Message-ID: <31143134.1075840758821.JavaMail.evans@thyme> Date: Fri, 18 Jan 2002 06:51:11 -0800 (PST) From: tradersummary@syncrasy.com To: vkamins@ect.enron.com Subject: Syncrasy Daily Trader Summary for Fri, Jan 18, 2002 Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ANSI_X3.4-1968 Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-From: tradersummary@syncrasy.com@ENRON X-To: vkamins@ect.enron.com X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \vkamins\Deleted Items X-Origin: KAMINSKI-V X-FileName: vincent kaminski 1-30-02.pst [IMAGE]=09 [IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE] Syncrasy, = LLC? 713.228.8470 Off 713.228.4147 Fax 909 Texas Avenue Suite 1314 H= ouston, TX 77002 www.syncrasy.com Sales: 713.228.4407 D= evelopment Offices: 970.247.4139 Off 970.247.7951 Fax 835 Main Avenue = Suite 221 Durango, CO 81301 =09 =09 [IMAGE] Complimentary version= of Trader Summary from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc. - If you woul= d like to receive this product early in the morning please call Syncr= asy at 713 228 4407 for more information or send an email to subscrib= e_TraderSummary@syncrasy.com - If you would like to be added to this da= ily email list please send an email to TraderSummaryemail@syncrasy.co= m - If you would like to be removed from this daily email please = reply to this email with the words "CANCEL" or send an email to cancel_trad= ersummary@syncrasy.com Data last updated: Friday, Jan 18, 2002 at 07:= 40AM EST Congratulations Andy Weingarten, APB Energy! Winner of the $50= ,000 Winter 2000-01 AQUILA/AMS Seasonal Forecasting Competition. For more i= nformation please visit: AMS or Aquila New! >> Printable PDF Trader Sum= mary (You must have Adobe Acrobat Reader to open or print a PDF) Click = here for a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperature' Today: Fr= iday, January 18, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matri= x [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enl= arge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 32 +1 ERCOT(SP) 60 +1 FRCC(SE) 74 -2 MAAC(NE) 3= 9 +1 MAIN(CTR) 25 +2 MAPP(HP) 17 +4 NPCC(NE) 32 NC SERC(SE) 54 +1 SPP(SP) 4= 0 +2 WSCC(NW) 36 +3 WSCC(RK) 24 +1 WSCC(SW) 53 +1 Range Standard Deviat= ion [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 21 23 29 33 20 55 55= 48 Max 28 27 34 37 25 58 58 53 Min 17 20 25 30 15 54 52 45 Range 11 7 9 7 = 10 4 6 8 StD-P 2.3 1.8 2.4 1.8 3.1 1.5 1.9 2.2 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 1= 2 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matri= x Andy Weingarten is out of the office; Due to his absence there will b= e no commentary today. Tomorrow: Saturday, January 19, 2002 Syncrasy'= s Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE= ] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 30 +1 = ERCOT(SP) 58 -2 FRCC(SE) 78 -1 MAAC(NE) 31 -3 MAIN(CTR) 30 +2 MAPP(HP) 26 += 1 NPCC(NE) 25 -1 SERC(SE) 51 +3 SPP(SP) 42 +1 WSCC(NW) 39 +2 WSCC(RK) 31 +3= WSCC(SW) 52 +1 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE= NW RK SE SP SW Mean 27 28 28 35 24 58 53 48 Max 31 35 33 39 31 61 57 53 Mi= n 24 24 24 31 17 55 48 44 Range 7 11 9 8 14 6 9 9 StD-P 1.5 2.7 2.1 2.1 3.7= 1.4 2.4 3.0 Count 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 Click Here to See Each Weather = Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 3: Sunday, January 20, 200= 2 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] = [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECA= R(CTR) 38 +2 ERCOT(SP) 62 NC FRCC(SE) 77 NC MAAC(NE) 40 NC MAIN(CTR) 34 NC = MAPP(HP) 26 -1 NPCC(NE) 33 +1 SERC(SE) 53 +1 SPP(SP) 47 NC WSCC(NW) 41 +1 W= SCC(RK) 30 -1 WSCC(SW) 54 +1 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] = Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 29 31 28 37 24 54 54 49 Max 31 33 35 41 3= 0 58 58 54 Min 27 27 24 34 19 50 46 45 Range 4 6 11 7 11 8 12 9 StD-P 1.1 1= .6 2.8 1.8 3.7 2.4 3.6 2.9 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here to See= Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 4: Monday, = January 21, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [= IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) = [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 38 -1 ERCOT(SP) 64 -1 FRCC(SE) 76 +1 MAAC(NE) 44 +2 M= AIN(CTR) 36 -1 MAPP(HP) 30 -1 NPCC(NE) 37 +2 SERC(SE) 59 NC SPP(SP) 54 +1 W= SCC(NW) 41 NC WSCC(RK) 40 +1 WSCC(SW) 57 NC Range Standard Deviation [I= MAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 33 34 34 37 31 58 55 52 Ma= x 35 41 38 41 40 64 62 57 Min 30 31 31 33 28 52 45 49 Range 5 10 7 8 12 12 = 17 8 StD-P 1.4 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.4 3.2 5.1 2.1 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Cl= ick Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix = Day 5: Tuesday, January 22, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volati= lity Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on im= age to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 43 NC ERCOT(SP) 64 -5 FRCC(SE) 73 -2 = MAAC(NE) 43 -1 MAIN(CTR) 42 +1 MAPP(HP) 36 +5 NPCC(NE) 33 -3 SERC(SE) 58 -1= SPP(SP) 57 +2 WSCC(NW) 39 NC WSCC(RK) 37 +3 WSCC(SW) 55 -2 Range Stand= ard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 36 36 35 3= 4 32 57 60 49 Max 41 43 39 40 40 62 64 57 Min 32 31 30 30 25 51 57 44 Range= 9 12 9 10 15 11 7 13 StD-P 2.6 2.4 3.0 3.6 4.2 3.5 2.1 3.8 Count 10 10 10 = 10 10 10 10 10 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Vol= atility Matrix Day 6: Wednesday, January 23, 2002 Click Here for Syncr= asy's 6-10 summary information. Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatili= ty Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on imag= e to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 44 +2 ERCOT(SP) 68 +1 FRCC(SE) 75 NC MA= AC(NE) 47 -1 MAIN(CTR) 37 +3 MAPP(HP) 29 +6 NPCC(NE) 39 +1 SERC(SE) 60 +1 S= PP(SP) 50 +3 WSCC(NW) 42 +3 WSCC(RK) 32 +2 WSCC(SW) 55 -1 Range Standar= d Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 37 32 36 35 = 25 61 63 49 Max 41 41 41 42 40 63 67 56 Min 35 27 33 30 16 59 60 41 Range 6= 14 8 12 24 4 7 15 StD-P 1.2 3.9 2.0 3.1 8.1 0.9 1.7 4.7 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 = 9 9 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Mat= rix Day 7: Thursday, January 24, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. = Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Clic= k on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 39 +2 ERCOT(SP) 62 +1 FRCC(SE)= 76 +1 MAAC(NE) 49 +7 MAIN(CTR) 33 +3 MAPP(HP) 26 +3 NPCC(NE) 38 +6 SERC(SE= ) 59 +3 SPP(SP) 47 +4 WSCC(NW) 42 +1 WSCC(RK) 35 +1 WSCC(SW) 59 +2 Rang= e Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 35 = 28 43 37 24 63 56 50 Max 39 34 50 42 36 67 65 59 Min 30 23 38 31 14 61 48 4= 4 Range 9 11 12 11 22 6 17 15 StD-P 2.2 3.4 3.8 2.7 6.1 1.5 5.6 4.0 Count 9= 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Vol= atility Matrix Day 8: Friday, January 25, 2002 Syncrasy's Choice: Del= ta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMA= GE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 25 -4 ERCOT(SP) 47 += 2 FRCC(SE) 65 -6 MAAC(NE) 37 -4 MAIN(CTR) 25 -4 MAPP(HP) 30 -3 NPCC(NE) 37 = +14 SERC(SE) 43 -9 SPP(SP) 40 NC WSCC(NW) 38 NC WSCC(RK) 31 NC WSCC(SW) 53 = NC Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP = SW Mean 27 32 40 39 31 56 50 53 Max 31 37 51 43 41 63 59 59 Min 18 25 31 36= 21 47 45 45 Range 13 12 20 7 20 16 14 14 StD-P 3.0 3.7 4.0 1.9 4.2 5.2 5.2= 3.3 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here to See Each Weather Forecast Used Wi= thin the Volatility Matrix Day 9: Saturday, January 26, 2002 Syncrasy's= Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE]= [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 34 NC E= RCOT(SP) 54 +2 FRCC(SE) 53 -1 MAAC(NE) 31 +4 MAIN(CTR) 38 -3 MAPP(HP) 41 -1= NPCC(NE) 15 -1 SERC(SE) 42 -2 SPP(SP) 52 +4 WSCC(NW) 36 -2 WSCC(RK) 33 -2 = WSCC(SW) 52 -2 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE = NW RK SE SP SW Mean 30 37 26 37 34 49 53 54 Max 37 43 33 43 41 56 57 59 Min= 23 30 19 31 32 43 50 49 Range 14 13 14 12 9 13 7 10 StD-P 5.3 4.6 5.2 3.4 = 2.9 4.5 2.0 2.8 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Click Here to See Each Weather Forec= ast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 10: Sunday, January 27, 2002 = Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IM= AGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(C= TR) 40 -1 ERCOT(SP) 62 +3 FRCC(SE) 59 NC MAAC(NE) 41 +3 MAIN(CTR) 43 -1 MAP= P(HP) 40 -7 NPCC(NE) 28 -2 SERC(SE) 51 NC SPP(SP) 54 -1 WSCC(NW) 30 -1 WSCC= (RK) 29 -6 WSCC(SW) 46 -6 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Re= g CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 31 31 26 29 24 47 49 42 Max 42 37 31 33 31 5= 2 61 50 Min 17 21 21 23 15 41 34 33 Range 25 16 10 10 16 11 27 17 StD-P 8.3= 5.6 3.6 2.2 5.6 4.3 10.7 5.6 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Click Here to See Each= Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Trader Summary is de= signed around and formatted for the [IMAGE]Plasma displays, RainbowWall? a= nd DataWall? Trader Summary can also be viewed from www.syncrasy.com or = www.apbenergy.com or www.truequote.com [IMAGE] =09 =09=09=09