Message-ID: <17488908.1075840973526.JavaMail.evans@thyme> Date: Fri, 1 Feb 2002 00:49:09 -0800 (PST) From: newsletters@123jump.com To: alewis@enron.com Subject: ISN Outlook: EBAY - GAVELS AND GUNS Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-From: Internet Stock News@ENRON X-To: alewis@enron.com X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \ExMerge - Lewis, Andrew H.\Deleted Items X-Origin: LEWIS-A X-FileName: andy lewis 6-25-02.PST INTERNET STOCK NEWS[tm] http://www.123jump.com Internet Stock News Outlook 1/31/2002: EBAY: GAVELS AND GUNS ___________________________________________________________________ What EBay needs is a war chest and it builds one, too. The company has new, higher action fees from today, January 31. EBay's guidance for the upcoming Q1 and Q2 2002 is for revenues of $500 million which translates into a modest 7% quarterly revenue increase. If analysts have got it right, the fee hike only will bring a 10% revenue gain in Q2. The money aren't needed so much for technical upgrades. EBay bought another StorEdge 9900, but Sun (SUNW) cut prices on those in November. What is the real money-burner for EBay is its R&D, marketing and administrative expenses which in 2001 were more than EBay's total revenues for 2000. -----------------------------SPONSOR------------------------------- Rip-Roaring Returns from the Post-September 2001 Rebound! Few profited as handsomely as Steve Harmon in today's market turnaround. For instance, his portfolio of travel security stocks is up an incredible +88% since 9/01. And the best is yet to come! Get a jump on 2002 with a FREE 30-day trial: http://www.investools.com/c/go/BRBN/JFN-brbnTD1?s=S601 ------------------------------***---------------------------------- It is true that EBay's revenue growth in the past twelve months more than offsets the expenses increase. Revenues grew by 74%, while R&D, marketing and administrative costs grew by 46%. The broad consensus, however, is that EBay's investors will have to get used to much lower growth rates in the quarters and years to come. And those growth rates may be further challenged by nothing else but EBay's own success. EBay created a business phenomenon which has become much too sweet to be ignored by the larger and hungrier players in the Internet field. EBay's success was also very cheap - the company has only $12 million long-term debt - less than a half of its last quarter's net income. Amazon.com (AMZN) owes more than $2 billion. EBay doesn't have an unprofitable year since 1997. The top line is even hotter - in 2001, EBay's $749 million revenues surpassed those of Yahoo (YHOO) - $717 million. The question the big on-line players are asking now is no longer how EBay did it, but how can they replicate this success under their own portals. Furthermore, the main cited reason for Yahoo's declining business was the fall in advertising rates, but those would never fall if Yahoo continued to be a portal monopoly. EBay as an undisputed leader in on-line auctioning still has the comfort to increase its fees. But EBay knows it can't be done too much or too often. So far, EBay managed to crush aspiring auctioneers like FairMarket (FAIM). FairMarket finally brought its business to EBay, but it also brought it to Microsoft. Microsoft's auctions are conducted through the fairmarket.msn.com Web site. EBay will no longer expand without meeting more of the big ones on its path. Its last deal with Sotheby's (BID) is an example. It comes months after sothebys.amazon.com was up and running. Yahoo also is hardly comfortable being eclipsed by EBay which started as a Web site for collectors of PEZ candy dispensers. EBay will sooner or later face a serious challenge on its turf. And for that it needs a sizeable war chest. For companies that are both smart and lucky always have times when they have to prove that they are strong, too. ----------------------------SPONSOR----------------------------- Get a FREE Interactive CD Guide to Selecting Winning Stocks... and 10 FREE issues of Investor's Business Daily! No obligation. Nothing to cancel. Offer available in the U.S. only. Subscribers within the last six months are not eligible. http://www.123jump.com/partners.htm?id=86 ------------------------------***------------------------------- ISN tracks the performance of companies with products or services influencing the development of the Internet as a market. The list will be continuously revised and updated. Name (Ticker) Stock Price (% Change 2002) ------------------------------------------------------------- MarketWatch.com, Inc. (MKTW) 31% Multex.com, Inc. (MLTX) 30% barnesandnoble.com inc. (BNBN) 30% LookSmart, Ltd. (LOOK) 28% Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) 27% eUniverse, Inc. (EUNI) 17% Hoover's, Inc. (HOOV) 13% priceline.com Incorporated (PCLN) 3% Global Sources Ltd. (GSOL) 2% WebEx Communications, Inc. (WEBX) 1% FTD.COM INC. (EFTD) -1% FreeMarkets, Inc. (FMKT) -6% Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) -6% DoubleClick Inc. (DCLK) -6% Comcast Corporation (CMCSK) -7% Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) -8% Travelocity.com Inc. (TVLY) -8% SBC Communications, Inc. (SBC) -8% TMP Worldwide, Inc. (TMPW) -10% E*TRADE Group, Inc. (ET) -12% eBay Inc. (EBAY) -13% Sun Microsystems, Inc. (SUNW) -16% VeriSign, Inc. (VRSN) -17% Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. (CHKP) -17% Akamai Technologies, Inc. (AKAM) -21% 1-800-FLOWERS.COM, Inc. (FLWS) -22% AOL Time Warner, Inc. (AOL) -23% VerticalNet, Inc. (VERT) -24% Homestore.com, Inc. (HOMS) -35% McAfee.com Corporation (MCAF) -42% CNET Networks, Inc. (CNET) -42% ----------------------------------------------------------- INTERNET STOCK NEWS (ISN) (c) 2001 Disclaimer: The material herein is for informational purposes only and should not be deemed an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities. http://www.123jump.com/disclaimer.htm ----------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------- You are currently subscribed to Ones To Watch as: alewis@enron.com To Cancel your subscription please go to: http://123jump.com/confirm.htm?listid=117996&mid=115298 To Change your subscription please go to: http://123jump.com/letters.htm?S=L&email=alewis@enron.com