Message-ID: <14187560.1075858467594.JavaMail.evans@thyme> Date: Thu, 12 Apr 2001 18:14:00 -0700 (PDT) From: vince.kaminski@enron.com To: mike.roberts@enron.com Subject: Syncrasy prepares you for the summer Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ANSI_X3.4-1968 Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-From: Vince J Kaminski X-To: Mike A Roberts X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \Vince_Kaminski_Jun2001_10\Sent Items X-Origin: Kaminski-V X-FileName: vkamins.pst FYI Vince ---------------------- Forwarded by Vince J Kaminski/HOU/ECT on 04/12/2001 = 03:15 PM --------------------------- evan@syncrasy.com on 04/12/2001 01:31:37 PM To:=09vkamins@ect.enron.com cc:=09=20 Subject:=09Syncrasy prepares you for the summer [IMAGE]=09 [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE] Syncrasy, LLC? = 713.228.8470 Off 713.228.4147 Fax 909 Texas Avenue Suite 1314 = Houston, TX 77002 www.syncrasy.com Sales: 713.228.= 4407 Development Offices: 970.247.4139 Off 970.247.7951 Fax 835 Mai= n Avenue Suite 221 Durango, CO 81301 =09 Is your Company fi= nancially susceptible to weather fluctuations? [IMAGE]Syncras= y's Weather Analysis Tool (SWAT? will help. Does weather forecast uncertai= nty slow the speed at which your business makes decisions? [= IMAGE]Examine Syncrasy's application Forecast Analysis and Confidence Tradi= ng System (FACTS? How accurate is your current weather information? = [IMAGE]Examine Syncrasy's application Weather Analysis and Vendor E= valuation System (WAVES? How timely is your current weather informatio= n? [IMAGE]Examine Syncrasy's Model Status page. SPOT W= EATHER ANOMOLIES QUICKLY Using Syncrasy's proprietary visualization tools,= a user can quickly compare the output of up to 4 weather forecasting model= s for a specific time period. Syncrasy's visualization tool projects each m= odel over an identical national grid, and a zoom feature allows synchronize= d zooming into any particular region of the continental US. For an example,= view the Multi-Panel Graphic? on our website. [IMAGE] QUANTIFY YOU= R WEATHER RISK [IMAGE] Syncrasy provides individual forecasts for ove= r 1,600 weather stations in the continental US. For any one of these statio= ns, you can compare all 14 weather forecasts side-by-side either to gain st= atistical confidence in a particular outcome or to quantify the weather ris= k of a specific forecast. If you rely on weather forecasts, you should be = aware of the extent to which all 14 forecasts agree (or disagree) with each= other. For an example, visit Syncrasy's Forecast Analysis and Confidence = Trading System (FACTS)? on our website. WHICH WEATHER FORECAST IS MORE A= CCURATE? Discover which weather forecast has been historically the most ac= curate for a particular city over any selected time period (such as last we= ek, month, season, etc.). Refine your analysis with data filters. For exam= ple, use a filter to determine which of the weather forecasting models is m= ost accurate when actual temperatures are greater than 90 degrees, or when = temperatures change more than 10 degrees within an hour. For an example, s= ee Syncrasy's Weather Accuracy & Vendor Evaluation System (WAVES)? on our= website. CONDUCT DETAILED, PRECISE ANALYSES USING "DIFFERENCE GRAPHICS" = "Difference Graphics" refers to the spatially calculated difference for= a single output. Difference Graphics allows a user to analyze discrepancie= s between any 2 weather forecasting models for any time period. For exampl= e, using Difference Graphics, a user can view the difference in surface tem= perature between "Weather Vendor A" and "Weather Vendor B" across the US fo= r tomorrow at 2pm. A user could also view how "Weather Vendor A" has chang= ed since the prior forecast. For an example visit Syncrasy's Difference G= raphics. [IMAGE] ENHANCE YOUR WEATHER COMPARISONS TO INCLUDE= TRAILING AVERAGES The meteorological community frequently relies on one d= ataset for comparative purposes: the "30 year average." This "30 year avera= ge," however, may not be an ideal comparison as it is defined as the 30 yea= r average over the period from 1961 to 1990. Syncrasy broadens the user's i= nformation by including options allowing users to compare any weather forec= ast to the trailing 30, 15, 10, or 5 year averages. A REAL COMPETITIVE A= DVANTAGE: YOU HAVE THE INFORMATION FIRST! [IMAGE] Syncrasy's"Ma= ch-5" technique expeditiously reports information to users in advance of ty= pical weather data feeds which may experience bottlenecks during peak traff= ic (or rely on slower satellite communication). To prove Syncrasy's superio= r reporting speed, our system allows users to test our reporting speed for = themselves by comparing our time stamps to that of their best alternative w= eather data source. Syncrasy records the time at which each weather forecas= t is available on Syncrasy's system (timestamp in dark green) as well as th= e anticipated time the weather forecast should update (timestamp in black).= Users will find our data reports FIRST offering them a valuable competitiv= e advantage! For an example, visit Syncrasy's Model Status. Syncrasy's= Weather Analysis Tool (SWAT? SWAT? collects timely and comprehensive met= eorologically diverse weather forecasts from multiple forecasting groups,= such as National Weather Service, universities, armed services, NASA and o= ther research oriented institutions. The data is integrated into a single = analysis platform. This platform includes a number of tools which may be u= seful to a trader and/or meteorologist. For example, SWAT? assists users i= n the following tasks: identifying and quantifying weather risk for some f= uture time period; tracking the historical performance of different weather= forecasting methodologies; and, creating a proprietary forecast. SWAT?cu= rrently collects 14 forecasts covering next hour through 16 days in the f= uture. This data (and risk analysis) is available on the SWAT?before most = companies (especially those companies that depend on traditional satellite = links). All these weather forecasts can be viewed graphically (as a nation= al view or hemispheric view, were applicable) or viewed in a tabular format= . SWAT?FEATURES: Compare SWAT features to other products in the marketp= lace. SYNCRASY?is designed for use by: Meteorologists Powe= r Analysts Power Traders Risk Management Exec= utives At Syncrasy?we believe our system to be the only available service= of its kind. Our research has found no other data source as comprehensive = for statistical analysis of weather forecast performance. As a Subscriber t= o our service, you will have use of cutting edge technology at your fingert= ips. It is fast, reliable, and easy to use. SUBSCRIBE TODAY! Sales Off= ice 713-228-4407 or Online at www.syncrasy.com [IMAGE] 909 = Texas Ave., Suite 1314 713.228.8470 Main www.syncrasy.com 835= Main Ave., Suite 221 970.247.4139 Main Houston, TX 77002 713.22= 8.4147 Fax Durango, CO 81301 970.247.7951 Fax 713.228.4407 Sales= =09