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Date: Tue, 5 Dec 2000 06:13:00 -0800 (PST)
From: editorconsensus@aol.com
To: editorconsensus@aol.com
Subject: WHY THE U.S. DOLLAR IS VULNERABLE TO A TEMPORARY SETBACK by Merrill
Lynch & Co.
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CONSENSUS Market Advisory Newsletter
Each Tuesday the CONSENSUS Newsletter will feature a leading selection from
225 +/- weekly articles from CONSENSUS National Futures and Financial Weekly
appearing online at
http://www.consensus-inc.com/ or in print.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS:
1. Market commentary from current issue of CONSENSUS National Futures and
Financial Weekly.
2. Featured commodity of the CONSENSUS Index of Bullish Market Opinion.
3. Partial Outline of leading articles in current issue of CONSENSUS.
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FEATURED SELECTION:
WHY THE U.S. DOLLAR IS VULNERABLE TO A TEMPORARY SETBACK by Clive Walcott,
Merrill Lynch & Co. Global Securities Research & Economics Group
(November 30, 2000) We are perhaps the biggest U.S. Dollar bulls around and
understand perfectly why the trade-weighted U.S. Dollar remains at a 14-year
high. As the most flexible, efficient and productive economy, the U.S. was
able to average a stunning 4.6% year-over-year growth over the last fifteen
quarters, while Euroland GDP growth averaged a more modest 2.6% rate. The
Japanese economy contracted an average of 0.1% during the same period...
Read the complete article at
http://www.consensus-inc.com/newsletter/feature.htm
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CONSENSUS Index of Bullish Market Opinion
Contrary opinion index of market advisors
75% + overbought
25% - oversold
FEATURED MARKET: ORANGE JUICE: 84%
For more information on all of the CONSENSUS Index of Bullish Market Opinion
percentages please go to our sample online issue at
http://www.consensus-inc.com/01999si/
Consensus - National Futures and
Financial Investment Newspaper
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please call 900-328-1131 for only $2.99 per minute, updated each Tuesday by
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To view TOTAL outline of current issue, visit our website http://www.consensus-inc.com "Issue
Preview"
PARTIAL OUTLINE OF FEATURED ARTICLES IN CURRENT ISSUE OF CONSENSUS FUTURES
AND FINANCIAL WEEKLY:
APICS BUSINESS OUTLOOK INDEX by The Educational Society For Resource
Management
(November 30, 2000) The APICS Business Outlook Index rose to 54.9 in
November, up from 53.5 in October and 49.3 in September. The current
component advanced to 54.1 from 51.7, while the future component edged up to
55.7 from 55.4..
GLOBAL FX STRATEGY by Deutsche Bank AG Foreign Exchange Research Department
The U.S. Dollar is the only major industrial currency that has generated a
year-to-date positive return in U.S. Dollar terms this year (see Figure 1).
Our 2000 FX Scorecard of yield adjusted currency returns for the
January-November 2000 period reveals that the Canadian Dollar is the
industrial world's second best performing currency with a return of -0.7% in
U.S. Dollar terms, while the yen came in third place with a return of -6.7%.
The Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar are the world's worst performing
currencies so far this year with returns of -15.8% and -18.2%, respectively,
in U.S. Dollar terms...
GANN ANGLES by Phyllis Kahn
(December, 2000) The big question that I can't answer this early is: will the
anniversary date of this year's Dow high on January 14th be a high or low?
The high was followed by a major low in March, both time periods, i.e.,
January and March, are very important as 2001 unfolds, as they are key
"seasonals" for major turning points...
A RECESSION IS ON THE WAY by Peter Dag & Associates, Inc.
What is the likely direction of the financial markets? In order to answer
this question it is useful to recognize that there are 6 phases in a complete
financial cycle. Each phase is characterized by the position of various
indicators as follows...
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY AND PRODUCTIVITY by Federal Reserve Bank of San
Francisco
(November 10, 2000) Productivity growth in the U.S. has picked up noticeably
in recent years. From 1996 to 1999, average labor productivity, or ALP, in
the private, nonfarm U.S. economy grew at a 2.8% annual rate, more than twice
the rate that prevailed between 1980 and 1995. Many observers have linked
this acceleration in productivity to the explosive growth of computers and
information technology (IT)...
MONETARY TRENDS by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
(December 2000) Earlier this year, the United States introduced its eighth
dollar coin. The new dollar coin is gold in color and bears the image of
Sacagawea--the only woman on the Lewis and Clark expedition. Proponents of
the dollar coin point out that the widespread use of dollar coins would
result in considerable savings to the government...
NATIONAL ECONOMIC TRENDS by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
(November 2000) Economic growth in the United States has averaged about 4.5
percent per year since 1996. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the
budget and macroeconomic analysis agency of the U.S. Congress, has raised its
estimate of the growth rate of potential GDP for the period 1994-2000 (see
chart)...
CBO's Growth Outlook
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Thank you for reading the CONSENSUS Market Advisory Newsletter. In the future
we plan to include special offers, contests and other features. The next
issue of our newsletter will be e-mailed December 12.
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