Subject: RE: coal and gas calculations
From: [email-masked]
To: [email-masked]
Cc: [email-masked]
Date: Thu, 5 Jul 2001 12:56:41 -0700 (PDT)

As for Fuel Oil, it doesn't seem to be working to hold the switching demand like we thought it would.  Prices are coming off but with Natty not moving much in the past few days it has made little effect.  On Mon seeing FP&L selling almost 500,000 bbls of NYh 1% in Aug and Sep.  Mirant has been out the whole week buying and the utilities are also long Cal 02, Cal 03 but have yet to dump it.  Seeing utilities switch in the NYC region, even though prices are slowly coming off.  Woudl expect if you get heat to see some utilities use their storage and burn some fuel but unless Natty goes back up to 4 ish I think we may be off the mrkt for a little bit here.  Watchign for signs that may come back on after summer.  Additional issue being that demand as a whole is very weak, so even w/o Natty at such low levels, we would be just a weak.  As of tonight:

NYH Jul 19.00/bbl = 3.025 (w/o taxes and transport, right off the barge)

 -----Original Message-----
From: 	Fraser, Jennifer  
Sent:	Thursday, July 05, 2001 2:37 PM
To:	Arnold, John
Cc:	Mulholland, Sarah
Subject:	coal and gas calculations

coal (EAST
45$/t + 10$ freight = 55$
12,000btu/lb
therefore 55/(12*2)= 2.29/ MMBTU

heat  rate 10
therfore 22.90/MWH

nagural gas (NYMEX)
3.14

most efficient new gen heat rate 7.0

therefore 21.98/mwh

all back of the envelope--but when we get heat will gens increase coal (push limits)--or will gas become more of the baseload