Message-ID: <18783322.1075856605912.JavaMail.evans@thyme>
Date: Tue, 27 Feb 2001 06:01:00 -0800 (PST)
From: sandeep.kohli@enron.com
To: james.hughes@enron.com
Subject: Dispatch within Maharashtra
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X-From: Sandeep Kohli
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Jim,

Please find attached some slides that show the results of the Henwood run 
giving dispatch for the Dabhol plant within Maharashtra.  I have also sent 
the presentation we made to you to Wade.  He is to get back on when would be 
an appropriate time for him to go over the presentation with me.

Vince, Stinson and I have placed ourselves on Rebecca's calender for Friday, 
and we will make the complete pitch to her.  It would be great if you too 
could be present at the meeting.  If it is possible, please do let me know.

On the attached slides, please note that:
The slides all assume that there is a 1 part power tariff, MSEB liability for 
the entire capacity payment is not considered.
The Henwood model was with no power flowing out of Maharashtra
When variable O&M costs, fixed O&M cost plus fuel costs increased beyond 5 
cents/kWh (equal to MSEB's average realization), load went unmet
In 2002 the slide shows the monthly dispatch from Dabhol in equivalent MW 
terms, and also the load shedding in Maharashtra 
We cross-checked the Henwood run load shedding data against actual hourly 
load shedding data from 1999-2000 that we had from MSEB
My estimate is that for December and January the load shedding maybe more 
than what the Henwood model shows, but overall the run passes the laugh test
The graph also shows the monthly bill (based on 7.21 cents/kWh) that MSEB 
would have to pay for the DPC dispatch.
The next slide shows our estimate of MSEB's payment capability (range from 
$38-46 MM/month)
The Henwood run shows an average bill for 2002 to be $41 MM/month; though in 
some months (Jan) it goes as high as $69 MM.  Hence, overall, MSEB can pay 
for the dispatches as shown in the Henwood run provided, they are not paying 
for the capacity payment for the whole 2184 MW plant.
In conclusion, therefore, MSEB has the need for between 1200 to 410 MW on a 
seasonal basis.  This means that the power remaining to be sold to other 
states is the difference between that and 2184 MW.
However, since the demand within Maharashtra varies seasonally, it may mean 
that we need to market seasonal products to other states, not long term 
blocks.

These are our conclusions.  We may continue to work some more on the fuel and 
hedging side.  If you have any more questions for me, please let me know, 
else for now there will not be any new Henwood runs.

Regards,
Sandeep.