Wizards of Odds Discussion of blackjack odds. May give you some insight
into the problem in hw1.
More Tattoo Stuff
A tattoo parlor moved into an old movie theatre and kept the marquee.
Last Wednesday's Questions
-
Question 1.
You are given a choice: (a) get $900 for certain, or
(b) 90% chance to win $1,000 and 10% chance for nothing.
What do you choose? [a. 88%. b. 13%]
- Question 2.
You are given a choice: (a) lose $900 for certain, or
(b) 90% chance to lose $1,000 and 10% chance of losing nothing.
What do you choose? [a. 23%. b. 77%]
- Question 3. Linda is thirty-one years old, single,
outspoken, and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student,
she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social
justice, and also participated in anti-nuclear demonstrations...The
respondents are asked to rank in order of likelihood various
scenarios: Linda is (1) an elementary school teacher, (2) active in
the feminist movement, (3) a bank teller, (4) an insurance
salesperson, or (5) a bank teller also active in the feminist
movement. [bank teller: 35%. feminist bank teller: 65%]
- Question 4.
An individual has been described by a neighbor as follows: “Steve is
very shy and withdrawn, invariably helpful but with very little
interest in people or in the world of reality. A meek and tidy soul,
he has a need for order and structure, and a passion for detail.” Is
Steve more likely to be a librarian or a farmer? [librarian: 72%. Farmer: 28%]
- Question 5.
Participants were asked to choose between two treatments for 600
people affected by a deadly disease. Treatment A was predicted to
result in 400 deaths, whereas treatment B had a 33% chance that no one
would die but a 66% chance that everyone would die. This choice was
then presented to participants either with positive framing, i.e. how
many people would live, or with negative framing, i.e. how many people
would die.
Choice one: A. Either saves 200 lives, or B. a 33% chance of saving all 600
people, 66% possibility of saving no one. [A: 54%. B: 46%]
Choice two: A. 400 people will die or B: a 33% chance that no
people will die, and 66% probability that all 600 will die.
[A: 29%. B: 71%]
- Question 6.
Write down the last 2 digits of your Social Security number. Now
consider whether you would pay this number of dollars for items whose
value you do not know, such as wine, chocolate and computer
equipment. Finally, how much are you willing to pay? (Enter two numbers)
[various]
Artificial Intelligence: The Turing Test
See Computing Machinery and Intelligence A.M. Turing, 1950.
aka, the imitation game.
See
ELIZA--A Computer Program For the Study of
Natural Language Communication Between Man
and Machine Joseph Weizenbaum, 1966.
In emacs, see Meta-x doctor
ELIZA and the Turing Test at BBN
Yale undergraduates in 1970's with Jim Meehan (of Talespin).
AI and Intentionality: The Chinese Room
See Consciousness
in Artificial Intelligence John Searle, talk at Google. See 9 minutes in
for discussion of cognitive science and Sloan talks at Yale.
See Minds,
brains, and programs John R. Searle, The Behavioral and Brain
Sciences (1980).
The Yale AI Project: Cognitive Modelling
See The Yale Artificial Intelligence Project: A Brief History
Stephen Slade, AI Magazine, 1987.
See Conceptual Dependency and Its Descendants
Steven Lytinen, 1992.
- Conceptual Dependency (CD) (slides)
- MARGIE: parse English into CD, infer other concepts, generate
natural languge (English and German, later Chinese)
- Task Orientation
- Psychological process model
- Canonical representation of knowledge
- Translation, synonomy, paraphrase
- Inference
- Ambiguity
- Scripts, plans, goals and understanding (the book Searle read)
- Scripts: SAM, FRUMP
- Plans: PAM, TALESPIN
One day Joe Bear was hungry. He asked his friend Irving Bird where
some honey was. Irving told him there was a beehive in the oak
tree. Joe threatened to hit Irving if he didn’t tell him where some
honey was.
One day Joe Bear was hungry. He asked his friend Irving Bird where
some honey was. Irving told him there was a beehive in the oak
tree. Joe walked to the oak tree. He ate the beehive.
- Learning, memory, and explantion
- Memory Organization Packets (MOPS)
- Bower, Black, and Turner
- CYRUS
- IPP
- Case-based systems (later topic)
The Realm of Decisions