Message-ID: <7313242.1075840993773.JavaMail.evans@thyme> Date: Tue, 8 Jan 2002 14:26:45 -0800 (PST) From: evening@ino.com To: alewis@enron.com Subject: Andrew, Tuesday DOW -46.50 USD +0.45 NAS +18.63 CRB +0.14 S&P -4.18 Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-From: "INO.com" @ENRON X-To: Andrew Lewis X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \ExMerge - Lewis, Andrew H.\Deleted Items X-Origin: LEWIS-A X-FileName: andy lewis 6-25-02.PST T U E S D A Y E V E N I N G E X T R E M E M A R K E T S A complimentary service from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ) Tuesday: The CRB Index is up 0.14 points to 195.03. The US Dollar Index climbed 0.45 points to 116.78. The Dow Industrials declined 46.50 points, at 10150.55, while the S&P 500 fell 4.18 points, last seen at 1160.71. The Nasdaq Composite gained 18.63 points to 2055.73. _____________________________________________________________________ FREE 2002 FUTURES & OPTIONS TRADING GUIDE Plus Bi-Weekly Hightower Report http://www.ino.com/specials/comek/tradeguide.html _____________________________________________________________________ FED-UP INSIDER REVEALS HOW TO . . . Triple Your Money With Amazing Real-Money-Proven System! _____________________________________________________________________ . . . Guaranteed or it's FREE! http://store.ino.com/sale/1A433/TWMM-Marksman Dear Andrew: I've seen his actual in-the-market results. Lee made a $7,675 profit after commissions. The day before was a cool $17,302 profit, again, after commissions. This is one of the easiest and most reliable systems to implement I've every encountered. $24,977 IN 48 HOURS! This is typical of Lee's enormous trading results. He often makes more each week than most people make in a year! 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Gains in high- technology stocks continue to underpin the NASDAQ while light profit taking left over from Monday continued to pressure the S&P 500 index. Both indexes are at important crossroads as they are challenging their December highs. Closes above these resistance levels are needed to confirm that the rallies off September's lows have renewed. Until then both markets are vulnerable to posting possible double tops with their December highs. The NASDAQ is at a crossroads with the recent spike above December's high. The NASDAQ closed up 18.63 points at 2055.73. The March S&P 500 index closed down 3.50 points at 1163.30 as it consolidates below December's high crossing at 1176. Closes below last week's low at 1136.50 would increase the odds that a double top has likely been posted. The Dow closed lower for the second day in a row on Tuesday due to light profit taking following the release of today's Dept. of Commerce Nov. factory orders report for November. The report showed that factory orders fell by 3.3%; excluding transportation, which was down 0.2%. Factory inventories for November declined by 0.9% while shipments for new orders dropped by 0.6%. If this week's setback continues, minor trendline support crossing near 10,020 is a possible target. Closes below this support level would increase the odds that a short-term top has been posted. If the rally resumes, fib resistance crossing at 10,574.10 is a potential target later this winter. INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=interest March T-bonds closed higher on Monday thereby negating last Friday's key reversal down. Today's rally in March bonds was triggered by Argentina's devaluation of the peso. The devaluation triggered a safe haven move on the part of some market players. Additional support came from economic forecasts, which are calling for factory orders to fall during November, based upon the decline in durable goods orders that has already been reported for the same month. November factory orders are due to be reported at 9:00 CST on Tuesday. The consensus estimate of economists surveyed by ODJ is for a fall of 2.6%, following a steep increase of 7.1% in October. Short-term momentum indicators remain bullish signaling that March bonds may need to correct more in time than price before the next trend change takes place. Closes above 102-05 or below 98-01 are needed to clear up near-term direction in the market. The CRB INDEX http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes The CRB index posted an inside day with a higher close on Tuesday and above 2001's downtrend line, which crosses near 194.35. Consecutive closes above this resistance level will set the stage for a possible test of last September's high, which coincides with the 38% retracement level of the 2000/01 decline crossing at 202.52 later this winter. Strength in grains, fiber and some foods underpinned today's rally. The daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) signals that additional strength is possible. ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=energy The energy markets closed lower on Tuesday in cautious trading ahead of the release of this afternoon's API inventory reports. The fundamental outlook for crude oil and its products remains bearish with low demand and oversupply. Prices are likely to remain sluggish until economic recovery boosts demand or production cuts announced by OPEC cut into oil inventories. February crude oil closed lower on Tuesday however, losses were tempered by a late short covering bounce. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought hinting that Monday's spiking above the 38% retracement level of the September/November decline crossing at 21.77 might have marked a short-term top. However, closes below December's uptrend line crossing near 20.52 will be needed before this is confirmed. February heating oil drifted lower on Tuesday as it confirmed Monday's downside reversal. However, today's mid- range close leaves the door open for sideways trading on Wednesday. Closes below last week's low of 55.20 would open the door for lower prices into mid-January. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling additional weakness is possible near-term. February unleaded gas closed lower on Tuesday and below the 38% retracement level of the September/November decline crossing at 61.18. Closes below December's uptrend line crossing near 60.35 would confirm that a short-term top has likely been posted. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and turning bearish increasing the odds that a double top was posted with last Friday's high. February Henry Hub natural gas closed slightly higher on Tuesday but near mid-range thereby leaving the door open for sideways trading on Wednesday. Closes above trendline resistance crossing near 2.35 along with an upturn by stochastics and the RSI are needed to confirm that a bottom has been posted. CURRENCIES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=currencies The March Dollar closed higher on Tuesday but near session lows due to profit taking late in the session. Nevertheless, today's rally confirmed Monday's key reversal up while signaling that a low was posted with last Wednesday's low. This leaves last fall's uptrend intact for the time being. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish thereby leaving the door open for sideways trading near- term. Closes above 118.85 or below 116.00 are needed to clear up near-term direction in the market. The March Swiss Franc closed lower on Tuesday as it continues to form a potential bull flag. However, closes below last Monday's close of .6020 would temper the near- term bullish outlook in the Franc as a number of momentum indicators would begin to turn neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top has likely been posted. If the rally off the late-December low resumes, December's high crossing at .6154 is March's next target. The March Canadian Dollar posted a potential key reversal up on Tuesday. The back and fill type trading action of the past two weeks is indicative of a market, which is trying to bottom. Closes above last week's high crossing at .6290 are needed to confirm that a double bottom was posted in late- December. Momentum indicators are oversold but have not confirmed that a bottom is in place. The March Japanese Yen plunged to a new contract low on Tuesday as it tested long-term support crossing at .7558. Closes below this support level would open the door for a possible test of the next level of long-term support crossing at .7210 later this winter. Closes above the Nov./Dec. downtrend line crossing near .7696 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. The daily ADX has turned down indicating that a low has either been posted or is very near. PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals February gold closed slightly higher in choppy trading on Tuesday as it continues to work into the apex of December's symmetrical triangle. A breakout of this consolidation formation is needed to clear up near-term direction in the market. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a downside breakout of December's triangle might be near. March silver closed lower on Tuesday due to light profit taking as it consolidates some of its recent gains. However, the door remains open for a test of October's high crossing at 4.74 in the near future. It will take closes below initial trendline support crossing near 4.58 to signal that a short-term top has been posted. The ADX (a trend-following indicator) is bullish signaling that additional strength is still possible. March copper closed lower on Tuesday due to light profit taking as it consolidated some of Monday's gains. The low- range close leaves the door open for additional profit taking in access trading. However, the door has been opened for an eventual test of November's high crossing at 73.70. This week's rally marked the birth of either a c-wave or wave-3 advance, which should be impulsive and exceed November's high later this winter. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that additional gains are possible. GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains March corn closed unchanged in choppy trading on Tuesday as it consolidates some of its recent gains. Today's high-range close leaves the door open for sideways to higher trading into Friday's government reports. Traders are looking for the S&D reports to show an increase in supply and a carryout. Questions over demand may or may not be answered in this report. However, the decline during December has already factored some of the expected bearish new. If the market does not go down following Friday's report, it would confirm all of the negative news is in the market leaving the door open for sideways to higher trading for the balance of January. March wheat closed fractionally higher on Tuesday after testing broken weekly resistance crossing at 3.04. Closes above fib resistance crosses at 3.09 1/2 would open the door for a larger-degree rebound during January. Tightness in U.S. and world stocks over the past year is finally starting to take effect on the market, which has resulted in the rally off December's low. My only concern is whether or not all of the current bullish news has already been priced into the market. Momentum indicators are bullish but becoming overbought warning bullish traders that a short-term top might be near. Bulls will need to see increased export sales to warrant a rally to last July's high at 3.20 during January. SOYBEAN COMPLEX http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains March soybeans posted an inside day with a higher close as dry weather concerns across portions of South American continue to trigger modest fund short covering. Today's high tested this fall's downtrend line crossing at 4.37. Multiple closes above this resistance level are needed to confirm a breakout and bottom while opening the door for a possible test of fall highs crossing at 4.57 1/2 later this month. Momentum indicators are bullish signaling that additional gains are possible near-term. March soybean meal closed higher on Tuesday and above this fall's downtrend line crossing near 144.50. Multiple closes above this resistance level are needed to confirm today's trendline breakout, which signals that a bottom has been posted. Momentum indicators are oversold and turning bullish with Tuesday's rally signaling that a bottom is in place. LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock February hogs posted a key reversal down and closed below December's uptrend line crossing near 55.00 to confirm a top and trend change has taken place. Weakness in cash bids and lower product prices continues to pressure the market. Today's low-range close leaves the door open for additional weakness on Wednesday. Momentum indicators have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible into the later part of January. February cattle posted a downside reversal on Tuesday hinting that the short covering bounce off last Friday's low has likely ended. Additional weakness on Wednesday is needed to confirm today's bearish reversal pattern. If the decline off last week's double top continues, this fall's uptrend line crossing near 68.40 is February's next likely target. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and turning bearish with today's weakness signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=food March coffee closed higher on Tuesday leaving Monday's downside reversal unconfirmed. Trading volume was thin, which allowed for a short covering rally triggered by locals late in the day. Early weakness was tied to spec. and producer selling following Monday's downside reversal. March remains range bound, as closes above 50.00 or below 44.75 are needed to clear up near-term direction in the market. March cocoa posted an inside day with a lower close on Tuesday as it consolidated some of its recent gains following last Friday's breakout above this fall's symmetrical triangle. The door remains open for additional gains with weekly resistance crossing at 1422 marking the next target. If this resistance level is cleared, monthly resistance crossing at 1508 is the next upside target later this winter. March sugar closed higher on Tuesday thereby confirming Monday's key reversal up. March is poised to test December's high crossing at 785, then fib resistance crossing at 804 possibly before Thursday's time turn. Momentum indicators remain bullish but nearing their respective overbought positions hinting that a short-term top might be near. March cotton closed higher on Tuesday as it extends its rebound off last Monday's low that marked a double bottom with December's low. March is poised to test the December 7th reaction high crossing at 38.75 possibly on Wednesday. If cleared, November's high crossing at 39.80 is March's next target. Until this resistance level is broken, March cotton will remain in a trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. Daily Extreme Commentary is brought to you by GLOBALcharts, INO.com's end-of-day charting software for Futures, Futures Options and Optionable Stocks. http://www.globalcharts.com Search the INO Store - http://store.ino.com/ _____________________________________________________________________ I N O N E W S _____________________________________________________________________ Record NYMEX Division Seat Sale http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27691 CBOT Renews Contract To Trade Dow Jones Products http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27690 OneChicago Selects CBOEdirect As Its Match Engine http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27689 CBOT And MidAm MLK Holiday Trading Schedule http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27688 Euronext Moves To Acquire Remaining LIFFE Shares http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27687 Nasdaq Expands Primex To All Stocks In S&P 100 http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27686 EEX Offers Clearing For OTC Forward Transactions http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27685 ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E F U T U R E S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/futures/ WINNERS LBH2 Random Length Lumber Mar 2002 259.50 8.40 +3.35 RRF2 Rough Rice Jan 2002 3.780 0.110 +3.00 DAG2 BFP Milk Feb 2002 11.80 0.28 +2.43 CTH2 Cotton Mar 2002 38.45 0.89 +2.37 RAM2 South African Rand Jun 2002 0.085000 0.001900 +2.29 XRF2 Soybean Oil Jan 2002 16.15 0.35 +2.17 XEK2 Soybean Meal May 2002 144.5 2.7 +1.90 DBK2 Butter May 2002 145.000 2.500 +1.75 PAH2 Palladium Mar 2002 431.00 7.00 +1.65 NGV4 Henry Hub Natural Gas Oct 2004 3.238 0.050 +1.56 LOSERS AGM2 Silver 1,000 oz. Jun 2002 4.411 -0.210 -4.59 XOH2 Oats Mar 2002 203 3/4 -4 3/4 -2.28 OH2 Oats Mar 2002 203 3/4 -4 1/2 -2.16 CCK2 Cocoa May 2002 1367 -25 -1.80 HUG2 New York Harbor Unleaded Gasoline Feb 20 0.6099 -0.0109 -1.75 CLN2 Light Sweet Crude Oil Jul 2002 21.57 -0.28 -1.29 JYH2 Japanese Yen Mar 2002 0.007559 -0.000097 -1.27 LHG2 Lean Hogs Feb 2002 54.675 -0.625 -1.13 NKH2 Nikkei 225 Stock Avg Mar 2002 10715 -115 -1.06 HGF2 Copper Jan 2002 0.7035 -0.0065 -0.92 FREE TRADING KIT-- CD, Video, or Audiocassette Specifically designed for futures & option traders. http://www.ino.com/specials/barkley/invpackage.html ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E S T O C K S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/stocks/ WINNERS JTWO J2 COMMUNICATIONS 5.5300 3.0200 +66.96 PLUG PLUG POWER 12.0400 3.3800 +39.03 GBR GREENBRIAR CORP 16.50 4.00 +32.00 BYBI BACK YARD BURGERS 7.3300 1.7100 +29.48 SATC SATCON TECHNOLOGY 6.4000 1.3900 +27.74 CKC COLLINS & AIKMAN 9.80 2.00 +25.64 NWRE NEOWARE SYSTEMS 7.8100 1.5800 +25.24 ETP ENTERPRISE OIL ADS 26.10 4.90 +23.00 FCEL FUELCELL ENERGY INC 21.8500 4.0900 +22.82 HELE HELEN OF TROY LTD 15.0000 2.5600 +20.81 LOSERS GTW GATEWAY INC 7.69 -2.56 -24.98 BFUN BAM ENTERTAINMENT 5.3200 -1.6800 -24.00 WWCA WESTERN WIRELESS'A' 19.7500 -5.9900 -23.37 SPLX SIMPLEX SOLUTIONS 14.5100 -4.0600 -21.64 MEE MASSEY ENERGY COMP 18.00 -4.20 -18.90 FLWS 1-800-FLOWERS.COM INC CL A 14.6200 -3.1300 -18.01 NTLO NTELOS INC 10.8800 -2.3400 -17.75 SSSW SILVERSTREAM SOFTWARE INC 5.5900 -0.9900 -14.98 GLYN GALYAN'S TRADING 11.2500 -1.8000 -13.64 BABY NATUS MEDICAL 5.3500 -0.7500 -12.71 _____________________________________________________________________ T H A N K Y O U _____________________________________________________________________ Thank you for subscribing to the Extreme Markets Daily Digest from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ). 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