Message-ID: <6270377.1075862449386.JavaMail.evans@thyme> Date: Fri, 23 Nov 2001 06:10:24 -0800 (PST) From: tradersummary@syncrasy.com To: vkamins@ect.enron.com Subject: Syncrasy Daily Trader Summary for Fri, Nov 23, 2001 Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ANSI_X3.4-1968 Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-From: tradersummary@syncrasy.com@ENRON X-To: vkamins@ect.enron.com X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \VKAMINS (Non-Privileged)\Kaminski, Vince J\Deleted Items X-Origin: Kaminski-V X-FileName: VKAMINS (Non-Privileged).pst [IMAGE]=09 [IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE] Syncrasy, = LLC? 713.228.8470 Off 713.228.4147 Fax 909 Texas Avenue Suite 1314 H= ouston, TX 77002 www.syncrasy.com Sales: 713.228.4407 D= evelopment Offices: 970.247.4139 Off 970.247.7951 Fax 835 Main Avenue = Suite 221 Durango, CO 81301 =09 =09 [IMAGE] Complimentary version= of Trader Summary from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc. - If you woul= d like to receive this product early in the morning please call Syncr= asy at 713 228 4407 for more information or send an email to subscrib= e_TraderSummary@syncrasy.com - If you would like to be added to this da= ily email list please send an email to TraderSummaryemail@syncrasy.co= m - If you would like to be removed from this daily email please = reply to this email with the words "CANCEL" or send an email to cancel_trad= ersummary@syncrasy.com Data last updated: Friday, Nov 23, 2001 at 08:= 30AM EST Congratulations Andy Weingarten, APB Energy! Winner of the $50= ,000 Winter 2000-01 AQUILA/AMS Seasonal Forecasting Competition. For more i= nformation please visit: AMS or Aquila Click here for a definition of '= Average-Daily Maximum Temperature' Today: Friday, November 23, 2001 S= yncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAG= E][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR= ) 58 +1 ERCOT(SP) 77 +1 FRCC(SE) 78 -1 MAAC(NE) 57 -1 MAIN(CTR) 56 -1 MAPP(= HP) 48 +1 NPCC(NE) 50 NC SERC(SE) 67 -2 SPP(SP) 66 +3 WSCC(NW) 47 +2 WSCC(R= K) 40 +1 WSCC(SW) 59 +2 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg = CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 52 45 48 41 33 67 70 54 Max 57 49 55 47 41 71 = 75 59 Min 50 43 44 38 29 65 63 50 Range 7 6 11 9 12 6 12 9 StD-P 1.8 2.2 3.= 7 2.7 3.5 1.7 3.2 2.8 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here to See Each= Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Tomorrow: Saturday, N= ovember 24, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [= IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) = [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 63 -2 ERCOT(SP) 70 NC FRCC(SE) 81 NC MAAC(NE) 59 -3 M= AIN(CTR) 60 +1 MAPP(HP) 47 NC NPCC(NE) 56 +1 SERC(SE) 70 -1 SPP(SP) 59 NC W= SCC(NW) 43 -1 WSCC(RK) 37 +1 WSCC(SW) 56 +2 Range Standard Deviation [I= MAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 55 40 54 38 31 70 63 52 Ma= x 59 44 60 43 38 72 69 58 Min 53 38 50 35 25 68 55 48 Range 6 6 10 8 13 4 1= 4 10 StD-P 1.5 1.7 2.2 2.4 3.8 1.7 3.7 2.6 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Cl= ick Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix = Day 3: Sunday, November 25, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volati= lity Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on im= age to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 56 -1 ERCOT(SP) 69 NC FRCC(SE) 80 +1 = MAAC(NE) 62 NC MAIN(CTR) 50 +1 MAPP(HP) 39 +1 NPCC(NE) 57 -1 SERC(SE) 68 NC= SPP(SP) 60 +1 WSCC(NW) 42 -1 WSCC(RK) 40 NC WSCC(SW) 55 -1 Range Stand= ard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 46 39 56 3= 7 37 67 62 50 Max 48 43 59 43 45 71 69 55 Min 44 36 52 33 33 64 53 48 Range= 4 7 7 10 12 7 16 7 StD-P 1.2 2.0 1.1 2.3 3.1 2.1 4.7 2.3 Count 10 10 10 10= 10 10 10 10 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volat= ility Matrix Day 4: Monday, November 26, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta= Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE= ] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 54 +1 ERCOT(SP) 72 +1 = FRCC(SE) 79 +1 MAAC(NE) 59 +1 MAIN(CTR) 50 +1 MAPP(HP) 39 +1 NPCC(NE) 54 +2= SERC(SE) 68 NC SPP(SP) 59 +1 WSCC(NW) 39 -2 WSCC(RK) 29 -3 WSCC(SW) 54 NC = Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW = Mean 44 36 50 34 24 66 64 46 Max 48 39 55 39 33 70 69 54 Min 42 33 48 30 19= 64 56 44 Range 6 6 7 9 14 6 13 10 StD-P 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.2 3.0 1.8 4.3 2.2 Co= unt 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within th= e Volatility Matrix Day 5: Tuesday, November 27, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice= : Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAG= E][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 54 +3 ERCOT(SP= ) 68 NC FRCC(SE) 79 +1 MAAC(NE) 56 NC MAIN(CTR) 43 NC MAPP(HP) 28 -2 NPCC(N= E) 49 NC SERC(SE) 67 +1 SPP(SP) 48 -2 WSCC(NW) 40 -2 WSCC(RK) 24 -6 WSCC(SW= ) 53 -3 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK S= E SP SW Mean 44 22 44 33 18 66 58 45 Max 48 26 51 40 28 69 64 53 Min 41 18 = 40 27 14 64 54 42 Range 7 8 11 13 14 5 10 11 StD-P 1.8 2.0 2.5 2.5 2.9 1.4 = 2.9 2.7 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used= Within the Volatility Matrix Day 6: Wednesday, November 28, 2001 Syncr= asy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][I= MAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 49= +3 ERCOT(SP) 59 -5 FRCC(SE) 78 +1 MAAC(NE) 56 +3 MAIN(CTR) 37 -2 MAPP(HP) = 23 -4 NPCC(NE) 48 +1 SERC(SE) 62 +1 SPP(SP) 42 -6 WSCC(NW) 42 NC WSCC(RK) 2= 5 -8 WSCC(SW) 56 NC Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT H= P NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 34 15 51 34 19 65 47 49 Max 37 22 55 42 30 66 55 5= 6 Min 32 10 48 24 15 64 39 43 Range 5 12 7 18 15 2 16 13 StD-P 1.5 3.9 1.6 = 3.6 4.0 0.5 4.1 3.3 Count 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 Click Here to See Each Weather F= orecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 7: Thursday, November 29, 2= 001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE]= [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] E= CAR(CTR) 39 -4 ERCOT(SP) 61 -4 FRCC(SE) 74 -3 MAAC(NE) 51 +2 MAIN(CTR) 34 -= 5 MAPP(HP) 24 -7 NPCC(NE) 49 +6 SERC(SE) 55 -4 SPP(SP) 48 -4 WSCC(NW) 44 +3= WSCC(RK) 38 NC WSCC(SW) 60 +3 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]= Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 28 23 52 37 34 60 50 51 Max 31 29 56 44= 43 63 58 60 Min 24 14 48 29 24 56 44 46 Range 7 15 8 15 19 7 14 14 StD-P 2= .2 3.7 2.6 4.8 6.3 2.4 4.4 3.3 Count 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 Click Here to See Eac= h Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 8: Friday, Novem= ber 30, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAG= E][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [I= MAGE] ECAR(CTR) 30 -4 ERCOT(SP) 63 -1 FRCC(SE) 61 -8 MAAC(NE) 31 -5 MAIN(= CTR) 32 -4 MAPP(HP) 29 -7 NPCC(NE) 45 +11 SERC(SE) 46 -6 SPP(SP) 58 +4 WSCC= (NW) 33 +1 WSCC(RK) 33 +4 WSCC(SW) 50 +2 Range Standard Deviation [IMAG= E] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 33 31 41 34 32 56 61 50 Max 4= 0 38 44 41 43 65 69 59 Min 26 19 37 30 22 49 50 45 Range 14 19 7 11 21 16 1= 9 14 StD-P 3.9 5.3 1.9 2.5 5.4 5.4 5.0 2.8 Count 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 Click Here= to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 9: S= aturday, December 1, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility M= atrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to= enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 40 NC ERCOT(SP) 62 -8 FRCC(SE) 67 -1 MAAC(N= E) 42 +4 MAIN(CTR) 37 -5 MAPP(HP) 26 -3 NPCC(NE) 37 +6 SERC(SE) 55 -2 SPP(S= P) 49 -11 WSCC(NW) 36 +3 WSCC(RK) 24 -6 WSCC(SW) 47 +1 Range Standard D= eviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 37 26 41 35 25 = 60 59 48 Max 50 30 51 38 27 67 66 49 Min 26 20 36 33 23 52 55 47 Range 24 1= 0 15 5 4 15 11 2 StD-P 5.6 3.1 4.6 1.9 1.3 4.7 2.3 0.5 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 = 6 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matri= x Day 10: Sunday, December 2, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. V= olatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click = on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 34 -14 ERCOT(SP) 57 -8 FRCC(SE) = 69 NC MAAC(NE) 45 -6 MAIN(CTR) 29 -13 MAPP(HP) 26 -2 NPCC(NE) 42 NC SERC(SE= ) 55 -9 SPP(SP) 45 -11 WSCC(NW) 37 +3 WSCC(RK) 29 NC WSCC(SW) 48 -1 Ran= ge Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 30= 27 43 35 26 59 52 45 Max 34 34 54 37 29 64 54 49 Min 29 16 34 31 21 55 48 = 41 Range 5 18 20 6 8 9 6 8 StD-P 1.5 5.0 5.4 2.0 2.9 2.8 2.4 3.2 Count 6 6 = 6 6 6 6 6 6 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volati= lity Matrix Trader Summary is designed around and formatted for the [IM= AGE]Plasma displays, RainbowWall? and DataWall? Trader Summary can also b= e viewed from www.syncrasy.com or www.apbenergy.com or www.truequote= .com [IMAGE] =09 =09=09=09