Message-ID: <25162872.1075840994256.JavaMail.evans@thyme> Date: Mon, 7 Jan 2002 14:29:25 -0800 (PST) From: evening@ino.com To: alewis@enron.com Subject: Andrew, Monday DOW -62.69 USD +0.20 CRB +1.07 S&P -7.62 NAS -22.27 Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-From: "INO.com" @ENRON X-To: Andrew Lewis X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \ExMerge - Lewis, Andrew H.\Deleted Items X-Origin: LEWIS-A X-FileName: andy lewis 6-25-02.PST M O N D A Y E V E N I N G E X T R E M E M A R K E T S A complimentary service from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ) Monday: The CRB Index has gained 1.07 points to 194.89. The US Dollar Index climbed 0.20 points to 116.53. The Dow Industrials slipped 62.69 points, at 10197.05, while the S&P 500 declined 7.62 points, last seen at 1164.89. The Nasdaq Composite edged lower 22.27 points to 2037.11. _____________________________________________________________________ FREE: FUTURES INTRODUCTORY COURSE BOOKLET Learn To Analyze The Markets Like A Professional http://www.ino.com/specials/ira/academy.html _____________________________________________________________________ FOUR STEPS TO HIGH PROFITS WITH VIRTUALLY NO RISK _____________________________________________________________________ UNCANNY 99.39% Accuracy and $730,566.72 Profits . . . a Revolutionary Profit Miracle! Andrew Introducing - THE SCIENCE OF AUTOMATIC OPTION PROFITS This shocking book reveals the most accurate and profitable trading strategies I have ever seen - anywhere. With 491 wins out of 494 trades since May 1995, this is a virtual sure-thing-profit secret! In fact, in over 26 years in futures and options, I have never seen a trading system that came so close to virtually guaranteeing profits, trade - after - trade. Win on at least 9 out of every 10 Trades - Absolutely Guaranteed! Now I've seen hundreds of trading systems claiming huge profits - and most just self-destruct when put to the test. That's why I immediately began following this strategy...way back when I first learned of it. The results blew me away! Every trade - every last one - has been profitable since. Take a look for yourself. The phenomenal record was no pipe dream. Trade after trade, it has proven to be the trading system of a lifetime. http://store.ino.com/sale/1A433/TWSP-Uncanny The Science of Automatic Option Profits! Order Toll Free 800-538-7424 - 410-867-7424 All claims on third-party products are made by the publisher and not by INO.com. All Products Guaranteed. _____________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E M A R K E T C O M M E N T A R Y _____________________________________________________________________ The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes Stock indexes closed lower on Monday due to light profit taking as they consolidated some of this year's gains. The NASDAQ is at a crossroads with the recent spike above December's high. The NASDAQ needs to sustain its rally above this resistance level or risk forming a possible double top. Short-term momentum indicators are bullish hinting that additional gains are possible. However, it's a long way from the next fib resistance level crossing at 2207.91. The March S&P 500 index posted an inside day with a lower close after challenging December's high at 1176. Closes above this resistance level are needed to renew its rebound off September's low. Closes below last week's low at 1136.50 would increase the odds that a double top has likely been posted. The Dow closed lower on Monday due to light profit taking ahead of Tuesday's scheduled Dept. of Commerce Nov. factory orders report. The fact that last Friday's lows held, was encouraging to investors, as the recent move above December's high has renewed its rebound off September's low. Momentum indicators are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the rally continues, fib resistance crossing at 10,574.10 is a potential target later this winter. INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=interest March T-bonds closed higher on Monday thereby negating last Friday's key reversal down. Today's rally in March bonds was triggered by Argentina's devaluation of the peso. The devaluation triggered a safe haven move on the part of some market players. Additional support came from economic forecasts, which are calling for factory orders to fall during November, based upon the decline in durable goods orders that has already been reported for the same month. November factory orders are due to be reported at 9:00 CST on Tuesday. The consensus estimate of economists surveyed by ODJ is for a fall of 2.6%, following a steep increase of 7.1% in October. Short-term momentum indicators remain bullish signaling that March bonds may need to correct more in time than price before the next trend change takes place. Closes above 102-05 or below 98-01 are needed to clear up near-term direction in the market. The CRB INDEX http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes The CRB index closed higher on Monday and more importantly above 2001's downtrend line, which crosses near 194.35. Multiple closes above this resistance level are needed to confirm today's trendline breakout, which would then open the door for a larger-degree rebound this winter. The downtrend line also coincides with the 25% retracement level of the 2000/2001 decline crossing at 195. Strength in grains, cattle, some precious metals and fiber underpinned today's rally. The daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) is bullish signaling that additional strength is possible in the coming weeks. ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=energy The energy markets closed lower on Monday due to technically related selling in thin trading volume, which magnified some of today's losses. The market is closely watching OPEC and non-OPEC nations to see if they will comply with their pledged cuts in production, which were suppose to have gone in effect January 1st. February crude oil closed slightly lower on Monday after spiking above the 38% retracement level of the September/November decline crossing at 21.77. However, the setback was rather shallow indicating that February remains in position to challenge November's high crossing at 22.83 later this month. Short-term momentum indicators remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are still possible near-term. February heating oil posted a downside reversal on Monday thereby leaving the door open for follow-through selling on Tuesday. Closes below last week's low of 55.20 would confirm the recent breakout below December's uptrend line while opening the door for sideways to lower prices into mid- January. Today's sell off turned stochastics and the RSI bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. February unleaded gas posted an inside day with a modestly lower close on Monday as it consolidates above the 38% retracement level of the September/November decline crossing at 61.18 and November's high crossing at 62.31. Today's mid- range close leaves the door open for additional short covering gains into the later part of January. The daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) is bullish signaling that additional strength is possible. February Henry Hub natural gas closed slightly lower on Monday but near mid-range after falling just short of testing weekly support crossing at 2.17. Today's mid-range close leaves the door open for sideways trading on Tuesday as February may consolidate above this key support level. Closes above minor trendline resistance crossing near 2.35 along with an upturn by stochastics and the RSI are needed to confirm that a short-term bottom has been posted. CURRENCIES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=currencies The March Dollar posted a key reversal up on Monday as it continues to extend its short covering bounce off last Wednesday's low. A sell off ahead of the close tempered some of today's gains leaving the Dollar to close near mid-range. This leaves the door open for sideways trading on Tuesday. A higher opening followed by a lower close on Tuesday would increase the odds that a short-term top has likely been posted. If the decline resumes, the September/December uptrend line crossing near 115.67 is March's next target. The March Swiss Franc closed slightly higher on Monday and near mid-range hinting that the setback off last Wednesday's high might have come to an end. Today's mid-range close leaves the door open for sideways trading on Tuesday. However, the door remains open for a possible test of December's high crossing at .6154 later this month. Momentum indicators remain bullish signaling that additional strength is still possible during the first half of January. The March Canadian Dollar posted a downside reversal on Monday thereby leaving the door open for additional weakness on Tuesday. Until March closes above last week's high crossing at .6290, the market remains vulnerable to retest this past fall's double bottom crossing at .6230. Momentum indicators are oversold but have not confirmed that a bottom is in place. Look for choppy trading to continue near-term. The March Japanese Yen closed lower on Monday but near mid- range as the market consolidated some of last week's short covering bounce. Today's mid-range close leaves the door open for sideways trading on Tuesday. Closes above today's high crossing at .7696 would confirm an upside breakout of the Nov./Dec. downtrend line thereby signaling that a minor low has been posted. However, it will take closes above November's downtrend line crossing near .7820 to confirm that a bottom is in place. The daily ADX has turned down indicating that a low has either been posted or is very near. PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals February gold posted a downside reversal on Monday after testing the upper boundary of December's symmetrical triangle. February continues to work its way towards the apex of this consolidation formation, which would eventually lead to a breakout that should point the direction of the next trending move. If the rally off December's low resumes. November's high at 283.30 is a possible target later this month. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish but are nearing their overbought zones warning bulls that time might be running out for higher prices. March silver had another wild trading day but managed to close into new highs for the year as it extends last week's breakout above the 75% retracement level of this fall's decline crossing at 4.619. The door is open for a test of October's high crossing at 4.74 later this month. Momentum indicators are overbought however the ADX (a trend-following indicator) is bullish signaling that additional strength is possible. March copper soared to its highest level since early- December due to massive fund short covering following this morning's breakout above the Nov./Dec. downtrend line. Today's breakout and trend change has opened the door for a likely test of November's high later this month. Weekly momentum indicators are bullish signaling that a larger- degree advance appears likely this winter. Closes above November's high could lead to a test of weekly resistance crossing at 76.88 later this year. GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains March corn closed higher due to short covering on Monday. However, a sell off ahead of the close tempered some of today's gains, which led to a low-range close. This low- range close leaves the door open for a possible setback on Tuesday amidst a lack of fresh supportive news. Export inspections were once again disappointing due in part to last week's holiday. Corn inspections were just 14.3 million bushels. The pace is going to have to see a significant pickup in the near future for the market to come anywhere close to USDA's export target for this year. I would not be surprised to see some additional short covering this week as trader's position themselves ahead of the January crop and supply/ demand reports due out Friday morning. March wheat posted an inside day with a lower close on Monday as is consolidated some of last Friday's gains and breakout above the upper boundary of its weekly trading range crossing at 3.04. Tightening U.S. stocks along with a severe contraction in world ending stocks over the past few years leaves the wheat market in a bullish setup. Sources indicate that this year's planted acreage will not see a significant increase from last year, which leaves the market in position to build a weather premium on any perceived supply disruptions. Multiple closes above weekly resistance crossing at 3.04 and the 75% retracement level of last year's decline, which crosses at 3.10 3/4 would confirm a breakout while opening the door for a larger-degree rebound during January. At the same time, momentum indicators are bullish but becoming overbought warning bullish traders that a bearish report on Friday could put in a short-term top as March has rallied over 30 cents since early-December thereby factoring in any likely friendly news out of Friday's report into prices already. SOYBEAN COMPLEX http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains March soybeans gapped up and closed higher on Monday as disappointing weekend showers and forecasts calling for hot/dry weather across South American triggered today's short covering rally. Early strength tested this fall's downtrend line crossing near 4.37 before a sell off ahead of the close tempered some of today's gains. The low-range close leaves the door open for a possible test of today's gap area on Tuesday. Closes above the aforementioned downtrend line crossing at 4.37 would confirm a bottom and trend change has taken place. With funds holding huge short positions in the market, any perception of trouble with South America's soybean crop could trigger additional short covering, which could push prices well above November's high crossing at4.57 1/2 later this winter. March soybean meal closed higher on Monday but near session lows due to a late-session sell off after early strength, which led to a spike above this fall's downtrend line failed to attract follow-through buying. March meal is at a crossroads as it has become oversold with last week's test of key support crossing at 142. Closes below this support level or above the fall downtrend line crossing near 145 are needed to clear up near-term direction in the market. Momentum indicators are oversold and diverging warning bears that a low might be in or is near. LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock February hogs closed unchanged due to a late-session short covering bounce. Early weakness tested December's uptrend line crossing near 55.00. The late-day rebound leaves the door open for a short covering bounce on Tuesday. February hogs need to close below December's uptrend line to confirm a top and trend change has taken place. Momentum indicators have turned bearish from overbought conditions thereby increasing the odds that sideways to lower prices are possible into the later part of January. February cattle posted an inside day with a higher close as it consolidated below December's broken uptrend line. Today's high-range close leaves the door open for a steady to firmer opening on Tuesday, however, the door has been opened for lower prices with last week's trendline breakout. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and turning neutral to bearish signaling it should be only a matter of time before we see lower prices. It will take closes above November's high crossing at 71.35 to negate the near-term bearish outlook in the market. FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=food March coffee posed a downside reversal on Monday as producer hedge pressure ahead of the close weighed on prices. The low-range close leaves the door open for follow-through selling on Tuesday. Closes above 50.00 or below 44.75 are needed to clear up near-term direction in the market. March cocoa closed higher on Monday confirming last Friday's break out above November's high at 1365. Session highs fell short of testing weekly resistance crossing at 1422, which is March's next objective for Tuesday. Short-term and weekly momentum indicators are bullish signaling that additional gains are possible into mid-January. March sugar posted a key reversal up on Monday thereby ending the two-day setback off last week's high. If the rally resumes, December's high crossing at 785, then fib resistance crossing at 804 are March's next target. Momentum indicators remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible into Thursday's time turn. March cotton posted an inside day with a higher close thereby confirming last Friday's key reversal up. A late round of fund short covering pushed the market higher on the day as it extended last week's breakout above the Nov./Dec. downtrend line. Additional support came from light commercial buying although most of there buying was concentrated in the July contract. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the rally off last week's low continues, November's high crossing at 39.80 is March's next likely target. Daily Extreme Commentary is brought to you by GLOBALcharts, INO.com's end-of-day charting software for Futures, Futures Options and Optionable Stocks. http://www.globalcharts.com Search the INO Store - http://store.ino.com/ _____________________________________________________________________ I N O N E W S _____________________________________________________________________ Record NYMEX Options Trading For Fifth Consecutive Year http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27682 2001 'Pivotal' Year For International Securities Exchange http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27681 Euronext Derivatives Trading Up 22.1% In 2001 http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27680 Singapore Exploring Integration Of Operating Systems http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27679 ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E F U T U R E S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/futures/ WINNERS HGG2 Copper Feb 2002 0.7125 0.0405 +6.03 AFH2 Aluminum Mar 2002 0.6790 0.0350 +5.43 XRF2 Soybean Oil Jan 2002 16.24 0.43 +2.72 XSU2 Soybeans Sep 2002 439 11 +2.55 CTH2 Cotton Mar 2002 37.56 0.93 +2.54 BOQ2 Soybean Oil Aug 2002 16.87 0.38 +2.30 SIZ4 Silver Dec 2004 4.762 0.104 +2.19 KCK3 Coffee 'C' May 2003 59.80 1.25 +2.09 SQ2 Soybeans Aug 2002 440 8 +1.85 CCH2 Cocoa Mar 2002 1411 25 +1.80 LOSERS AGG2 Silver 1,000 oz. Feb 2002 4.385 -0.258 -5.56 PNH2 Propane Mar 2002 0.3000 -0.0120 -3.90 LBX2 Random Length Lumber Nov 2002 268.00 -9.70 -3.49 PBK2 Frozen Pork Bellies May 2002 79.300 -2.450 -3.03 QLX2 Central Appalachian Coal Nov 2002 28.25 -0.65 -2.25 OU2 Oats Sep 2002 141 -3 -2.10 HOH2 Heating Oil Mar 2002 0.5769 -0.0110 -1.87 CLQ2 Light Sweet Crude Oil Aug 2002 21.74 -0.39 -1.78 RLH2 Russell 2000 Index Mar 2002 493.55 -7.45 -1.49 NKM2 Nikkei 225 Stock Avg Jun 2002 10825 -150 -1.37 FREE TRADING KIT-- CD, Video, or Audiocassette Specifically designed for futures & option traders. http://www.ino.com/specials/barkley/invpackage.html ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E S T O C K S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/stocks/ WINNERS TALR TALARIAN CORP 5.1500 2.0200 +64.33 ACX ARGUSS COMMUNICATIONS INC 5.73 1.31 +29.64 CRDS CROSSROADS SYSTEMS 6.2900 1.2500 +25.20 SLHN STEARNS & LEHMAN INC 7.2800 1.1600 +19.02 SONS SONUS NETWORKS 5.3800 0.8200 +17.98 BYBI BACK YARD BURGERS 5.8000 0.8500 +17.17 ALU ALLOU HEALTH&BEAUTY'A' 6.55 0.89 +15.86 KANAD KANA SOFTWARE INC NEW 24.6000 3.3600 +15.81 LNOP LANOPTICS LTD 8.2600 1.0800 +15.38 ALGN ALIGN TECHNOLOGY 5.0199 0.6200 +13.78 LOSERS ASW A.C.L.N. LTD 7.23 -3.07 -29.81 CNC-V CONSECO FIN TR V 8.70%'TOPRS' 6.25 -1.80 -22.19 CNC-G CONSECO FIN TR VI 9.00%'TOPRS' 6.75 -1.75 -20.59 CNC-T CONSECO FIN TR I 9.16%'TOPRS' 6.90 -1.75 -19.89 CNC-H CONSECO FIN VII PFD H TOPRS 7.40 -1.80 -19.78 DGIN DIGITAL INSIGHT 18.5000 -4.0400 -18.33 IMCL IMCLONE SYSTEMS 35.8300 -7.6800 -17.66 APS ALAMOSA HOLDINGS INC 9.22 -1.78 -16.21 FOB BOYDS COLLECTION 6.05 -1.13 -15.74 PCSA AIRGATE PCS INC 36.3600 -6.1600 -14.41 _____________________________________________________________________ T H A N K Y O U _____________________________________________________________________ Thank you for subscribing to the Extreme Markets Daily Digest from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ). If you want to subscribe to our other email services, or would like to modify your profile please visit http://www.ino.com/email/. To subscribe a friend, visit: http://www.ino.com/email/ To unsubscribe, visit: http://www.ino.com/email/remove/?email=alewis@enron.com&list=evening -- Copyright 1998-2001 INO.com. All Rights Reserved.