Message-ID: <31585591.1075840972792.JavaMail.evans@thyme> Date: Fri, 1 Feb 2002 14:23:51 -0800 (PST) From: evening@ino.com To: alewis@enron.com Subject: Andrew, Friday CRB +2.22 S&P -8.00 USD -0.53 DOW -12.74 NAS -22.78 Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-From: "INO.com" @ENRON X-To: Andrew Lewis X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \ExMerge - Lewis, Andrew H.\Deleted Items X-Origin: LEWIS-A X-FileName: andy lewis 6-25-02.PST F R I D A Y E V E N I N G E X T R E M E M A R K E T S A complimentary service from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ) Friday: The CRB Index is trending higher 2.22 points to 189.51. The US Dollar Index eased 0.53 points to 119.71. The Dow Industrials edged lower 12.74 points, at 9907.26, while the S&P 500 edged lower 8.00 points, last seen at 1122.20. The Nasdaq Composite retreated 22.78 points to 1911.25. _____________________________________________________________________ FREE: Vantagepoint Market Software Reports Predict The Markets With Up To 80% Accuracy http://www.ino.com/specials/mkttech/vantagepoint.html _____________________________________________________________________ World's most successful trading method now available on videotape! http://store.ino.com/sale/1A433/TWTS-TurtleSecrets _____________________________________________________________________ Dear Andrew: Now you can learn the most powerful, valuable and profitable trading method EVER! . . . Now Revealed In NEW Trading Course For Just A Small, No-Risk Investment World Famous "Turtle" Commodity Trading Method . . . Now Available To You On Video And In Clear Trading Lessons In The Privacy Of Your Home . . . At A VERY Affordable Low, Low Price!! 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Now You Can Learn The "Turtle" Trading System And Strategy In An Exciting Personal Trading Course - In Your Living Room READ OUR VALUABLE 16 PAGE ONLINE BROCHURE NOW BY VISITING: http://store.ino.com/sale/1A433/TWTS-TurtleSecrets Turtle Trading System Revealed! Order Toll Free 800-538-7424 - 410-867-7424 All claims on third-party products are made by the publisher and not by INO.com. All Products Guaranteed. _____________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E M A R K E T C O M M E N T A R Y _____________________________________________________________________ The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes Stock indexes closed lower on Friday due to light profit taking ahead of the weekend as investors chose to digest today's economic data. Losses were limited as a number of Wall Street firms upgraded Computer Sciences after the company delivered third-quarter earnings above expectations. Additional support came from Adobe Systems as its first quarter earnings were upgraded from 20 cents to 22 cents. The NASDAQ closed down 22.78 points at 1911.25. The March S&P 500 index also closed lower on Friday closing down 7.00 points at 1123.40. The Dow closed slightly lower on Friday as investors took profits while digesting today's economic data. While unemployment dropped by 0.2%, a closer look at the data showed that there were fewer people in accounted for in the job market, which distorted today's data. Technically, today's sell off appears to be a correction of the gains of the previous two sessions. Losses were limited due to a solid performance by Walt Disney, which reported first quarter earnings well ahead of expectations. INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=interest March T-bonds closed higher on Friday posting a key reversal up to signal an end to the two-day correction off this week's high. The stage is set for a possible run at January's high crossing at 104-11 early next week. Much of today's support was due to weakness in the equity markets after digesting this morning's economic news, which was less supportive than initially though. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish with Friday's rally hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible next week. The CRB INDEX http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes The CRB index closed sharply higher on Friday supported by strength in hogs, bellies, precious metals, fiber, some foods and energies. Today's rally confirmed Thursday's upside reversal and sets the stage for a test of Monday's high crossing at 190.29. If this minor resistance level is cleared, January's downtrend line, which coincides with the 50% retracement level of last month's decline crossing at 191.18 is the CRB's next target. Short-term momentum indicators are oversold but turned bullish with today's rally thereby increasing the odds that a short-term bottom has likely been posted. ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=energy The energy markets closed sharply higher on Friday in a knee-jerk reaction to news that Kuwait has lost production of 600,000 barrels per day due to a fire at its Rawdatian oil field on Thursday. However, Kuwait indicated that there will be no shortage as oil from stockpiles will replaced the halted production until its other oil fields can raise their production to compensate for this loss. March crude oil posted a new high close for the week on Friday thereby renewing its rebound off the mid-January low. Momentum indicators remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible during the first half of February. Additional strength on Monday is needed to confirm today's breakout above the previous reaction high. If today's breakout is confirmed the door would be opened for a possible test of the upper boundary of this winter's trading range crossing at 22.50 later this month. March heating oil closed sharply higher on Friday in reaction to the oilfield explosion in Kuwait on Thursday. Today's close above minor trading range resistance crossing at 54.30 confirms that a triple bottom was posted with Wednesday's low while opening the door for additional short covering during the first half of February. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Longer-term, I am looking for a possible test of the double top crossing at 59.20. March unleaded gas closed into new highs for the week on Friday. Additional strength on Monday is needed to confirm today's breakout above the previous reaction high crossing at 59.90. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. Longer-term I am looking for a possible test of January's high crossing at 64.35. March Henry Hub natural gas closed steady on Friday but remains above this winter's initial downtrend line crossing near 2.08. Closes above broken support crossing at 2.155 are needed to confirm this week's trendline breakout, which would then open the door for a larger-degree rebound during February. Momentum indicators have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. CURRENCIES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=currencies The March Dollar posted an inside day with a lower close thereby ending the bounce off Wednesday's low. However, it will take closes below this week's low crossing at 119.51 and then initial trendline support crossing at 119.27 to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Until then, the door remains open for a possible test of weekly resistance crossing at 121.29 later this winter. Stochastics and the RSI are very overbought and turning neutral hinting that a top is in or near. On the weekly chart the Dollar is forming a potential double top. The March Swiss Franc posted an inside day with a higher close due to light short covering ahead of the weekend as it consolidated some of this week's losses. Nevertheless, the door remains open for a test of December's low crossing at .5797 in the near future. The daily ADX is bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible while momentum indicators are oversold hinting that a double bottom might be forming. The March Canadian Dollar posted an inside day with a lower close on Friday due to light profit taking ahead of the weekend. Today's sell off left Thursday's key reversal up unconfirmed. If the rally resumes next week, fib resistance crossing at .6355 is March's next target. The March Japanese Yen posted an inside day with a higher close on Friday due to short covering ahead of the weekend. Until March closes above last fall's downtrend line and broken support at .7558, the door remains open for additional weakness near-term. If the decline continues next week, long-term support crossing at .7371 is March's next target. PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals February gold closed sharply higher on Friday due to short covering triggered by weakness in the equity markets and a lower Dollar. February posted its highest close since January 16th. Profit taking ahead of the close tempered some of today's gains leaving the door open for a possible inside day on Monday. However, stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that a test of January's double top at 289.90 is possible in the near future. March silver closed higher on Friday due to short covering following Thursday's spike of the 75% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 4.22. Closes above broken support crossing at 4.32 are needed to signal that a short-term bottom has been posted. Momentum indicators are oversold signaling that additional short covering is possible early next week. March copper extended Thursday's rally today spiking above November's high crossing at 73.70 before light profit taking ahead of the close trimmed gains. Rising optimism over the countries economic outlook triggered Thursday's short covering rally, which was exaggerated as buy stops were triggered on the way up. Momentum indicators have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the rally continues during the first half of February, weekly fib resistance crossing at 76.88 is March's next upside target. GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains March corn closed lower on Friday as it spiked below weekly support crossing at 2.04 1/2 amidst a lack of supportive news. If this long-term support level fails to halt the decline, psychological support crossing at 2.00 is March's next downside target. Short-term momentum indicators are bearish but have entered their respective oversold zones hinting that a low might be near. This suggests that we could see the February low come early in the month especially if we get a setback in the U.S. Dollar. With little incentive for foreign buyers or end users to extend coverage much past 30-days at least until we get into early spring, prices are likely to drift sideways to lower ahead of the February supply/demand report. March wheat closed fractionally higher on Friday as it continues to consolidate just above minor support crossing at 2.83. If this support level fails to halt this month's decline, a test of the December low crossing at 2.77 is likely by early-February. Momentum indicators are bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible into early- February. The decline off January's high has seen funds liquidate their long positions just as the seasonal trends begin to turn bearish. This leaves the door open for lower prices during February if funds decide to build a short position in wheat. SOYBEAN COMPLEX http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains March soybeans posted an inside day with a lower close on Friday as it closed out the week consolidating above the 75% retracement level of January's rally crossing at 4.24 3/4. Lack of supportive news and early harvest beginning in portions of Northern Brazil erased Thursday's gains. Momentum indicators are becoming oversold but remain bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible during the first half of February. I would not be surprised to see March soybeans try and test January's low crossing at 4.15 3/4 to post a possible double bottom on the daily chart before the February low has likely been posted. The market has largely ignored this week's strong export pace of U.S. soybeans as it has chosen to focus on the bearish aspects of another record South American crop. The market dynamics have changed significantly over the past four years to where end users and importing countries always have an abundant supply of new soybeans every six months. This fact alone have shifted their buying pattern to hand to mouth while giving them little reason to build much of a weather premium into prices. March soybean meal posted an inside day with a lower close on Friday amidst a lack of supportive news. Today's close below minor fib support has opened the door for a possible test of gap support crossing at 147.90 possibly next week. Short-term momentum indicators signal that sideways to lower prices are likely during the first half of February. I would not rule out the possibility of March meal testing this winter's low at 142 before the February low is posted later this month. LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock April hogs closed into new contract highs on Friday amidst steady to higher cash bids. Today's new contract high confirmed that bulls have regained control of the market. Additional strength next week could lead to a test of weekly resistance crossing at 63.60. Short-term momentum indicators are turning neutral to bullish with today's rally indicating that we should see one more leg up in this winter's rally. April cattle gapped down on the open but quickly turned higher and filled the opening gap after follow-through selling failed to materialize. However, profit taking ahead of this afternoon's cattle inventory report pressured the market into the close as April remains below the 75% retracement level of last year's decline, which crosses at 76.00. This afternoon's inventory report showed that total cow/calf inventory was at 99% of year ago levels at 96.7 million head. The 2001 calf crop came in at 99% of year ago levels at 38.3 million head. This report was inline with pre-report estimates and should not be a major factor in Monday's trading. If this winter's rally resumes on Monday and clears fib resistance crossing at 76.00, the bottom of last summer's trading range crossing at 77.10 is a potential target later this winter. Momentum indicators are bullish but diverging warning bulls that a short-term top might be near. Closes below initial trendline support crossing near 74.40 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=food March coffee gapped down on the open due to renewed fund selling. However, a lack of follow-through selling triggered a short covering rebound, which led to an upside reversal on the day. Closes above this week's high at 45.80 would increase the odds that a short-term bottom might have been posted with today's spike low as momentum indicators are very oversold. March cocoa closed slightly higher on Friday in lackluster trading as it continues to correct more in time than price indicating that supply/demand fundamental are evenly matched for the time being. Close above 1422 or below 1260 are needed to confirm a breakout of this winter's trading range and point the direction of the next trending move. March sugar posted an inside day with a lower close on Friday as it tried to consolidate some of this week's losses and breakout below November's reaction low crossing at 661. However, the door is open for a test of last October's low crossing at 611 possibly next week. Momentum indicators have entered their respective oversold zones but remain bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. March cotton gapped up and closed sharply higher on Friday as a higher than expected opening call triggered aggressive early trade buying. Buy stops above the market were tripped, which exaggerated today's rebound although a short-term bottom was confirmed by the rally. Stochastics along with other momentum indicators turned bullish today signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible next week. Longer-term the burdensome supplies will likely limit upside potential to the upper boundary of this winter's trading range crossing at 39.80. Daily Extreme Commentary is brought to you by GLOBALcharts, INO.com's end-of-day charting software for Futures, Futures Options and Optionable Stocks. http://www.globalcharts.com Search the INO Store - http://store.ino.com/ _____________________________________________________________________ I N O N E W S _____________________________________________________________________ CME Posts Best January Volume On Record, Up 40% http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27759 Additional CFTC Relief For Firms Affected By 9/11 http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27758 CFTC Announces Agency Restructuring http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27757 German Stock Exchange Volume Jumps 40% In January http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27756 Eurex Off To Good Start -- 65M. Contracts In January http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27755 Deutsche Borse And Cedel International Agree Terms http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27754 ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E F U T U R E S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/futures/ WINNERS SBN3 Sugar #11 World Jul 2003 5.99 0.35 +5.88 CTH2 Cotton Mar 2002 37.45 2.02 +5.69 HUH2 New York Harbor Unleaded Gasoline Mar 20 0.6034 0.0268 +4.67 CLH2 Light Sweet Crude Oil Mar 2002 20.38 0.90 +4.62 AGG2 Silver 1,000 oz. Feb 2002 4.160 0.159 +3.97 HOJ2 Heating Oil Apr 2002 0.5552 0.0209 +3.92 PNH2 Propane Mar 2002 0.2950 0.0100 +3.51 SIU2 Silver Sep 2002 4.346 0.120 +2.82 YIK2 Mini NY Silver May 2002 4.360 0.100 +2.35 GIJ2 Goldman Sachs Commodity Index Apr 2002 173.50 3.50 +2.06 LOSERS NKH2 Nikkei 225 Stock Avg Mar 2002 9700 -265 -2.66 RRH2 Rough Rice Mar 2002 3.650 -0.075 -2.01 SMK2 Soybean Meal May 2002 146.1 -2.6 -1.75 CLF3 Light Sweet Crude Oil Jan 2003 21.04 -0.33 -1.61 OK2 Oats May 2002 182 -2 3/4 -1.48 HOF3 Heating Oil Jan 2003 0.6087 -0.0086 -1.45 DBN2 Butter Jul 2002 139.000 -2.000 -1.42 NDM2 NASDAQ 100 Index Jun 2002 1542.00 -22.00 -1.41 SEH2 Sugar #14 Domestic Mar 2002 20.94 -0.25 -1.18 LBX2 Random Length Lumber Nov 2002 276.00 -3.00 -1.08 FREE TRADING KIT-- CD, Video, or Audiocassette Specifically designed for futures & option traders. http://www.ino.com/specials/barkley/invpackage.html ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E S T O C K S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/stocks/ WINNERS ENER ENERGY CONV DEVICES 23.2700 3.9100 +20.22 UCOMA UNITED GLOBAL COM INC CL A 6.1000 0.9400 +18.08 PLUG PLUG POWER 11.2000 1.5800 +16.11 ASV AG SERVICES OF AMERICA 14.00 1.94 +16.09 EXLT EXULT INC 11.1600 1.5100 +15.60 SIPX SIPEX CORP 12.4800 1.7000 +15.38 ESST ESS TECHNOLOGY INC 22.8900 2.8900 +14.52 FCEL FUELCELL ENERGY INC 18.0800 2.2200 +13.94 STST SENSYTECH INC 6.9700 0.8500 +13.89 ERES ERESEARCH TECH INC 12.9025 1.5025 +13.18 LOSERS DYII DYNACQ INTL 7.6200 -3.3800 -30.76 LMNX LUMINEX CORP 13.0400 -4.2700 -24.85 CYCL CENTENNIAL COMMUNICATIONS CORP 6.8500 -1.5000 -18.75 CGO ATLAS AIR WORLDWIDE HLDGS INC 13.72 -2.23 -13.98 WMI WASTE MANAGEMENT 25.13 -3.73 -12.94 PIO POINEER CP ADR 18.35 -2.64 -12.58 NIPNY NEC CORP ADR 7.0100 -0.9400 -12.21 HYTDE MAXTOR CORP DECS 2002 6.1000 -0.8100 -12.07 CMIN COMMONWEALTH INDUSTRIES 5.1500 -0.6800 -11.72 SE 7-ELEVEN INC 10.42 -1.35 -11.49 _____________________________________________________________________ T H A N K Y O U _____________________________________________________________________ Thank you for subscribing to the Extreme Markets Daily Digest from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ). 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