Message-ID: <31541193.1075855871160.JavaMail.evans@thyme>
Date: Fri, 25 Aug 2000 06:37:00 -0700 (PDT)
From: sheri.thomas@enron.com
To: sally.beck@enron.com
Subject: Trend Analysis for Select Commodity Groups
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fyi - we are finally getting to a point where we can spend some time looking 
at the numbers to determine what some of the trends are.  We will be sending 
this to Louise/Dave to highlight some of those that may require commercial 
intervention.
Sheri
---------------------- Forwarded by Sheri Thomas/HOU/ECT on 08/25/2000 01:34 
PM ---------------------------


Torrey Moorer
08/24/2000 04:47 PM
To: Sheri Thomas
cc:  
Subject: Trend Analysis for Select Commodity Groups

Attached is a trend analysis on the four primary commodity groups which have 
either been demonstrating, or have been thought to be demonsrating, a decline 
in EOL transactions as a percentage of total trading activity. The graphs for 
each group represent a line plot of EOL's weekly percentage of total trading 
activity by deal count and volume over the last three months. The attachment 
also contains source data on the second and third pages, which gives the 
absolute numbers represented by the percentages shown on the graphs. These 
sheets contain several additional commodity groups which have demonstrated a 
decreasing or erratic EOL trend, but were not graphed because they averaged 
less than 10-15 total transactions (both EOL and non-EOL) per week. 

A few notes on the four graphed commodity groups:

AUSTRIAN POWER -  The overall EOL trend as a percentage of transactions in 
Austrian Power has been upward over the last three months, despite the sharp, 
temporary decrease which took place at the end of July as a result of the 
head Austrian Power Trader and Stack Manager going on holiday. Since his 
return, the percentage has picked back up and as of 8/22 about 30% of 
Austrian Power trades were once again being done through EOL. There is cause 
for concern here, however, in the fact that the absence of one trader 
effectively shut off EOL trading in this commodity group.


LPG - The LPG products have followed a somewhat erratic path since inception, 
with EOL transactions typically accounting for between 20 and 30 percent of 
total LPG trading activity. This overall trend remains intact and as of 8/22, 
EOL accounted for 26% of LPG trades.

Crude & Products - This commodity group has been demonstrating a steady 
decline in EOL trading activity over the last three months. While EOL trades 
accounted for approximately 20% of all crude and products activity in May, 
this percentage has dropped off to just over 10% as of August 22nd. This 
trend is particularly disturbing because of its consistancy, as well as the 
relatively large data pool on which it is based.


UK Power - Although the absolute number of trades in UK Power dropped off 
significantly at the end of July, EOL's percentage of UK Power transactions 
has remained fairly stable. EOL's percentage of UK Power trades "spiked" 
briefly during the second week of June, but outside of this the percentage of 
UK Power trading represented by EOL transactions has fluctuated between 20 
and 40 percent. On trade date 8-22, EOL transactions accounted for just over 
50% of all transactions done in UK Power.