Message-ID: <30100752.1075857092397.JavaMail.evans@thyme> Date: Wed, 13 Dec 2000 10:02:00 -0800 (PST) From: evening@ino.com To: alewis@enron.com Subject: Wednesday S&P -11.08 CRB -2.59 USD +0.44 NAS -108.97 DOW +26.17 Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-From: "INO.com" X-To: alewis@enron.com X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \Andrew_Lewis_Dec2000\Notes Folders\All documents X-Origin: Lewis-A X-FileName: alewis.nsf W E D N E S D A Y E X T R E M E M A R K E T S A complimentary service from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ) December 13: The CRB Index trended lower by 2.59 points to 227.32. The US Dollar Index rose 0.44 points to 114.71. The Dow Industrials rose 26.17 points, at 10794.44, while the S&P 500 dropped 11.08 points, last seen at 1360.10. The Nasdaq Composite edged lower 108.97 points to 2822.80. 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Order Toll Free 800-538-7424 - 410-867-7424 All claims on this product are made by the publisher and not by INO.com. All Products Guaranteed. _____________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E M A R K E T C O M M E N T A R Y _____________________________________________________________________ The STOCK INDEXES The Nasdaq and S&P's closed lower on Wednesday as chip and hardware stocks fell due to concerns over corporate profits. Salomon Smith Barney lowered its rating on the chip equipment group, citing a capital-spending freeze of up to six months at Intel. The Dow closed higher on Wednesday due in part to strength in Philip Morris, J.P. Morgan and Johnson & Johnson. Early strength tested last week's high crossing at 10,917.30, which marks short-term resistance. Multiple closes above this resistance level would open the door for a possible year end rally that could lead to an eventual test of last spring's high crossing at 11,425.40 later this winter. INTEREST RATES March bonds gapped up and surged to a new contract high thereby renewing this fall's rally. Weakness in the Nasdaq and S&P's underpinned today's rally in bonds in part due to a safe-haven move by some investors. Today's high-range close sets the stage for sharply higher prices on Thursday should November's Producer Price Index come in weaker than expected. If the rally in March bonds continues, weekly resistance crossing at 106-10 is the next upside objective later this winter. CRB INDEX extended Tuesday's loss and confirmed a downside breakout below the lower boundary of this month's symmetrical triangle and filled November's gap at 227.58. Today's decline confirms the rally off the late-October low has come to an end while marking a broad double top on the daily chart. If the decline continues, fib support crossing at 225.87 is the next downside target. Much of today's pressure was due to weakness in precious metals, foods, fiber, and energies. ENERGIES The energy markets closed sharply lower on Wednesday due to liquidation of Brent crude oil ahead of Thursday's January contract expiration. The sell off was some what of a surprise following recent industry data, which showed crude and heating oil stocks fell last week and indications that Iraq has not fully resumed crude oil sales. February crude oil posted a key reversal down today thereby ending this week's short covering rebound. Additional weakness on Thursday is needed to confirm today's reversal pattern. If this fall's decline resumes, fib support crossing at 27.37 is the next target. February heating oil also closed sharply lower on Wednesday and is challenging key support crossing at 88.10. Multiple closes below this support level could lead to a test of the 38% retracement level of the 1999/2000- advance crossing at 84.11 later this winter. CURRENCIES the March Dollar closed higher on Wednesday as it renewed its short covering rebound off last week's low. Today's rally was underpinned by Tuesday's U.S. Supreme Court decision to halt the manual recount thereby giving the election to George W. Bush. Momentum indicators have turned bullish signaling sideways to higher prices into the end of the year are possible. Today's mid-range close leaves the door open for sideways trading on Thursday. The March Swiss Franc and D-mark closed lower on Wednesday as they extend their declines off last week's highs. Momentum indicators have turned bearish warning additional weakness into the end of the year is possible. The March Japanese Yen plunged to a new contract low in overnight trading and held onto those losses during the day session. Concerns over the Japanese economy and the U.S. Supreme Court ruling triggered the sell off. The door is open for a test of last February's low crossing at .8978 then fib support crossing at .8774 later this winter. PRECIOUS METALS were closed lower on Wednesday. February gold resumed its decline off last week's high and closed below November's uptrend line crossing near 271.80 thereby confirming a short-term top has been posted. Momentum indicators are bearish signaling sideways to lower prices into the end of the year are possible. Support begins at 266.80. March silver also closed lower on Wednesday ending this week's short covering bounce. Today's new low close for the week and test of support crossing at 4.69 sets the stage for additional weakness into the end of the year. If the decline continues, weekly support crossing at 4.56 cents is March's next target. March copper extended Tuesday's loss in relatively narrow trading but pulled up short of testing November's uptrend line crossing near 87.75. A short covering bounce ahead of the close tempered some of today's losses leaving the door open for additional short covering on Thursday. Nevertheless, momentum indicators are overbought and turning bearish signaling additional weakness near-term is possible. Closes below November's uptrend line would confirm a top and trend change has taken place. GRAINS closed mixed on Wednesday. March corn posted a key reversal up Wednesday due to expectations that tomorrow's export sales report will show a significant improvement from recent weeks. Confirmation of improving export sales on Thursday could lead to further short covering thereby turning a number of momentum indicators neutral to bullish. Such a turnaround in the near-term price outlook could lead to year-end rebound however, it will take closes above 2.22 1/4 before a low is confirmed. March wheat closed lower on Wednesday as traders are struggling to find direction following Tuesday's key reversal down in the face of a friendly supply and demand report. Traders remain concerned over lagging export sales and expect to see another week of slow export sales in Thursday's report. March is challenging trading range support crossing at 2.69. If this support level is broken, the fall low at 2.63 1/2 then long-term support at 2.50 are possible targets. Momentum indicators are bearish signaling additional weakness is possible. SOYBEAN COMPLEX closed mixed on Wednesday. March beans managed to squeak out a fractional gain on Wednesday as it continues to consolidate below the 75% retracement level of this fall's decline, which crosses at 5.20. While Tuesday's supply and demand report was friendly, the increase in export sales and drop in carryout was already factored into prices. March beans are at a crossroads as a lack of fresh news is limiting gains while solid demand continues to underpin the market. Closes above 5.20 or below trendline support crossing near 5.12 are needed to clear up near-term direction in the market. March soybean meal closed slightly lower on Wednesday due to light profit taking as it consolidated some of its recent gains. March continues to extend the late-fall trading range despite Tuesday's friendly supply and demand report. Closes above 189.50 or below 182.30 are needed to clear up near-term direction in the market. March bean oil posted an inside day with a slightly higher close due to light short covering as it consolidated some of this week's losses. However, today's low-range close leaves the door open for a resumption of the decline off this month's high. Momentum indicators are bearish signaling a test of November's low crossing at 15.05 is possible later this winter. LIVESTOCK closed steady on Wednesday. February hogs posted a quiet inside day with a steady close as it consolidated some of Tuesday's loss. However, momentum indicators are diverging and turning bearish warning traders that a broad double top may have been posted with Monday's spike high. A resumption of this week's decline on Thursday would set the stage for a test of trendline support crossing near 57.50. If the late fall rally resumes, weekly resistance crossing at 63.30 is the next upside target. February cattle also closed steady after early strength tied to winter storm concerns and expectations for higher cash bids gave way to light profit taking ahead of the close. Today's high fell short of testing weekly resistance crossing at 77.92. Momentum indicators have become very overbought warning traders that much of the bullish news from higher cash and product prices underpinned by surprisingly strong demand may have already been discounted in prices. Closes below Tuesday's low at 76.50 would be a clear warning to bulls that a short-term top may be in or near. FOOD & FIBER markets were mixed on Thursday. March coffee posted another quiet inside day with its lowest close ever while May fell within 20 cents of the contract low. Forecast for rain across Brazil's coffee growing region this weekend combined with last week's bearish world crop estimate continues to weigh on prices. March cocoa gave us the short covering bounce we were looking for following Tuesday's high-range close. Additional short covering is possible however, upside potential appears limited in the face of continued origin selling that may last into the end of the year. March sugar finally resumed its decline off November's high after drifting sideways for the past week and a half. Renewed fund and speculator selling due to a lack of cash trade activity triggered today's plunge to new lows. Momentum indicators are bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible. If the decline continues 930, then 867 are the next targets. March cotton extended Tuesday's trendline breakout thereby confirming this week's gap marked a downside breakaway gap. Today's loss sets the stage for a likely test of October's low crossing at 63.75 cents later this winter. Bearish fallout from Tuesday's negative supply and demand report continues to weigh on prices. I would not be surprised to see a short covering bounce on Thursday especially if export sales come in above pre-report expectations. Daily Extreme Commentary is brought to you by GLOBALcharts, INO.com's end-of-day charting software for Futures, Futures Options and Optionable Stocks. http://www.globalcharts.com Search the INO Store - http://store.ino.com/ _____________________________________________________________________ T O P N E W S _____________________________________________________________________ STOCKS Japan Stocks Review: Up 0.4% as US ruling boosts Nasdaq futures http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=24067 US Equities Review: Nasdaq down 3% on profit woes; DJIA climbs http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=24076 UK Stocks Review: FTSE 100 closes flat in low volumes http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=24075 FOREX US FX Review: Dollar up on Bush's Supreme Court victory http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=24069 Asia FX Review: Dlr/yen hits new year high on BOJ tankan, US politics http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=24066 Europe FX Review: Dlr off early highs, but Gore aids at close http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=24068 CREDIT US Credit Review: Treasuries jump on weak retail sales report http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=24064 Europe Credit Review: Bonds unfazed by Gore concession reports http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=24071 Japan Credit Review: Mar plunges to offset gains on weak BOJ tankan http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=24074 COMMODITIES US Futures Summary: Energy plummets; sugar, juice sag http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=24073 Japan Commodity Summary: Japan's Tokyo, Yokohama agricultural commodities futures prices http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=24070 CRB Outlook: Starting slightly firmer on cocoa and platinum http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=24072 EXCHANGES PCX Board Approves Demutualization, Screen-Based Trading http://news.ino.com/press/index.cgi?release=23022 Pacific Exchange to Trade Eleven New Options http://news.ino.com/press/index.cgi?release=23021 10 Major Clearing Organizations Call For Global Central Clearing http://news.ino.com/press/index.cgi?release=23020 OM Stockholm Announces New Fee Structure http://news.ino.com/press/index.cgi?release=23019 EEX Derivatives Market Starts In First Quarter 2001 http://news.ino.com/press/index.cgi?release=23018 ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E F U T U R E S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/futures/ WINNERS DBU1 Butter Sep 2001 125.525 3.525 +2.92 XNH1 Treasury Notes 10yr Mar 2001 104 07/32 82/32 +2.48 PNJ1 Propane Apr 2001 0.5410 0.0100 +1.83 XHZ0 Lean Hogs Dec 2000 58.82 0.95 +1.65 LHZ0 Lean Hogs Dec 2000 58.875 0.950 +1.65 AGZ1 Silver 1,000 oz. Dec 2001 4.990 0.080 +1.59 LBH1 Random Length Lumber Mar 2001 233.10 3.10 +1.34 BEH1 Brazilian EI Bonds Mar 2001 91.80 1.10 +1.20 BRZ1 Brazilian Real Dec 2001 0.47650 0.00500 +1.06 SYH1 British Pound/Japanese Yen Mar 2001 161.21 1.64 +1.03 LOSERS NGF1 Henry Hub Natural Gas Jan 2001 7.537 -0.608 -6.46 HOF1 Heating Oil Jan 2001 0.9097 -0.0515 -5.24 PAM1 Palladium Jun 2001 888.45 -37.70 -4.12 NDZ0 NASDAQ 100 Index Dec 2000 2745.00 -121.50 -4.08 CLZ6 Light Sweet Crude Oil Dec 2006 21.08 -0.87 -3.92 GIZ0 Goldman Sachs Commodity Index Dec 2000 240.05 -9.70 -3.77 TKH1 PSE Tech 100 Mar 2001 896.00 -34.00 -3.66 PBQ1 Frozen Pork Bellies Aug 2001 67.875 -1.925 -2.70 OJF1 Orange Juice Froz. Conc. #1 Jan 2001 81.10 -2.05 -2.46 SBH1 Sugar #11 World Mar 2001 9.41 -0.23 -2.38 ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E S T O C K S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/stocks/ WINNERS SPLN SPORTSLINE.COM INC 6 5/8 1 18/32 +30.86 MTON METRO ONE TELECOMMUN 23 4 14/32 +24.07 SMDK SMARTDISK CORP 5 14/32 1 2/32 +23.94 SBSA SPANISH BROADCASTING SYS'A' 7 1 10/32 +22.83 CMTL COMTECH TELECOMMNS 14 2 3/8 +20.88 MAXY MAXYGEN INC(IPO) 27 4 27/32 +20.18 NTOP NET2PHONE INC 11 22/32 1 7/8 +19.23 PGTV PEGASUS COMMUNICATIONS'A' 22 3 3/8 +18.12 CSCC THRUSTMASTER INC 12 3/8 1 7/8 +17.86 OVTI OMNIVISION TECHNOLOGIES 10 30/32 1 18/32 +17.36 LOSERS HDIIU HYPERTENS'N DIAGNOSTIC UNIT 7 -2 3/4 -27.50 RSYS RADISYS CORP 21 1/2 -6 22/32 -23.73 ONNN ON SEMICONDUCTOR CORP 6 19/32 -2 2/32 -23.57 PHHM PALM HARBOR HOMES 13 -3 23/32 -23.38 AVSR AVISTAR COMMUNICATIONS 5 5/8 -1 3/4 -23.33 AVCT AVOCENT CORP 32 5/8 -10 -23.32 PBKBP PEOPLE'S BANCSHRS CAP TR 9.76% 7 -2 3/32 -23.18 HRLY HERLEY INDUSTRIES 17 -5 -22.79 CKCM CLICK COMMERCE 19 -5 14/32 -22.77 RC GRUPO RADIO CENTRO ADS 6 3/8 -1 26/32 -22.66 FREE MANAGED FUTURES & IRA RETIREMENT KIT http://www.ino.com/specials/icm/ _____________________________________________________________________ T H A N K Y O U _____________________________________________________________________ Thank you for subscribing to the Extreme Markets Daily Digest from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ). 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