Message-ID: <8051946.1075845229971.JavaMail.evans@thyme> Date: Fri, 8 Jun 2001 14:34:28 -0700 (PDT) From: evening@ino.com To: alewis@enron.com Subject: Andrew, Friday NAS -48.90 DOW -113.74 CRB +2.04 USD +0.22 S&P -12.00 Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-From: "INO.com" @ENRON X-To: Andrew Lewis X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \Lewis, Andrew H.\Lewis, Andrew H.\Inbox X-Origin: LEWIS-A X-FileName: Lewis, Andrew H..pst F R I D A Y E X T R E M E M A R K E T S A complimentary service from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ) Friday: The CRB Index is up 2.04 points to 211.17. The US Dollar Index moved higher by 0.22 points to 119.31. The Dow Industrials trended lower by 113.74 points, at 10977.00, while the S&P 500 trended lower by 12.00 points, last seen at 1264.96. The Nasdaq Composite fell 48.90 points to 2215.10. !!! 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Order Toll Free 800-538-7424 - 410-867-7424 All claims on third-party products are made by the publisher and not by INO.com. All Products Guaranteed. _____________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E M A R K E T C O M M E N T A R Y _____________________________________________________________________ The STOCK INDEXES closed lower on Friday as today's halt in trading on the big board due to software problems caused nervous traders and investors to dump stocks ahead of the weekend. This led to the posting of a key reversal down in September S&P's and a lower close in the Nasdaq. Additional weakness in both markets on Monday would increase the odds that the corrective bounces off the late-May lows might have run their course for the time being. The Dow closed lower on Friday due in part to today's software glitch, which halted trading on the big board for the first time since 1998. Nervous traders dumped stocks due to uncertainties over the half in trading as the decline off Tuesday's high continues. Momentum indicators have turned bearish with this week's setback signaling that additional weakness is possible. Closes below last week's low crossing at 10,835.40 would renew the Dow's decline off May's high and set the stage for a test of May's low crossing at 10,673.20 later this month. INTEREST RATES September bonds closed lower on Friday thereby confirming Thursday's key reversal down. Today's decline turned a number of momentum indicators neutral to bearish hinting that the corrective bounce off the late-May low might have come to an end with Thursday's high. Additional weakness on Monday could lead to an eventual test of broken trendline resistance drawn across this spring's highs. The CRB INDEX posted a key reversal up on Friday erasing all of this week's losses in the process. Strength in oilseeds, hogs, bellies, some precious metals, foods, fiber and crude oil underpinned today's rally. Today's high-range close leaves the door open for a steady to higher opening on Monday as closes above 211.75 would renew the rebound off the late-May low crossing at 208.43. Momentum indicators are oversold and are turning neutral warning bears to use caution, as additional short covering is possible during June. ENERGY MARKETS closed higher on Friday due to short covering as they consolidated some of this week's losses ahead of the weekend. Gains were limited as worries over refinery snags and crude oil offloading affected by stormy weather in the U.S. Gulf dissipated. July crude oil rebounded on Friday erasing all of this week's losses to post a positive close for the week. Momentum indicators are oversold and turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low was posted with Wednesday's spike of this year's uptrend line. It will take closes above 29.05 to temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. July heating oil posted an inside day with a higher close on Friday due to short covering ahead of the weekend. Closes above this week's high at 78.40 would confirm that Wednesday's low marked a double bottom, which coincides with the 38% retracement level of the December/May rally crossing at 75.66. July unleaded gas closed slightly higher on Friday as it extended Thursday's short covering bounce following this week's trendline breakout. Session lows tested the 50% retracement level crossing at 88.93. This week's trendline breakout has opened the door for additional weakness during June. If the decline resumes, the 62% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 85.62 is July's next target. The daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) remains in a bearish mode signaling that additional weakness is possible. July Henry Hub natural gas posted a key reversal up on Friday due to light short covering ahead of the weekend. Forecasts calling for a warm-up across the Midwest next week and continued heat in the South are expected to raise demand for natural gas, which triggered today's rally. Closes above 4.179 or below 3.67 are needed to clear up near-term direction in the market. CURRENCIES The September Dollar closed slightly higher on Friday as it continues to grind sideways to higher this spring. The daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) is bullish signaling that additional strength is possible as the door remains open for a test of weekly resistance crossing at 121.50 later this month. It would take closes below May's uptrend line crossing near 118.62, which coincides with gap support to signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. The September Swiss Franc closed slightly higher on Friday due to light short covering ahead of the weekend. September continues to consolidate above the contract lows but remains poised to renew this spring's decline possibly next week. Wednesday's key reversal down is still a warning to traders that the underlying tone of the market remains weak. The daily ADX is still in a bearish trend mode signaling that additional weakness is possible. The September Canadian Dollar extended this week's rally as it spiked above the 62% retracement level of this winter's decline crossing at .6573. If this resistance level is clear, gap resistance beginning at .6600 is September's next upside target. Closes below broken resistance crossing at .6541 would increase the odds that a short-term top has likely been posted. Momentum indicators are bullish but overbought warning bulls to use caution as a short-term top might be near. The September Japanese Yen renewed this week's decline with a lower close on Friday. The setback from last week's high has returned September to this spring's trading range. Momentum indicators have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices during the first half of June are possible. If the decline continues, gap support crossing at .8272 is September's next target. PRECIOUS METALS August gold vaulted sharply higher on Friday due to short covering. Trading volume was thin, which helped exaggerate today's gains. Nevertheless, a short-term bottom has been confirmed with the recent consolidation around the 75% retracement level of this spring's rally crossing at 267.20. Today's rally turned short-term momentum indicators bullish signaling that additional gains into mid-June are possible. A setback is likely on Monday as today's gains were overdone. July silver also closed higher on Friday as it posted a key reversal up. Session lows tested trading range support crossing at 4.31 cents. Stochastics and RSI are bearish but oversold hinting that a short-term bottom may have been posted with today's low. Additional gains on Monday are needed to help confirm today's bullish reversal pattern. Closes below 4.31 would open the door for a possible test of weekly support crossing at 4.15 later this month. July copper plunged to new contract lows and below weekly support crossing at 74.10 as it renewed this spring's decline. Weekly support crossing at 72.85 is July's next target. Stochastics and RSI are bearish signaling that additional weakness near-term is possible. Today's sell off was triggered by fund liquidation due to concerns over the global economy. GRAINS July corn closed lower on following Thursday's poor close and weekend weather forecast for the Midwest, which should allow for a warm up that should spur improved crop development next week. Losses were limited due to dry weather concerns in China and expectations that next Monday's crop conditions report will come in steady to slightly below this week's levels. Momentum indicators remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices into mid-June are possible. Closes above minor resistance at $2.00 are needed to set the stage for a possible test of May's high at 2.11 1/2 later this month. July wheat closed fractionally lower on Friday as it consolidated some of its late-week gains. Losses were limited due to reports of heavy rains across parts of the hard red winter wheat belt overnight, which raised concerns about further crop losses. Gains this week remains limited due to sluggish world wheat demand and U.S. winter wheat harvest, which has moved into southern Oklahoma. Closes above 2.72 or below 2.58 1/2 is needed to clear up near-term direction in the market. Stochastics are giving a divergent buy signal hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible next week. SOYBEAN COMPLEX July soybeans posted its highest close since March 13th as it extends its trading range breakout. The stage is set for a test of March's high crossing at 4.77 1/2. Continued strength in the cash markets along with strong foreign and domestic demand continues to underpin the late-spring rally. Commodity funds were active buyers across the complex buying about 1,000 contracts of soybeans. Momentum indicators remain bullish signaling that additional gains are possible. July soybean meal closed sharply higher on Friday and above the 62% retracement level crossing at 169.40 to keep this spring's uptrend alive. Today's breakout above fib resistance has opened the door for a possible test of the 75% retracement level of this winter's decline crossing at 175.40 later this month. Strong foreign and domestic demand along with a tight cash market continues to underpin meal's rally. The daily ADX has resumed its bullish trend mode signaling that additional strength is possible. LIVESTOCK August hogs closed sharply higher on Friday falling just short of the contract high at 65.95. Fund related buying along with local short covering triggered today's rally due to tight supplies and ideas of firming cash bids and higher cut-out values. Additional support came from the Goldman roll as they continue to buy the August contract. This week's rally has turned weekly momentum indicators bullish signaling that additional gains are possible. I would not be surprised to see a brief period of consolidation around 65.95 next week. August cattle gave us the short covering bounce ahead of the weekend that I was looking for as it consolidated some of this week's losses. While additional short covering is possible on Monday, momentum indicators have turned bearish warning traders that last week's high likely marked a broad double top with January's high. Expectations for seasonal weakness during June should continue to put pressure on August cattle next week. FOOD & FIBER July coffee closed slightly higher on Friday due to short covering ahead of the weekend. July's ability to hold above the late-May low of 57.10 leaves the door open for a short covering bounce next week should weather forecasts for Brazil's coffee growing region turn bullish. Momentum indicators are oversold hinting that a short-term low is in place or near. Closes above 60.80 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. July cocoa posted an upside reversal with a higher close on Friday due to short covering ahead of the weekend. July's inability to sustain Thursday's move to new lows hints that a short-term low might be in place. Stochastics and RSI are oversold warning traders not to press the short side of the market at this time. July sugar closed higher on Friday erasing the losses of the past two trading sessions. While today's bounce was expected, it does bring into question whether or not the rebound off last week's double bottom has ended or if there is one more leg up in the correction before the larger-degree decline off May's high resumes. Momentum indicators are bearish but nearing their respective oversold zones warning bears to use caution and not to press the short side of the market at this time. July cotton closed out the week on a high note as it continues to rebound off the late-May lows. However, floor sources indicate that there has been little fundamental news to support this month's short covering rally, which leaves the market vulnerable to a resumption of this year's decline later this month. Stochastics and RSI have turned bullish signaling that additional short covering into mid-June is possible. If the rebound continues, trendline resistance crossing near 43.25 is the next target. Daily Extreme Commentary is brought to you by GLOBALcharts, INO.com's end-of-day charting software for Futures, Futures Options and Optionable Stocks. http://www.globalcharts.com Search the INO Store - http://store.ino.com/ _____________________________________________________________________ T O P N E W S _____________________________________________________________________ STOCKS Japan Stocks Review: Nikkei +1.2% on Nasdaq rally, Intel news http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25673 Add2: US Equities Review: Lower; Volume light after NYSE glitch http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25671 UK Stocks Review: Little excitement shown after general election http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25679 FOREX US FX Review: Sterling tanks as Labour Party sweeps UK elections http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25675 Asia FX Review: GBP mixed after Labour win, USD/JPY steady http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25672 Europe FX Review: Labour landslide sends cable even lower http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25674 CREDIT US Credit Review: Slight losses after attempted rally fails http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25670 Europe Credit Review: UK Labour win causes long-end convergence http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25676 Japan Credit Review: June down on last-minute position squaring http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25678 COMMODITIES US Futures Summary: Energy, gold, soy up; copper at 2-year low http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25677 EXCHANGES CBOE Explains Friday Morning Trading Halt http://news.ino.com/press/?release=24538 Eight New Institutional Investors In Nasdaq Europe http://news.ino.com/press/?release=24537 ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E F U T U R E S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/futures/ WINNERS NGQ1 Henry Hub Natural Gas Aug 2001 4.018 0.158 +4.08 CCN1 Cocoa Jul 2001 937 33 +3.65 XKZ1 Gold Dec 2001 276.4 8.7 +3.23 GCV1 Gold Oct 2001 275.5 7.7 +2.87 ZM1 U.S. Treasury 6% Bond Jun 2001 103 184/256 2 26/32 +2.79 KIQ1 Kilo Gold Aug 2001 274 7 +2.62 PBQ1 Frozen Pork Bellies Aug 2001 81.200 1.925 +2.43 CLN1 Light Sweet Crude Oil Jul 2001 28.33 0.65 +2.34 LHZ1 Lean Hogs Dec 2001 52.675 1.050 +2.03 CTN1 Cotton Jul 2001 42.71 0.76 +1.81 LOSERS DAV1 BFP Milk Oct 2001 13.70 -0.76 -5.26 RM1 Russell 1000 Index Jun 2001 669.00 -32.95 -4.88 NDZ1 NASDAQ 100 Index Dec 2001 1944.50 -59.00 -2.95 BDU1 Oriented Strand Board Sep 2001 215.00 -5.80 -2.69 HGM1 Copper Jun 2001 0.7275 -0.0195 -2.61 RRX1 Rough Rice Nov 2001 5.500 -0.080 -1.43 MDM1 S&P Midcap 400 Jun 2001 530.85 -7.55 -1.40 SPH2 S&P 500 Mar 2002 1296.10 -16.10 -1.23 PNN1 Propane Jul 2001 0.4550 -0.0050 -1.09 RLM1 Russell 2000 Index Jun 2001 510.80 -5.55 -1.08 ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E S T O C K S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/stocks/ WINNERS PRDS PREDICTIVE SYSTEMS 5.21 1.27 +30.98 WGAT WORLDGATE COMMUNIC'A' 5.32 1.05 +25.42 IREP INTEREP NATL RADIO SALES 'A' 5.14 0.97 +23.37 VRTY VERITY INC 23.39 4.06 +21.03 LBRT LIBERATE TECHNOLOGIES 9.53 1.56 +19.55 GNSL GENOMIC SOLUTIONS INC COM STK 5.40 0.86 +19.07 FSM FOODARAMA SUPERMKTS 29.25 4.45 +17.94 VGIN VISIBLE GENETICS 18.98 2.76 +16.88 PCIS PRECIS SMART CARD SYS INC 5.25 0.75 +16.67 GAIA GAIAM INC CL A 14.11 2.07 +16.67 LOSERS ANTV ANTENNA TV ADS 8.25 -2.40 -21.90 ELY CALLAWAY GOLF CO (DEL) 15.03 -3.46 -18.74 JNPR JUNIPER NETWORKS 38.02 -8.57 -18.38 TXCC TRANSWITCH CORP 12.40 -2.50 -16.82 ANAD ANADIGICS INC 19.48 -3.30 -14.57 IMMR IMMERSION CORP 5.47 -0.78 -12.83 EXDS EXODUS COMMUNICATIONS 6.33 -0.89 -12.29 MTSC MTS SYSTEMS 11.20 -1.55 -12.22 GISX GLOBAL IMAGING SYS 9.05 -1.19 -11.79 LVLT LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS 9.29 -1.18 -11.28 FREE MANAGED FUTURES & IRA RETIREMENT KIT http://www.ino.com/specials/icm/ $$$$ Foreign Exchange Traders! INO.com now has $$$$ real-time cross rates, FREE online at: $$$$ http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/forex-cross/ _____________________________________________________________________ T H A N K Y O U _____________________________________________________________________ Thank you for subscribing to the Extreme Markets Daily Digest from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ). If you want to subscribe to our other email services, or would like to modify your profile please visit http://www.ino.com/email/. To subscribe a friend, visit: http://www.ino.com/email/ To unsubscribe, visit: http://www.ino.com/email/remove/?email=alewis@enron.com&list=evening -- Copyright 1998-2001 INO.com. All Rights Reserved.