Message-ID: <14319226.1075856642581.JavaMail.evans@thyme>
Date: Fri, 28 Jul 2000 13:19:00 -0700 (PDT)
From: kirstee.hewitt@enron.com
To: vince.kaminski@enron.com
Subject: VaR numbers for the 26th
Mime-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit
X-From: Kirstee Hewitt
X-To: Vince J Kaminski
X-cc: 
X-bcc: 
X-Folder: \Vincent_Kaminski_Jun2001_5\Notes Folders\Var
X-Origin: Kaminski-V
X-FileName: vkamins.nsf

Hi Vince,
I apologise that I did not send you the following mail ...
Kirsteee
---------------------- Forwarded by Kirstee Hewitt/LON/ECT on 28/07/2000 
20:21 ---------------------------
   


	Enron Europe
	
	From:  Kirstee Hewitt                           27/07/2000 20:33
	

To: Andreas.Barschkis@mgusa.com
cc: Bjorn Hagelmann/HOU/ECT@ECT, Grant Masson/HOU/ECT@ECT 

Subject: VaR numbers for the 26th

Hi Andreas,

I have run the VaR model for the 26th July and have attached a zip file of 
the results:

The total VaR is $4,170,653 and the Cu position is $1,852,876.


I have had trouble getting hold of you so I thought I would summarised what I 
wanted to talk about (also I thought 
I would give your ears a rest!)
Basically it is wrt the second point in your mail yesterday (we briefly 
discussed it earlier). 
The fax you sent me to explain the risk calculation suggested that you use a 
5 day period of adjustment to calculate 
the risk (in this case it is called Capital at Risk). The VaR calculation for 
our model is for a one day holding period which means that your risk factor
will be reduced by a factor equal the sqrt(5) or 2.24. 
Since :

Old risk factor (%) =  1.65*(std of the price movement) = 3.99%
 
New daily risk factor = 3.99/2.24  = 1.78%    which actually equates to std 
of approx 1.1% a day.
I am happy with this as a estimate of the vol as the annualized spot vol we 
are showing for Cu is approx 19% which equates to approx 1.2% daily.

Using this new risk factor for the daily VaR the Cu positions would give a 
VaR (for the 19th) of approx $2m which is less that the 
figure we estimated ($3,100,568).
The other thing is that by taking net numbers we are disregarding the term 
structure of the price curve/vol curve and position 
curve and are hence collapsing everything into a one factor model which means 
that it is difficult to compare the numbers.
I hope that this helps to explain our number.

Hopefully we can talk tomorrow,
Cheers
Kirstee