. The weak wheat market is also weighing on corn. On Monday, respected Iowa State University Climatologist Elwynn Taylor predicted record yields for the Corn Belt this year. It would not surprise me to see the commodity funds make another significant downside assault on the corn and bean markets in the near term. Next support is now seen at $2.00. Next resistance is seen at the $2.07 1/2 level--today's high. July soybeans closed 2 3/4 cents higher at $4.40 1/2 today. Prices are consolidating the recent gains, but bulls still by no means have any significant momentum. Fundamentally, there is not much in the way of good news for bulls right now. I would not be surprised to see the commodity funds make another downside push in beans in the near term. This market is still in technical trouble and it's going to take a significant weather scare this spring or summer to force prices solidly higher. First resistance is seen at the $4.45 area and then $4.50. First support is seen at $4.35 and then at $4.30. July soybean meal closed off $1.10 at $155.70 today. Prices this week are showing a corrective pullback after they pushed to a fresh eight-week high last Friday. Recent price action is still encouraging to the bulls and is a sign the lows are in place in the meal market. Next resistance comes in at the $158.50 area. First support is seen at $154.00. July bean oil closed 22 points higher at 15.09 cents today. Prices saw a corrective bounce today after dropping to a new contract low of 14.76 cents on Monday. This market is technically much weaker than beans or meal, and is still a bit overdone on the downside, on a short-term basis. I would be surprised if there is much downside left in oil. Next resistance comes in at 15.25 cents. Next support is seen at the contract low of 14.76 cents. July Chicago wheat closed 2 1/2 cents lower at $2.66 3/4 today. Prices poked to a new contract low of $2.65. More rain in the Plains has cast a bearish pall over the market. With the wheat crop behind schedule anyway, the recent rains could allow the crop to make some good improvement. Bears are in full command. Just last week, prices pushed to a fresh six-week high. Serious technical damage has occurred the past few sessions. First support lies at the contract low of $2.65. Next resistance is seen at $2.70. This market is short-term oversold and I suspect we'll see a corrective bounce soon. SOFTS: July N.Y. sugar closed 18 points higher at 9.10 cents today. We could see a bull flag starting to form in sugar, on the daily bar chart. This many times occurs as prices consolidate steep gains. A three-month high was scored in July sugar late last week. The bulls have good momentum and a steep and accelerating five-week-old uptrend line is still in place on the daily bar chart. Next resistance now comes in at 9.25 cents. First support is now seen at 8.80 cents. July N.Y. coffee closed 15 points higher at 68.90 cents today. Prices pushed to another fresh two-month high today as the bulls continue to gain momentum. This recent move is the most significant showing by the bulls since mid-January. The fact that prices have not sold off sharply the past three sessions is encouraging for the bulls, too--given recent price history. Still, the bears could be setting a trap, like they did in early January. If bulls can push prices above 70 cents and then see follow-through strength, bears will begin to think this uptrend is sustainable. First resistance comes in at 70 cents. First support is seen 65.00 cents. July N.Y. cocoa closed $55 higher today, at $1,044. Today's strong gap-higher trade on the daily bar chart put the bulls back on a level playing field with the bears in a hurry. Prices pushed above and negated a 2.5-month-old downtrend line on the daily bar chart. Next resistance comes in at $1,050 and then $1,060. First support is now seen at today's low of $1,001. July cotton closed 99 points lower at 45.44 cents today. Cotton is in a strong bear market, and a new contract low was scored just today, at 45.40 cents. Right now, any rebounds are likely to be just selling opportunities for the bears. But, my bias is still that we are not that far from a bottoming process. Next support lies at 45.00 cents. First resistance is seen around 48.00 cents. Would-be bottom-pickers should beware. Bulls need to watch for some "basing" action, which may be beginning. July orange juice futures closed 45 points lower today, at 76.95 cents. Prices late last week probed into an important gap area on the daily bar chart, which begins at 77.85 cents, but did not fill that gap on the upside. Bears rule and the market is still technically weak. However, if the aforementioned gap can be filled on the upside, that's an important first step for the bulls in turning the market around. That gap will be filled if prices move above 78.55 cents, which is first resistance. Next support comes in at 76.00 cents. July lumber futures closed $2.60 lower at $308.40 today. Prices just Monday hit yet a new for-the-move high, at $313.20, as the bull market roars on. Today's price action is just some healthy consolidation in a bull market. Expect more volatility, however, as is typical for this market. The next upside objective for the bulls is the $315.00 area. First support is seen at the $300.00 area. This market is still short-term overbought, technically, and I would not be surprised to see a decent downside correction soon. METALS: June COMEX gold closed down $1.00 today, at $265.50. Prices late last week pushed to a new seven-week high. Despite recent choppy trading, this market is still trending up from its early-April low. But bulls need to see some solid upside movement soon to keep what momentum they have recently gained. But the fact that prices have not sold way off after the rally is encouraging to the bulls. Next resistance is located at $268. First support is seen at $264.00. July silver closed up $0.008 today, at $4.335 an ounce. Prices are not that far above the contract low. Still, prices are chopping at lower levels. This suggests a "basing" action that many markets need to change the trend from down, to sideways, to eventually up. Next support is seen at $4.30. First resistance is seen at $4.41. Bears still have the advantage. July N.Y. copper closed 1.80 cents lower today, at 76.85 cents. Stock market weakness helped drive this market lower today. Prices are still attempting to build a base and recover from the early-April low. My bias is still that the downside is limited for copper. The stock market and the U.S. economy will have to be healthy before the bulls can really get something going in copper, however. Next resistance is seen at 78.00 cents. Next support is seen at 76.00 cents. ENERGIES: July crude closed $0.19 lower at $28.35 today. Bulls and bears are at a stand-off and will duke it out over the near term. Expect more choppy trading. Next support is seen at 28.00. Next resistance lies at $29.50. July heating oil closed 30 points higher today, at .7551. Bulls still have the slight edge, but look for more choppy trading in the near future. Next support is seen at 73.00 cents. Next resistance is seen at 77.50 cents. July unleaded gasoline closed 128 points lower at .9898 today. Prices scored a new contract high just Monday, and saw follow-through selling today. That confirms a key reversal in this market. But given the recent volatility in unleaded, I am not placing a lot of emphasis on this key reversal. Bulls are still in command as peak driving season nears. Top-pickers beware! Next resistance is seen at $1.03. First support is seen at $.9600. July natural gas closed 3.6 cents higher at $4.35 today. Today was just an upside correction in a steep downtrend. Prices hit a fresh five-and-one-half-month low Monday. Next support is seen at $4.25 and first resistance is now at $4.50. This market is still short-term oversold, technically. FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The June Euro currency closed 62 points lower at .8828 today. Bears have the decided edge again as bulls have lost all the momentum they had gained in mid-April. My bias is still that there is not much downside left in the Euro. Look for more choppy action in the near term. Bulls will again gain good momentum if they can push prices above the .9075 area. Next support is now seen at .8800. Next resistance is seen at .9000. The June Japanese yen closed 5 points lower at .8279 today. Prices pushed to a fresh six-week high last Friday, but bears are still in control. Bulls are hoping for some "basing" activity at lower levels, and that may be occurring, although it's too early to tell. Next support now lies at the .8100 level. First resistance is seen at the .8326 level. The June Swiss franc closed 36 points lower today, at .5739. Bears are in command. Still, my bias is that prices won't deteriorate much more. Next support is seen at the .5700 level. First resistance comes in at the .5830 level. The June Australian dollar futures closed 37 points lower at .5150 today. Prices pushed to a fresh two-month high late last week and are consolidating a bit this week. The bulls still have the advantage as a five-week-old uptrend line is in place on the daily bar chart. My bias is that the lows are in place. First resistance is now seen at .5250. First support is now seen at .5100. The June Canadian dollar closed 14 points lower today, at .6464. Prices sold off some more today after the key reversal down on the daily bar chart that was scored Monday. Bulls had good momentum, but have lost some the past two sessions. The key reversal does not indicate prices are headed back toward the lows seen a few weeks ago. What it does suggest is a decent downside correction to the recent gains will occur over the near term. This currency had been near recent historic lows and I do not think there is much more downside. Next resistance is seen at the .6548 level. First support is seen at the .6450 level. The June British pound closed 126 points lower at 1.4244. Trading continues choppy at lower levels. This currency was not that far above recent historic lows and I do not think there is much more downside in the sterling. One could argue that price action the past few weeks has been a "basing" before prices eventually turn north. A move above the 1.4500 level would be considered a bullish "upside breakout" from the recent congestion area. Next support is now seen at the 1.4200 level. Next resistance comes in at the 1.4400 level. The June U.S. dollar index closed 75 points higher at 116.24 today. Bulls are regaining momentum. The recent double-top reversal on the daily bar chart still favors the bears longer-term. Next resistance lies at the 116.50 level. First support is seen at the 114.50 area. My bias is still that a near-term top is in place in the dollar index. June U.S. T-bonds closed 17/32 lower today at 101 21/32. Prices scored a bearish "outside day" down on the daily bar chart today, whereby the high was higher and the low was lower than the previous session's trading range, with a lower close. Bulls need to show some resolve soon, after pushing prices well off the lows scored in late April. A steep six-week-old downtrend line was penetrated on the upside last week and negated. Also, a minor double-bottom reversal has occurred on the daily bar chart. Next resistance is seen at 103 9/32. First support is seen at 101 even. Daily Extreme Commentary is brought to you by GLOBALcharts, INO.com's end-of-day charting software for Futures, Futures Options and Optionable Stocks. http://www.globalcharts.com Search the INO Store - http://store.ino.com/ _____________________________________________________________________ T O P N E W S _____________________________________________________________________ STOCKS Japan Stocks Review: Nikkei down 1.7%, banks battered http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25266 Add 1: US Equities Review: Mixed in quiet trade; Cisco boosts Nasdaq http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25264 UK Stocks Review: FTSE-100 slightly higher in lackluster session http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25272 FOREX US FX Review: Dollar weathers poor domestic productivity data http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25268 Asia FX Review: Yen weakens on fall in Japan stocks http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25265 Europe FX Review: Poor data fails to undermine dollar http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25267 CREDIT US Credit Review: Bond down 24/32, underperforming 2-year http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25263 Europe Credit Review: Curve unmoved; mkt awaits central banks http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25269 Japan Credit Review: June up on firm 10-year cash bonds http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25271 COMMODITIES US Futures Summary: Cotton, copper, corn crumble; cocoa climbs http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25270 EXCHANGES PCX To Trade KPMG
and Corrections to Lafarge and Catapult http://news.ino.com/press/?release=23560 Daily Price Limit Change For Value Line Futures http://news.ino.com/press/?release=23559 ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E F U T U R E S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/futures/ WINNERS BDK1 Oriented Strand Board May 2001 211.00 16.00 +8.21 CCN1 Cocoa Jul 2001 1044 56 +5.66 XWK1 Wheat May 2001 269 1/4 9 3/4 +3.76 RRK1 Rough Rice May 2001 5.680 0.140 +2.53 PBK1 Frozen Pork Bellies May 2001 80.300 1.750 +2.23 ZM1 U.S. Treasury 6% Bond Jun 2001 103 184/256 2 2/32 +2.03 NDM1 NASDAQ 100 Index Jun 2001 1940.00 37.00 +1.94 SBN1 Sugar #11 World Jul 2001 9.10 0.15 +1.68 BOK1 Soybean Oil May 2001 14.84 0.24 +1.64 DBK1 Butter May 2001 189.000 3.000 +1.61 LOSERS NTM1 Nikkei 300 Jun 2001 283.8 -7.7 -2.64 HGN1 Copper Jul 2001 0.7685 -0.0180 -2.29 ON1 Oats Jul 2001 112 -2 1/2 -2.18 CTN1 Cotton Jul 2001 45.44 -0.98 -2.11 LBX1 Random Length Lumber Nov 2001 289.00 -5.70 -1.95 HUM1 New York Harbor Unleaded Gasoline Jun 20 1.0444 -0.0201 -1.89 CLM1 Light Sweet Crude Oil Jun 2001 27.39 -0.47 -1.69 CU1 Corn Sep 2001 212 3/4 -3 1/4 -1.50 PNU1 Propane Sep 2001 0.5275 -0.0075 -1.42 PLV1 Platinum Oct 2001 599.8 -8 -1.32 ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E S T O C K S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/stocks/ WINNERS CBTE COMMONWEALTH BIOTECHNOLOGIES 7.04 3.33 +86.49 HELE HELEN OF TROY LTD 8.65 2.16 +33.91 AVN AVANIR PHARMACEUTICALS'A' 5.40 1.22 +29.19 GNSS GENESIS MICROCHIP 18.99 3.70 +24.42 TREE LENDINGTREE INC 6.09 1.08 +22.04 NXTV NEXT LEVEL COMMUNICATION 8.65 1.43 +19.62 ISSX INTERNET SECURITY SYSTEMS INC 59.87 8.81 +17.23 MTH MERITAGE CORP 52.05 7.64 +17.20 MM MUTUAL RISK MANAGEMENT 8.10 1.14 +16.38 CATZ Computer Access Tech 5.80 0.82 +16.24 LOSERS INOD INNODATA CORP 6.57 -2.40 -26.73 AMCV AMER CLASSIC VOYAGES 6.95 -2.48 -26.72 TRK SPEEDWAY MOTORSPORTS 22.80 -5.67 -19.97 AMCVP AMCV CAP TR I 19.00 -4.50 -19.57 CKCM CLICK COMMERCE 14.47 -3.37 -19.40 MAXC MAXCO INC 7.50 -1.43 -19.07 NEOL NEOPHARM INC 22.26 -4.03 -15.68 CANI CARREKER CORP 17.96 -3.27 -15.41 VITL VITAL SIGNS 35.05 -6.12 -14.85 MCHM MACROCHEM CORP 8.01 -1.25 -13.41 FREE MANAGED FUTURES & IRA RETIREMENT KIT http://www.ino.com/specials/icm/ _____________________________________________________________________ T H A N K Y O U _____________________________________________________________________ Thank you for subscribing to the Extreme Markets Daily Digest from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ). If you want to subscribe to our other email services, or would like to modify your profile please visit http://www.ino.com/email/. To subscribe a friend, visit: http://www.ino.com/email/ To unsubscribe, visit: http://www.ino.com/email/remove/?email=mike.grigsby@enron.com&list=evening -- Copyright 1998-2001 INO.com. All Rights Reserved.