Message-ID: <6146845.1075855457656.JavaMail.evans@thyme> Date: Fri, 21 Dec 2001 07:25:53 -0800 (PST) From: tradersummary@syncrasy.com To: vkamins@ect.enron.com Subject: Syncrasy Daily Trader Summary for Fri, Dec 21, 2001 Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ANSI_X3.4-1968 Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-From: tradersummary@syncrasy.com@ENRON X-To: vkamins@ect.enron.com X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \Vincent_Kaminski_Jan2002_1\Kaminski, Vince J\Deleted Items X-Origin: Kaminski-V X-FileName: vkamins (Non-Privileged).pst Syncrasy - Weather for Business [IMAGE]=09 [IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE] Syncrasy, = LLC? 713.228.8470 Off 713.228.4147 Fax 909 Texas Avenue Suite 1314 H= ouston, TX 77002 www.syncrasy.com Sales: 713.228.4407 Deve= lopment Offices: 970.247.4139 Off 970.247.7951 Fax 835 Main Avenue Sui= te 221 Durango, CO 81301 =09 =09 [IMAGE] Complimentary version of= Trader Summary from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc. - If you would l= ike to receive this product early in the morning please call Syncrasy= at 713 228 4407 for more information or send an email to subscribe_T= raderSummary@syncrasy.com - If you would like to be added to this daily em= ail list please send an email to TraderSummaryemail@syncrasy.com - I= f you would like to be removed from this daily email please reply to = this email with the words "CANCEL" or send an email to cancel_tradersummary= @syncrasy.com Data last updated: Friday, Dec 21, 2001 at 07:35AM EST = Commentary last updated: Friday, Dec 21, 2001 at 09:19AM EST Meteorologis= t: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy/ True Quote Congratulations Andy Weinga= rten, APB Energy! Winner of the $50,000 Winter 2000-01 AQUILA/AMS Seasonal= Forecasting Competition. For more information please visit: AMSor Aquila = New! >> Printable PDF Trader Summary (You must have Adobe Acrobat Readerto= open or print a PDF) Click here for a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximu= m Temperature' Today: Friday, December 21, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: D= elta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] = (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 39 +3 ERCOT(SP) 67 NC FRC= C(SE) 69 +1 MAAC(NE) 42 +2 MAIN(CTR) 41 +3 MAPP(HP) 36 +2 NPCC(NE) 32 NC SE= RC(SE) 57 +1 SPP(SP) 59 +3 WSCC(NW) 40 +1 WSCC(RK) 37 +1 WSCC(SW) 52 NC = Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mea= n 35 36 34 36 31 54 59 47 Max 40 41 37 40 40 62 66 53 Min 31 31 31 34 27 49= 55 44 Range 9 10 6 6 13 13 11 9 StD-P 2.9 2.6 2.0 1.7 3.6 3.5 3.1 2.7 Coun= t 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Hereto See Each Weather Forecast Used Withi= n the Volatility Matrix Day 1-5 Discussion: Legitimate cold air poised= to move into the U.S. the last week of the year. Some models also hint at = significant winter storminess next week as well. The next system should s= tart cranking up over SE Colorado today and track towards the Great Lakes t= his weekend. This will still be more of a rain than snow event, but finally= is the catalyst to really show the pattern change. As the storm exits in t= he East, a strong ridge builds on the West coast up into Canada which force= s polar air South. High latitude blocking then keeps the polar air in place= . The Midwest is the first recipient of this and it then spreads East into = next week. We are rapidly losing the positive temperature departures. They = should be gone all together East of the Rockies by Christmas. Of course the= y will be growing under the ridge West o! f the Rockies. Negative departure= s should become more prominent next week under this polar vortex. They will= show up more in daytime highs rather than night time lows. I don't expect = heavy precipitation in the short term from this, but persistent cloudiness = and wind will add to the chill. Tomorrow: Saturday, December 22, 2001 = Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][I= MAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 45 += 2 ERCOT(SP) 67 NC FRCC(SE) 73 +1 MAAC(NE) 41 +1 MAIN(CTR) 45 +2 MAPP(HP) 31= +2 NPCC(NE) 34 +1 SERC(SE) 58 +1 SPP(SP) 50 -1 WSCC(NW) 38 NC WSCC(RK) 24 = -2 WSCC(SW) 51 -2 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP = NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 40 30 31 37 24 57 60 47 Max 43 40 37 40 39 62 64 53 = Min 38 22 26 33 16 53 56 42 Range 5 18 11 7 23 9 8 11 StD-P 1.2 3.3 3.6 1.9= 4.9 2.5 2.4 3.2 Count 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 Click Hereto See Each Weathe= r Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 3: Sunday, December 23, = 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [I= MAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CT= R) 47 +6 ERCOT(SP) 55 -1 FRCC(SE) 76 +1 MAAC(NE) 48 NC MAIN(CTR) 34 +4 MAPP= (HP) 20 NC NPCC(NE) 42 +2 SERC(SE) 54 -1 SPP(SP) 36 -3 WSCC(NW) 40 NC WSCC(= RK) 29 -3 WSCC(SW) 52 -2 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg= CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 34 23 38 37 22 59 48 48 Max 41 29 44 40 29 61= 63 52 Min 30 17 34 32 12 57 36 42 Range 11 12 10 8 17 4 27 10 StD-P 3.0 3.= 3 2.2 2.1 4.5 1.1 6.1 3.0 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Hereto See Ea= ch Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 4: Monday, Dec= ember 24, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE]= [IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE]= ECAR(CTR) 35 +3 ERCOT(SP) 50 -2 FRCC(SE) 71 +1 MAAC(NE) 47 +4 MAIN(CTR) = 26 NC MAPP(HP) 15 -3 NPCC(NE) 42 +2 SERC(SE) 51 +1 SPP(SP) 37 -4 WSCC(NW) 3= 7 -3 WSCC(RK) 26 -5 WSCC(SW) 51 -2 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IM= AGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 25 21 42 35 21 51 42 47 Max 32 27 4= 5 40 30 59 51 52 Min 22 15 38 30 9 46 33 41 Range 10 12 7 10 21 13 18 11 St= D-P 2.8 3.4 2.2 3.7 5.8 4.2 5.4 3.5 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Her= eto See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 5: T= uesday, December 25, 2001 Syncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matr= ix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge= ) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 31 +1 ERCOT(SP) 48 -5 FRCC(SE) 68 +2 MAAC(NE) 42 +3= MAIN(CTR) 20 -2 MAPP(HP) 9 -5 NPCC(NE) 41 +5 SERC(SE) 46 +1 SPP(SP) 29 -6 = WSCC(NW) 35 -6 WSCC(RK) 22 -9 WSCC(SW) 51 -4 Range Standard Deviation [= IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 21 17 37 33 18 47 40 46 M= ax 25 26 45 37 30 56 48 52 Min 17 8 29 27 3 41 29 40 Range 8 18 16 10 27 15= 19 12 StD-P 2.4 4.8 4.3 3.6 7.4 4.1 5.7 3.5 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 = Click Hereto See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix = Day 6-10 Discussion: The 6-10 day period shows the polar vortex locked in= to place over the Great Lakes. It is also possible that Southern jet stream= energy will undercut this polar air spinning up a winter storm in the Sout= h that could head up the East Coast. This storm is clearly in the speculati= ve stages and should be watched. But, the cold is not speculative, it is re= al. I am very confident in the evolution of this at long last. It appears t= o be a fairly long lasting event, the question now is how long and how seve= re. One extreme example of how strong this potential may be down the road w= as a report earlier this week that record high barometric pressure readings= were approached in Mongolia. The center of this Siberian high had a pressu= re of around 32.00" of mercury. The temperature at the time of the reading = was 41 below zero. Most of the ! models on a hemispheric scale are now lini= ng up the surface highs from the U.S. Northwest to the Pole. The Canadian m= odel in particular shows some very frigid air in the NW territories on its = Day 10 depiction. If this trend continues, it could be extremely cold early= in 2002. Note: This is my final weather commentary until January 2'nd of = 2002. Best wishes for a happy holiday season. Day 6: Wednesday, Decembe= r 26, 2001 Click Herefor Syncrasy's 6-10 summary information. Syncrasy's = Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAG= E][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 27 -1 ERCOT(SP)= 45 -9 FRCC(SE) 68 +4 MAAC(NE) 40 +4 MAIN(CTR) 20 -3 MAPP(HP) 12 -5 NPCC(NE= ) 38 +6 SERC(SE) 45 +1 SPP(SP) 28 -9 WSCC(NW) 35 -5 WSCC(RK) 21 -10 WSCC(SW= ) 51 -4 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW RK S= E SP SW Mean 19 17 34 33 16 44 38 46 Max 25 26 39 37 27 50 46 52 Min 14 9 2= 9 28 -1 39 27 40 Range 11 17 10 9 28 11 19 12 StD-P 3.2 4.6 3.7 3.3 8.7 4.0= 6.5 3.8 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Hereto See Each Weather Forecast Used = Within the Volatility Matrix Day 7: Thursday, December 27, 2001 Syncras= y's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [= IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 29 NC ERCOT= (SP) 48 -8 FRCC(SE) 69 +5 MAAC(NE) 36 NC MAIN(CTR) 25 NC MAPP(HP) 13 -4 NPC= C(NE) 33 +2 SERC(SE) 46 NC SPP(SP) 33 -5 WSCC(NW) 36 -2 WSCC(RK) 23 -6 WSCC= (SW) 50 -4 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW R= K SE SP SW Mean 19 18 29 34 19 43 38 46 Max 25 25 33 39 28 50 48 52 Min 14 = 10 25 28 5 37 26 37 Range 11 15 8 11 23 13 22 15 StD-P 3.6 4.2 2.8 3.4 7.4 = 3.9 7.0 4.9 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Hereto See Each Weather Forecast Us= ed Within the Volatility Matrix Day 8: Friday, December 28, 2001 Syncr= asy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE]= [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 17 -2 ERC= OT(SP) 38 -3 FRCC(SE) 63 +3 MAAC(NE) 22 -1 MAIN(CTR) 13 -2 MAPP(HP) 9 +1 NP= CC(NE) 23 +3 SERC(SE) 34 -3 SPP(SP) 19 -6 WSCC(NW) 28 -2 WSCC(RK) 4 -9 WSCC= (SW) 42 -4 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW R= K SE SP SW Mean 20 18 28 35 19 44 41 49 Max 25 25 32 42 29 50 49 54 Min 14 = 9 22 28 4 38 34 42 Range 11 16 10 14 25 12 15 12 StD-P 3.7 5.0 3.8 4.0 8.2 = 3.8 5.4 4.1 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Hereto See Each Weather Forecast Us= ed Within the Volatility Matrix Day 9: Saturday, December 29, 2001 Sync= rasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE= ] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 17 NC ER= COT(SP) 35 -9 FRCC(SE) 54 -8 MAAC(NE) 22 -2 MAIN(CTR) 16 +2 MAPP(HP) 10 +3 = NPCC(NE) 25 +3 SERC(SE) 30 -5 SPP(SP) 20 -2 WSCC(NW) 30 +4 WSCC(RK) 9 +5 WS= CC(SW) 46 NC Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP NE NW= RK SE SP SW Mean 20 18 28 35 21 41 39 50 Max 25 26 33 42 29 49 50 55 Min 1= 5 9 23 28 10 35 31 45 Range 10 17 10 14 19 14 19 10 StD-P 4.1 5.7 3.7 4.3 7= .0 4.6 6.6 3.6 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Click Hereto See Each Weather Forecast= Used Within the Volatility Matrix Day 10: Sunday, December 30, 2001 S= yncrasy's Choice: Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IM= AGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge) [IMAGE] ECAR(CTR) 19 +1= ERCOT(SP) 37 +2 FRCC(SE) 53 -1 MAAC(NE) 25 NC MAIN(CTR) 14 -1 MAPP(HP) 8 -= 2 NPCC(NE) 26 -2 SERC(SE) 31 -1 SPP(SP) 22 +5 WSCC(NW) 35 +11 WSCC(RK) 13 += 10 WSCC(SW) 49 +13 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE] Reg CT HP= NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 17 14 27 34 14 35 31 43 Max 21 20 33 35 21 39 34 48= Min 14 11 22 31 7 30 25 36 Range 7 9 11 4 14 9 9 12 StD-P 2.5 2.4 2.7 1.8 = 2.9 2.2 3.6 4.7 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Click Hereto See Each Weather Forecas= t Used Within the Volatility Matrix Trader Summary is designed around an= d formatted for the [IMAGE]Plasma displays, RainbowWall? and DataWall? T= rader Summary can also be viewed from www.syncrasy.comor www.apbenergy.c= omor www.truequote.com [IMAGE] =09 =09=09=09