Message-ID: <9025203.1075857103761.JavaMail.evans@thyme> Date: Mon, 11 Dec 2000 10:17:00 -0800 (PST) From: evening@ino.com To: alewis@ect.enron.com Subject: Monday USD +0.25 CRB +1.76 S&P +10.34 DOW +12.89 NAS +97.28 Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-From: "INO.com" X-To: alewis@ect.enron.com X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \Andrew_Lewis_Dec2000\Notes Folders\Discussion threads X-Origin: Lewis-A X-FileName: alewis.nsf M O N D A Y E X T R E M E M A R K E T S A complimentary service from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ) December 11: The CRB Index has climbed 1.76 points to 232.36. The US Dollar Index moved up 0.25 points to 114.42. The Dow Industrials edged higher by 12.89 points, at 10725.80, while the S&P 500 edged higher by 10.34 points, last seen at 1380.23. The Nasdaq Composite trended higher 97.28 points to 3014.71. 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Find out why CNBC Chief Technical Analyst, John Murphy wants you to know this little know market secret and why he thinks that CNBC tips the scales in the other direction for their TV viewers! 'Applying Technical Methods to Today's Trading' - John Murphy http://store.ino.com/moreinfo/FMV2793 Breakthr ough Trading - Click Here! Order Toll Free 800-538-7424 - 410-867-7424 All claims on this product are made by the publisher and not by INO.com. All Products Guaranteed. _____________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E M A R K E T C O M M E N T A R Y _____________________________________________________________________ The STOCK INDEXES The Nasdaq and S&P's extended last week's short covering rally on ideas that all of the bad news about earnings has been discounted into the markets. Additional support came from ideas that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in 2001. The Nasdaq spiked above this fall's downtrend line crossing near 2950 on Monday. Multiple closes above this resistance level are needed to confirm a breakout and trend change has taken place. Meanwhile, the rally in tech stocks helped pull the broader market higher on the day. Closes above last week's high crossing at 10,917.30 would open the door for a possible test of last spring's high crossing at 11,425.40. INTEREST RATES March bonds posted a inside day with a lower close as it consolidated some of last week's gains. Light pressure came from today's rebound in the equity markets. Stochastics and RSI are bullish but becoming overbought warning traders that a short- term top may be in or near. Closes below November's uptrend line crossing near 102-24 would signal a top and trend change has taken place. CRB INDEX closed higher on Monday led by gains in energies, some foods, and fiber. The CRB continues to consolidate below this fall's high of 234.38. Closes above this resistance level or below the late-November reaction low crossing at 228.04 are needed to clear up near-term direction. ENERGIES The energy markets closed higher on Monday due to short covering as Iraqi crude oil exports remain halted for the 11th day and natural gas prices surged due to cold weather moving across the United States. Momentum indicators are bearish but becoming oversold hinting a short-term bottom in January crude oil and the products may be near. Closes above last Thursday's highs in any or all of the complex would strongly suggest a low has been posted. CURRENCIES the March Dollar extended its short covering bounce off last Thursday's low and closed above broken trendline support crossing near 114. Closes below last week's low at 112.64 are needed to confirm the recent trendline breakout. However, momentum indicators have become oversold hinting a short covering bounce is possible before this fall's decline continues. The March Swiss Franc and D-mark closed lower on Monday as profit taking from last week's continues. The overbought condition of a number of momentum indicators that hints further setbacks is possible before the corrections are over. The March Japanese Yen posted an inside day with a higher close due to light short covering as it extends the current trading range. Momentum indicators have turned bullish signaling sideways to higher prices near-term are possible. Closes above .9279 or below .9088 are needed to clear up near-term direction in the market. PRECIOUS METALS were closed mixed on Monday. February gold extended its setback off last Thursday's high due to the rebound in the U.S. Dollar and in doing so turned a number of momentum indicators neutral to bearish. Closes below November's uptrend line crossing near 271.80 would confirm the rally off October's low has likely come to an end. March silver posted an inside day with a higher close due to light short covering as it consolidated some of last Friday's losses. While another day or two of consolidation is possible, the door is open for a test of November's low at 4.69 cents later this month. March copper closed higher on Monday but near session lows due to profit taking ahead of the close. Today's spike of the 62% retracement level crossing at .8947 followed by the low-range close is a warning to bulls that a short-term top may be in or near. Closes below last Friday's low crossing at 87.55 would likely turn a number of momentum indicators bearish and increase the odds that a short- term top has been posted. GRAINS closed lower on Monday. March corn posted another inside day with a lower close as traders squared positions ahead of Tuesday's supply and demand reports. Additional pressure came from news that China sold around 1 million tons of corn on Friday. Expectations for additional sales by China later this week added to the bearish tone. Traders are looking for the USDA to lower their export projections by 50-100 million bushels in tomorrow's reports. Today's export inspection report came in at a disappointing 28.394 million bushels verse 39.660 million bushels last week. March wheat also closed lower on Monday due to spillover weakness from corn. Traders were reluctant to buy wheat on chances that some of the hard winter wheat crop may experience winterkill due to the winter storm rolling across the plains. Traders are expecting to see the USDA lower its export projection by some 25-million bushels due to this fall's slow export pace. March wheat is challenging the lower boundary of this fall's trading range at 2.69. If this support gives way, 2.63 1/2 then 2.50 are potential targets later this winter. SOYBEAN COMPLEX closed mixed on Monday. January beans closed fractionally higher on Monday due to light position squaring ahead of tomorrow's supply and demand reports. The trade is looking for a 25-35 million bushels increase in the USDA export projection due to this fall's strong export sales. Multiple closes above fib resistance crossing at 5.10 3/4 would open the door for a possible test of this fall's high at 5.25 later this winter. January soybean meal closed higher on Monday thereby confirming last Friday's upside reversal. Expectations for continued strong export demand through this winter in both the Asian and European markets will continue to underpin the meal market. Closes above the late- November high crossing at 193.50 would renew November's rally and set the stage for a test of weekly resistance crossing at 202.50 later this month. January bean oil posted an inside day with a lower close on Monday as it extends last week's consolidation pattern. At the same time, momentum indicators are bearish signaling sideways to lower prices near-term are possible. A neutral to bearish supply and demand report on Tuesday may provide the catalyst needed to renew the decline off last week's high. The stage appears to be set for a test of the late-November low at 14.64 later this month. LIVESTOCK closed mixed on Monday. February hogs closed slightly higher on Monday but near session lows as profit taking ahead of the close erased early strength tied to weather concerns. Momentum indicators are bullish but diverging warning traders that a broad double top may be forming. Closes below last Friday's reaction low along with a downturn by stochastics would increase the odds a top has been posted. February cattle posted an inside day with a lower close as it consolidated some of last week's gains. News that the heaviest snowfall stayed away from cattle-feeding areas limited gains in the market, which fell ahead of the close due to light profit taking. At the same time, cold weather is expected to slow gains, which will help underpin the market. Momentum indicators are bullish hinting a test of long-term resistance crossing near 77.92 is still possible later this month. FOOD & FIBER markets were mixed on Monday. March coffee posted an inside day with a lower close on Monday as it consolidated some of last Friday's losses. However, today's low-range close signals additional weakness is possible later this week. If the decline continues, the August 1993 low crossing at 66.25 is March's next target. March cocoa closed lower on Monday signaling the two-day bounce off last Wednesday's low has come to an end. Today's loss turned a number of momentum indicators neutral to bearish signaling a test of November's low at 713 is possible. Closes below this support level would open the door for a test of psychological support crossing at 700 later this winter. March sugar posted a downside reversal on Monday due to a lack of cash buying. March continues to consolidate above minor support crossing at 950. However, momentum indicators remain bearish signaling sideways to lower prices into the end of the year are possible. March cotton posted an inside day with a higher close due to light position squaring ahead of Tuesday's supply and demand report. The big question is whether or not the USDA will lower world production enough to off set lower US demand. Closes above 69.25 or below 66.90 cents are needed to clear up near-term direction in the market. Daily Extreme Commentary is brought to you by GLOBALcharts, INO.com's end-of-day charting software for Futures, Futures Options and Optionable Stocks. http://www.globalcharts.com Search the INO Store - http://store.ino.com/ _____________________________________________________________________ T O P N E W S _____________________________________________________________________ STOCKS Japan Stocks Review: Up 2.2%; tops key 15,000 on strong Nasdaq http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=24042 Add1: US Equities Review: Nasdaq up 3%, DJIA inches up, analysts bullish http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=24051 UK Stocks Review: FTSE gains as techs maintain momentum http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=24050 FOREX US FX Review: Euro falls on M&A activity, US political woes http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=24044 Asia FX Review: Yen edging higher against dollar and euro http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=24041 Europe FX Review: Sterling bought heavily in M&A-related trade http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=24043 CREDIT US Credit Review: Bonds decline sharply as equities gain http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=24039 Europe Credit Review: Debt prices slip but display resilience http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=24046 Japan Credit Review: Mar falls on firm stocks, short-term rates' rise http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=24049 COMMODITIES US Futures Summary: Energy boosts CRB to 1-week high http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=24048 Japan Commodity Summary: Japan's Tokyo, Yokohama agricultural commodities futures prices http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=24045 CRB Outlook: Hovering around neutral http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=24047 EXCHANGES Annual Changes To The Nasdaq-100 Index http://news.ino.com/press/index.cgi?release=23004 CBOT To Launch 5-Year Agency Note Futures And Options http://news.ino.com/press/index.cgi?release=23003 ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E F U T U R E S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/futures/ WINNERS CCN2 Cocoa Jul 2002 888 89 +9.88 NGF1 Henry Hub Natural Gas Jan 2001 9.413 0.829 +9.77 NDZ0 NASDAQ 100 Index Dec 2000 2982.00 221.50 +8.13 PNG1 Propane Feb 2001 0.6800 0.0425 +6.85 SGH1 S&P 500/BARRA Growth Index Mar 2001 780.50 37.00 +5.00 YSZ0 NYSE Small Composite Dec 2000 658.50 29.30 +4.58 MVZ0 Value Line Index. Mini Dec 2000 1129.00 49.00 +4.50 HOG1 Heating Oil Feb 2001 0.9462 0.0383 +4.02 HUG1 New York Harbor Unleaded Gasoline Feb 20 0.7740 0.0297 +3.78 GIZ0 Goldman Sachs Commodity Index Dec 2000 256.00 9.05 +3.68 LOSERS BDF1 Oriented Strand Board Jan 2001 160.00 -8.00 -4.97 NGK3 Henry Hub Natural Gas May 2003 3.710 -0.106 -2.75 CCH1 Cocoa Mar 2001 719 -14 -1.91 XWZ1 Wheat Dec 2001 316 -5 -1.56 XEZ1 Soybean Meal Dec 2001 175 -2.5 -1.43 SMZ1 Soybean Meal Dec 2001 175 -2.5 -1.41 EJH1 Euro/Japanese Yen Mar 2001 95.97 -1.13 -1.16 DAG1 BFP Milk Feb 2001 9.55 -0.11 -1.14 XRF1 Soybean Oil Jan 2001 15.03 -0.17 -1.14 LBF1 Random Length Lumber Jan 2001 220.30 -2.50 -1.13 ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E S T O C K S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/stocks/ WINNERS QSCG QS COMMUNICATIONS AG ADS 9 5/8 4 10/32 +80.23 VATA VERSATA INC 9 5/8 2 30/32 +43.12 QRSI QRS CORP 7 7/8 2 13/32 +43.02 LTRX LANTRONIX INC 8 3/4 2 3/8 +39.58 EPAY BOTTOMLINE TECHNOLOGIES 27 7 22/32 +38.92 SIMG SILICON IMAGE 8 21/32 2 11/32 +37.13 TUTS TUT SYSTEMS 9 3/8 2 1/2 +36.04 ISLD DIGITAL ISLAND INC 5 3/8 1 3/8 +34.38 NCNX NUCENTRIX BROADBAND NETWORKS 16 30/32 4 1/4 +34.00 MCOM METRICOM INC 12 18/32 3 3/32 +32.57 LOSERS JNIC JNI CORP(IPO) 34 3/4 -28 -44.44 GELX GELTEX PHARMACEUTICALS 48 -13 14/32 -21.94 INSP INFOSPACE INC 11 6/32 -2 17/32 -18.49 BSTE BIOSITE DIAGNOSTIC 28 30/32 -6 5/8 -18.37 SIRI SIRIUS SATELLITE RADIO INC 25 2/32 -5 10/32 -17.45 ISRG INTUITIVE SURGICAL 8 3/8 -1 19/32 -16.67 RPS MORGAN STAN DW 6% RESET PERQS 7 3/4 -1 3/8 -15.49 PCG-CA PG&E CAPITAL I 7.90% QUIPS 19 5/8 -3 19/32 -15.31 PIR PIER 1 IMPORTS 9 -1 5/8 -15.29 SHPGY SHIRE PHARMACEUTICALS ADS 43 22/32 -7 26/32 -15.15 FREE MANAGED FUTURES & IRA RETIREMENT KIT http://www.ino.com/specials/icm/ _____________________________________________________________________ T H A N K Y O U _____________________________________________________________________ Thank you for subscribing to the Extreme Markets Daily Digest from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ). 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