Message-ID: <27049357.1075840991083.JavaMail.evans@thyme> Date: Mon, 14 Jan 2002 14:25:59 -0800 (PST) From: evening@ino.com To: alewis@enron.com Subject: Andrew, Monday USD -0.15 CRB -1.89 DOW -96.11 S&P -7.19 NAS -31.72 Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-From: "INO.com" @ENRON X-To: Andrew Lewis X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \ExMerge - Lewis, Andrew H.\Deleted Items X-Origin: LEWIS-A X-FileName: andy lewis 6-25-02.PST M O N D A Y E V E N I N G E X T R E M E M A R K E T S A complimentary service from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ) Monday: The CRB Index is dropping 1.89 points to 192.50. The US Dollar Index retreated 0.15 points to 116.49. The Dow Industrials slipped 96.11 points, at 9891.42, while the S&P 500 dropped 7.19 points, last seen at 1138.41. The Nasdaq Composite eased 31.72 points to 1990.74. _____________________________________________________________________ FREE CBOT Video Trading Futures & Options on the Dow Jones Indices http://www.ino.com/specials/firstfid/cbotvideo.html _____________________________________________________________________ 'ingenuity' -- Index Options Advisory Service - UPDATED TRACK RECORD NOW AVAILABLE! http://store.ino.com/sale/1A433/SUBING-ingenuity _____________________________________________________________________ Dear Andrew: What if you could consistently generate profits of 5%, 10% even 20% each month - EVERY MONTH? You can . . . . . . and it doesn't matter if the markets move up, head down or slither sideways! The need has never been greater -- a winning approach delivered to you that maximizes return on investment. The idea couldn't be more simple. We give you the trades. All you do is place the order. 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Let them do all the work! http://store.ino.com/sale/1A433/SUBING-ingenuity POWERFUL SHORT TERM TRADES Order Toll Free 800-538-7424 - 410-867-7424 All claims on third-party products are made by the publisher and not by INO.com. All Products Guaranteed. _____________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E M A R K E T C O M M E N T A R Y _____________________________________________________________________ The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes Stock indexes closed lower on Monday due in part to the aftermath of last Friday's bearish comments by Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan. In a speech last Friday, he cautioned against the market becoming too bullish as the economy is still vulnerable to additional setbacks during the first half of 2002. The NASDAQ closed lower on Monday thereby confirming last Friday's key reversal down. The stage is set for additional weakness and a possible test of December's low crossing at 1918.50 later this winter. The March S&P 500 index also closed lower on Monday as it confirmed last Friday's key reversal down. Today's loss opened the door for additional weakness during the last half of January while opening the door for a possible test of December's low crossing at 1115 later this winter. The Dow closed lower for the sixth day in a row on Monday as it extended last Friday's breakout below the Dec./Jan. uptrend line. While a short covering bounce due to bargain hunting buying on Tuesday is possible, the door has been opened for a possible test of late-fall lows crossing near 9,691 later this month. Momentum indicators are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near- term. Much of today's weakness was due to fading hopes over the prospects for a V-shaped economic recovery. The dramatic rebound off September's low appears to be running out of gas as the Dow is searching for additional evidence of economic recovery. INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=interest March T-bonds closed lower on Monday due to light profit taking. Early strength was attributed to spillover support from last Friday's comments by Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, which left the market thinking that the odds of another interest rate cut might be higher than previously thought. Today's shallow setback leaves the door open for a possible test of December's reaction high crossing at 105-06 later this month. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish but have become overbought hinting that upside potential appears limited near-term. The CRB INDEX http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes The CRB index closed lower on Monday due to weakness in hogs, bellies, precious metals, fiber, some foods and energies. Today's close below the broken weekly resistance line crossing near 195 increases the odds that a short-term top might have been posted with last week's high. Closes below last fall's uptrend line crossing 190.60 would confirm at short-term top has been posted. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and turning bearish thereby signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=energy The energy markets closed lower on Monday as the markets extend last week's losses due to weakening fundamentals and weak technical support. The commitment of traders report showed that funds had covered 1/3 of their prior short positions in crude oil for the period ended January 8th. February crude oil closed below the November-December uptrend line on Monday thereby opening the door for additional weakness into the later part of January. The door is open for a test of December's low crossing at 18.20 later this month. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. February heating oil closed lower on Monday as last week's bearish inventory report along with continued weak demand continues to weigh on prices. Today's low fell just short of testing December's low crossing at 50.70. Closes below this support level would renew the larger-degree downtrend, which began last year. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling additional weakness is possible near-term. February unleaded gas closed lower on Monday and tested the Nov.-Dec. uptrend line crossing near 54.45 before a short covering bounce tempered some of its losses. I would not be surprised to see a short covering bounce on Tuesday as February may try to consolidate some of its losses off last week's high. Closes below the aforementioned uptrend line would open the door for a test of December's low crossing at 51.50 later this month. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that additional weakness appears likely. February Henry Hub natural gas posted a potential key reversal up on Monday as it consolidates above weekly support crossing at 2.17. However, the mid-range close leaves the door open for sideways trading on Tuesday. Closes above or below last week's trading range are needed to clear up near-term direction in the market. The daily ADX is bearish however, short-term momentum indicators are oversold hinting that a low might be in or is near. CURRENCIES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=currencies The March Dollar closed lower on Monday as it continues to setback off last week's high. Today's low spiked below this year's uptrend line crossing near 116.80. Closes below this support level would open the door for additional weakness and a possible test of the September-December uptrend line crossing near 115.87 later this winter. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible into the latter part of January. The March Swiss Franc closed slightly lower in relatively quiet trading as it appears to be forming the right shoulder of an inverted head and shoulders bottom. Closes above neckline resistance crossing near .6080 are needed to confirm this bottoming formation while opening the door for a larger-degree rebound during the last half of January. Closes below the fall low of .5973 would negate this bottoming formation while opening the door for a possible test of December's low later this winter. The March Canadian Dollar closed modestly higher on Monday as it extends this winter's basing action off key support crossing at .6230. Closes above the December 31st reaction high crossing at .6290 would greatly increase the odds that a short-term bottom has been posted. Momentum indicators are oversold and turning bullish hinting that a bottom has likely been posted. The March Japanese Yen closed slightly lower in narrow trading on Monday as it continues to challenge the fall downtrend line. Closes above this resistance level and last Monday's high crossing at .7696 are needed to confirm a bottom and trend change has taken place. The daily ADX is above 60 and turning down for the second time this week thereby Closes below monthly support crossing at .7558 would open for a test of the next level of long-term support crossing at .7210 later this winter. PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals February gold closed lower on Monday due to light profit taking as it consolidates below the 62% retracement level of last fall's decline crossing at 287.60. If the rally off December's low continues the 75% retracement level crossing at 291.40 is February's next target. Closes below 283.70 would temper the bullish outlook in February gold. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish but becoming overbought warning traders that a short-term top might be in or is near. March silver closed sharply lower on Monday and below initial trendline support crossing at 4.65. Today's decline also turned the daily ADX down thereby confirming that a broad double top with last fall's highs has been posted. I would not be surprised to see a short covering bounce on Tuesday on ideas that today's decline was overdone. If the decline continues, the 38% retracement level of the rally off November's low crossing near 4.495 is March's next target later this month. March copper closed slightly lower on Monday in two-sided trading as it consolidates around the 62% retracement level of the November-January decline, which crosses at 70.62. Closes below broken resistance crossing at 69.50 would temper the friendly outlook in the market could lead to additional weakness during the last half of January. Stochastics are bullish but poised to turn bearish with additional weakness hinting that a top might be near. GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains March corn gapped higher on the open due to spillover strength from soybeans and from last Friday's friendly USDA's reports. However, a lack of fresh supportive news now that January's USDA reports are behind us weighed on prices into the close. The fact that today's supportive export inspection report, which came in at 31.055 million bushels, failed to turn the market around leaves the door open for additional weakness on Tuesday. Current export inspections stand at 616.461 million bushels for the marketing year to date, which is 8.5% behind last year's pace. Technically, today's high spiked above the July-January downtrend line, which crosses near 2.13 3/4. Closes above this downtrend line and today's high at 2.15 1/4 are needed to confirm that a major bottom and trend change has taken place. March wheat closed lower on Monday thereby leaving last Friday's key reversal up unconfirmed. While March remained above weekly trading range resistance crossing at 3.04, it has become very overbought and increasingly vulnerable to a round of profit taking. March's inability to extend last Friday's rally despite news of Egypt's purchase of 220,000 metric tonnes of hard winter wheat is bearish. Stochastics are overbought and warns of a possible setback later this week. Closes below last Friday's low crossing at 3.00 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. At the same time, losses are likely to be limited following last Friday's bullish acreage report, which showed the smallest planted acreage since 1971. SOYBEAN COMPLEX http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains March soybeans gapped up and closed higher on Monday due in large part to a lack of rain across southern Brazil. Additional early support came from today's bullish export inspection report, which came in at 37.191 million bushels and sharply higher soybean meal prices. Profit taking ahead of the close tempered much of today's early gains and leaves the door open for a possible setback on Tuesday where March might try to fill today's gap at 4.44 1/2. At the same time, downside risk at least for this week appears limited due to rumors of impending purchases by China in the very near future. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that a test of November's high crossing at 4.57 1/2 is possible later this month. March soybean meal gapped up and closed sharply higher on Monday as it spiked above the 50% retracement level of the July/January decline, which crosses at 159. Profit taking ahead of the close tempered some of today's gain leaving the door for additional profit taking on Tuesday. Last Friday's USDA report confirmed stronger than expected meal usage and support from higher soybean prices has pushed soybean meal sharply higher over the past two trading sessions. Momentum indicators are bullish signaling that additional gains are possible during the last half of January. I am looking for an inside day on Tuesday as March might try to consolidate some of its recent gains before moving higher. LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock April hogs closed modestly lower on Monday due in large part to inter-market spreading as the five-day reign of the Goldman roll came to an end. Talk of steady to higher cash bids on Tuesday might help support a steady opening in futures. Upside potential appears limited to a possible test of weekly resistance crossing at 61.13. Momentum indicators are overbought and diverging while the daily ADX remains bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the December-January uptrend line crossing near 60.00 and last week's gap crossing at 59.52 would greatly increase the odds that a short-term top has been posted. April cattle closed higher on Monday as it enters the fourth week of a well-defined trading range. Closes above 74.40 or below 72.90 are needed to confirm a trading range breakout and point the direction of the next trending move. Support came from rumors of smaller Showlists, expectations for lower cattle supplies this spring and higher midday boxed beef prices. With the Goldman roll now complete, the market's focus will shift towards the cash market for near- term direction. Momentum indicators are overbought and turning bearish while trend-following indicators are in position to confirm the rebirth of this fall's rally with a breakout above last week's high. FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=food March coffee closed higher on Monday due to speculator buying. Early weakness pushed March below gap support crossing at 48.75. However, the push lower failed to trigger sell stops, which forced weak shorts to cover their positions. As the market turned higher, large funds came in on the buy side to rally the market into the close. Technically, March remains range bound and will need to close above 53 cents to confirm an upside breakout. With Central American and Vietnam selling expected to continue near-term, upside potential for the time being appears limited. March cocoa gapped below the November-January uptrend line and closed lower on Monday thereby increasing the odds that a top was posted with last week's test of weekly resistance crossing at 1422. Momentum indicators are overbought and turning bearish with today's sell off providing additional evidence that a major top has been posted. Today's low-range close leaves the door open for a weaker opening on Tuesday. However, I would not be surprised to see a short covering bounce at some point in time tomorrow. March sugar gapped down and closed below the December- January uptrend line on Monday thereby signaling that a short-term top has been posted. While a short covering bounce is possible on Tuesday, the door has been opened for additional weakness during the last half of January with last fall's uptrend line crossing near 720 being a potential target. Momentum indicators are turning bearish with Monday's loss signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. March cotton closed lower on Monday in quiet trading due to spillover pressure from last Friday's bearish USDA report. The report showed last year's cotton crop at 20.084 million bales compared with December's estimate of 20.06 million bales. Ending stocks came in at 8.6 million bales compared with 8.4 million bales in December. World ending stocks rose from 43.51 to 44.08 million bales. March cotton remains range bound and needs to close above 39.80 or below 34.90 to confirm a breakout of this winter's trading range. Until then look for back and fill type trading to continue. Daily Extreme Commentary is brought to you by GLOBALcharts, INO.com's end-of-day charting software for Futures, Futures Options and Optionable Stocks. http://www.globalcharts.com Search the INO Store - http://store.ino.com/ _____________________________________________________________________ I N O N E W S _____________________________________________________________________ CFTC Recognizes Norwegian Clearing House For OTC Derivatives http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27706 CBOT Moves Closer To Paperless Trading Floor http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27705 SFE Outsources Clearing And Support Functions To OM http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27704 December Trading In London Stocks Rose 22% http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27703 ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E F U T U R E S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/futures/ WINNERS SMF2 Soybean Meal Jan 2002 167.3 5.6 +3.46 NGH3 Henry Hub Natural Gas Mar 2003 2.947 0.100 +3.41 XSF2 Soybeans Jan 2002 446 13 +2.92 XEH2 Soybean Meal Mar 2002 158.2 4.4 +2.85 LBU2 Random Length Lumber Sep 2002 275.00 5.50 +2.05 WN3 Wheat Jul 2003 307 5 +1.66 KCH2 Coffee 'C' Mar 2002 50.40 0.80 +1.61 XLG2 Live Cattle Feb 2002 70.67 0.93 +1.33 LCG2 Live Cattle Feb 2002 70.675 0.825 +1.18 SQ2 Soybeans Aug 2002 455 1/2 5 1/4 +1.17 LOSERS PNG2 Propane Feb 2002 0.2750 -0.0150 -5.17 SIZ4 Silver Dec 2004 4.608 -0.220 -4.60 RRK2 Rough Rice May 2002 4.030 -0.190 -4.50 CLJ2 Light Sweet Crude Oil Apr 2002 19.74 -0.91 -4.42 HOH2 Heating Oil Mar 2002 0.5250 -0.0237 -4.33 AGM2 Silver 1,000 oz. Jun 2002 4.500 -0.195 -4.15 HUG2 New York Harbor Unleaded Gasoline Feb 20 0.5505 -0.0231 -4.03 CCH3 Cocoa Mar 2003 1148 -47 -3.93 ON2 Oats Jul 2002 158 1/2 -4 3/4 -2.90 LBH2 Random Length Lumber Mar 2002 249.00 -6.80 -2.65 FREE 2002 Commodity Reference Calendar http://www.ino.com/specials/rjo/calendar.html ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E S T O C K S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/stocks/ WINNERS DECK DECKERS OUTDOOR 5.1900 1.0510 +25.95 CYCL CENTENNIAL COMMUNICATIONS CORP 10.7100 2.1700 +25.74 SYKE SYKES ENTERPRISES 10.5700 1.7400 +18.65 PATR PATRIOT TRANSPORTATION HOLDING 28.0000 4.2100 +17.91 CHFN CHARTER FINANCIAL CORP 21.5300 3.4500 +17.77 TAR TELEFONICA DE ARGENTINA SA NEW 12.90 1.95 +17.41 OSIS OSI SYSTEMS 19.8400 2.8800 +17.04 MTP MONTANA POWER CO 5.70 0.80 +16.16 TRCMB TRANSCOM WORLDWIDE SA ADS CL B 8.8400 1.0500 +15.00 CBUK CUTTER & BUCK 5.7000 0.7000 +14.08 LOSERS SLNK SPECTRALINK CORP 10.1600 -5.8900 -36.77 RNT.A AARON RENTS CL'A' 10.50 -4.85 -31.60 TASRW TASER INTERNATIONAL WTS 5/06 7.9500 -2.0600 -21.48 RCCC RURAL CELLULAR 'A' 14.9900 -3.5600 -19.60 TMAR TRICO MARINE SVCS 5.8500 -1.3700 -19.13 HDTV SPATIALIGHT INC 5.7900 -1.2600 -17.43 NXTL NEXTEL COMMUNIC'NS'A' 8.3600 -1.6500 -16.50 NTLO NTELOS INC 9.9700 -2.0200 -16.42 DAGR GREEN(DANIEL) CO 5.5000 -0.9500 -15.83 IOMT ISOMET CORP 6.6500 -1.0900 -14.75 _____________________________________________________________________ T H A N K Y O U _____________________________________________________________________ Thank you for subscribing to the Extreme Markets Daily Digest from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ). 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