Message-ID: <19739702.1075853090412.JavaMail.evans@thyme> Date: Thu, 25 Oct 2001 02:49:27 -0700 (PDT) From: bryant@cheatsheets.net To: cheatsheets@yahoogroups.com Subject: [Footballguys] Update # 137 10-25 Passing Game Matchups Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-From: Joe Bryant <bryant@cheatsheets.net> X-To: Cheatsheets post to list <cheatsheets@yahoogroups.com> X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \MCUILLA (Non-Privileged)\Cuilla, Martin\Deleted Items X-Origin: Cuilla-M X-FileName: MCUILLA (Non-Privileged).pst Hi Folks, Here's how I see the Passing Game Matchups this week. PLEASE NOTE: See the cheatsheet online www.footballguys.com for exactly where I rank players and to determine who to start. I always receive emails asking me how I can have a guy ranked highly on the cheatsheet but listed under a matchup that favors the Defense. Just because one matchup may be more favorable than another, that doesn't necessarily mean I'd start the player with the best matchup. Peyton Manning may have a horrible matchup one week but unless you're sitting on Kurt Warner or Daunte Culpepper, Manning's your guy no matter who he's lining up against. The matchup info is meant to be just one more tool in your box when it comes to deciding between players. Note: I've used the player stats sorted by performance over the last four weeks extensively in developing these write-ups. Stats are provided by Mike Hall's excellent FLM League Management Software. http://www.fflm.com/ for more info. Let's get to it. Joe /**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/ Passing Game Matchups to Avoid and Exploit Locks: These games feature Defenses that should be overmatched against the Offense. Chicago's Passing Game vs San Francisco Defense QB Jim Miller isn't flashy, but he gets it done. Losing WR Marcus Robinson was a huge blow though and they'll be hard pressed to pick up the slack. Rookie David Terrell will see increased time as will Dez White. Marty Booker is the other WR and he should be solid. Of the bunch, Terrell has the most talent but is by far the least experienced. Look for him to grow up in a hurry. San Francisco can definitely be thrown on as shown by their # 26 ranking in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks. They rank # 22 in Fantasy Points Allowed to QBs. The Bears will likely try to flex their new found rushing game muscle but I think it'll come down to how well they can cover the loss of Marcus Robinson. It's a good matchup, I'm just not sure if the Bears can take advantage of it. Denver Passing Game vs New England Defense Brian Griese tries to rally his team against the suddenly dangerous Patriots. New England ranks # 22 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks. That may be just what the Broncos need. Eddie Kennison is playing better and Rod Smith is facing double and triple teams, yet still producing. Ty Law is a solid Cornerback but Otis Smith on the other side is vulnerable. Griese's shoulder is sore but he'll play through it. It looks like it may be an issue all season. Minnesota Passing Game vs Tampa Bay Defense Daunte Culpepper didn't put up the eye popping stats last week but the Vikings won a tough game against the Packers. You could see a similar performance this week in this important game against Tampa Bay. The Bucs rank # 24 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks so they've obviously been thrown on. Randy Moss and Cris Carter are solid plays as is Culpepper. I also like TE Byron Chamberlain to make some noise here. /**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/ Prime Matchups: These games feature Defenses that should have trouble stopping the Offense. Baltimore Passing Game vs Jacksonville Defense Here's all you need to know about the Jaguar Pass Defense: Rob Johnson looked pretty good against them last week and was only sacked 2 times. That says a lot. The Jags rank # 18 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks but they seem to be regressing. Elvis Grbac is listed as Questionable with a rib / chest injury and is no lock to start. Randall Cunningham would go if Grbac can't. After getting everyone's expectations up, WR Travis Taylor disappeared last week having only 1 pass thrown his way. Brandon Stokely had 9 and Qadry Ismail had 10. So it's tough to say how it'll play this week. I really like Taylor, but he sure came up small last week. Shannon Sharpe is a good play like always and rookie TE Todd Heap should hopefully see action this week. Carolina Passing Game vs New York Jets Defense QB Chris Weinke seems to be regressing a bit after a very solid start. His interceptions last week were killers. He faces a Jets team that ranks # 21 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks so he could get back on track. They rank # 20 in Fantasy Points Allowed to QBs. Muhsin Muhammad and Donald Hayes will face solid corners Aaron Glenn and Marcus Coleman. The real damage for Carolina can be done with TE Wesley Walls who's always a factor. Cincinnati Passing Game vs Detroit Defense New Flash - Jon Kitna must be more consistent. For better or worse, the Bengals record seems to mirror his play. Losing WR Chad Johnson hurt as Johnson brought a true deep threat to the table - something the other WRs do not. Darnay Scott and Peter Warrick are limited by Kitna's play and don't seem to be as active as they were earlier. The Lions rank # 27 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks so they can definitely be thrown on. For the year, Detroit ranks # 30 in Fantasy Points Allowed to QBs so maybe there is hope for Kitna this week. Kansas City Passing Game vs Indianapolis Defense QB Trent Green should get a break Thursday night against a Colt defense that hasn't put much pressure on the QB (4 sacks in the last 3 games). They rank # 16 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks. DE Chad Bratzke is Questionable so that should help even more. WR Derrick Alexander is getting back in the groove of things with a 4 reception day for 99 yards and a TD last week. Chris Thomas will likely start but Snoop Minnis will see time too. New England abused Cornerback David Macklin last week and the Chiefs should have similar results. The Colts rank # 28 in Fantasy Points Allowed to WRs. As always, TE Tony Gonzalez will be a huge part of the game New York Giants Passing Game vs Washington Defense The big buzz this week is that Coach Jim Fassell is rumored to be considering not starting WR Amani Toomer. Remember, last year, Toomer was briefly demoted and he responded with a great finish. Even if this happens, I don't expect it to be a big deal as Toomer is clearly the Giants best option at WR. QB Kerry Collins struggled with just 162 yards last week against the Eagles but Philadelphia is on a different level. The Redskins are ranked just # 23 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks and the Giants should get back on track. New York Jets Passing Game vs Carolina Defense The Jet passing game will be without WR Wayne Chrebet this week as he recovers from a concussion. Kevin Swayne will likely get the start in his place and I think you'll see a lot more of Matthew Hatchette too. Testeverde's been ok but not great. This offense is all about Curtis Martin though and I don't see that changing. Although the passing matchup is enticing as the Panthers rank just # 30 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks. The Carolina Linebacking Corps is in shambles so TE Anthony Becht might be a good play. The Panthers rank # 28 in Fantasy Points Allowed to TEs. St. Louis Passing Game vs New Orleans Defense Start your Rams. Yes, New Orleans is solid but each one of these St. Louis players is capable of winning your game for you this week. Kurt Warner, Torry Holt, and Issac Bruce are must starts with Az-Zahir Hakim a likely starter for many teams. Tampa Bay Passing Game vs Minnesota Defense Injuries are taking their toll on the Buccaneer WRs. Both Keyshawn Johnson (hip flexor) and Jacquez Green (groin) are Questionable for this week. That doesn't bode well for them or for QB Brad Johnson. Minnesota ranks # 25 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks so the opportunity is there if they can get healthy. But right now, it's a tough call until you know more. I'd expect both to play but you don't know for sure. If the WRs are limited, that'll obviously drag Brad Johnson's numbers down. /**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/ Even Matchups: These games feature no real advantage either way Detroit Passing Game vs Cincinnati Defense I've never been a Charlie Batch fan but he's making a believer out of me. He blew up against the Titans Sunday with a 338 / 3 TD / 1 Interception day. The Bengal Defense has put up good numbers ranking # 6 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks. On the flip side to that, Rodney Heath and Robert Bean are out, so the secondary could be ripe for Batch this week. Lions WRs Germane Crowell and Herman Moore are gone but Johnnie Morton is ready to go. Larry Foster will be the # 2 WR and don't count him out. Morton can't catch every pass. Morton has been averaging 8 targets per game but that'll surely rise. Detroit just signed WR Bert Emanuel so all their troubles are now over... New England Passing Game vs Denver Defense Count me on the Tom Brady Bandwagon. He's done well against several different defenses both at home and on the road. He plays a very similar game to fellow Michigan grad Brian Griese - He doesn't dazzle you with physicals but he plays a solid, heady game. Don't know for sure, but it wouldn't surprise me if his Dad were a coach. He has that kind of game. Chris Mortensen reported earlier this week that Drew Bledsoe may not be coming back this season because of his injury. Terry Glenn is a question mark for this week. His agent is crying again that mean old Bill Belichick made him hurt his hamstring. I'm so far over that. If he plays, he could produce. Troy Brown will also see a ton of looks and you can't count out Mr. Do Everything, David Patten. Denver ranks # 24 in Fantasy Points Allowed to TEs so I wouldn't be surprised to see Jermaine Wiggins make some noise. New Orleans Passing Game vs St. Louis Defense Like everyone else, I'm a little worried about Aaron Brooks. He ranks just # 17 among QBs in Fantasy Points over the last 3 weeks. Things won't get any easier this week against a vastly improved Ram defense that ranks # 13 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks. The focus of the Saints is (rightly) RB Ricky Williams and Brooks simply isn't being counted on to carry the team. WRs Joe Horn and Willie Jackson are garnering most of the passes with Albert Connell getting a few looks. TE Cam Cleeland is doing his Bubba Franks impression scoring on just about every pass he catches. The Rams rank # 17 in Fantasy Points Allowed to TEs so Cleeland might do some damage. Philadelphia Passing Game vs Oakland Defense Donovan McNabb threw just enough to win Sunday afternoon. He'll likely do the same against an Oakland defense that's ranked # 20 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks. Cornerback Charles Woodson's a shutdown corner and is as good as anyone in the game. WR Todd Pinkston's wrist wasn't supposed to be any big deal but he's showing up on the injury report as Questionable. Coach Andy Reid said he thought he'd be good to for Sunday. If Woodson lines up on James Thrash, Pinkston could produce. San Diego Passing Game vs Buffalo Defense Buffalo at San Diego...Think they'll be any revenge factor brewing here? Just a little I'm guessing. QB Doug Flutie takes his team against a Buffalo Defense that's actually been very solid against the pass ranking # 1 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks. Much of that can be attributed to games against Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, and the Jets. Still though, they're decent defending the pass and will give Flutie some obstacles. Jeff Graham is clearly the most active WR while they're doing what they can to get TE Freddie Jones into the game. San Francisco Passing Game vs Chicago Defense QB Jeff Garcia's picked up where he left off last year. Over the last 3 weeks, he's the # 1 rated QB in the league in Fantasy Points. His 3 rushing TDs lead the team. They'll face a stout defense in Chicago that's better suited for stopping the run than the pass. The Bears rank # 19 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks. MLB Brian Urlacher is very tough on the mid range routes but look for the 49ers to exploit the Chicago Corners, R.W. McQuarters and Walt Harris. No corner matches up well with Terrell Owens and this week won't be any different. J.J. Stokes and Tai Streets will see action as well but make no mistake, this team is about Garcia throwing to Owens. Washington Passing Game vs New York Giants Defense Tony Banks to Rod Gardner. What a great performance by the rookie WR last week. It'll be tougher to repeat as the Giants are much more physical. They rank # 12 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks. Gardner has seen 7+ passes thrown his way each game since week 3. Michael Westbrook's numbers have been falling. Pretty tough matchup for the young Gardner. /**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/ Downside Matchups: These games feature a Defense that could pose trouble for the Offense. Arizona Passing Game vs Dallas Defense The Arizona passing game is all about David Boston. And rightfully so. Cowboy Cornerbacks Mario Edwards and Duane Hawthorne can't matchup with Boston and the Cardinal running game with Michael Pittman will have the safeties creeping forward. On the flip side, Dallas ranks # 5 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks and it's hard to argue with the numbers. Obviously, they're stopping teams somehow. Jake Plummer should have time to throw as the Cowboys have only registered 5 sacks in the last 3 games. Buffalo Passing Game vs San Diego Defense Is there a light at the end of the tunnel for Rob Johnson? He did play much better last week. Before I get too excited, he's got a tough matchup this week with San Diego who plays pretty decent pass defense. Plus, you know the Chargers will be pumped up playing the Bills with all the ties there. The Chargers rank # 14 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks. WR Eric Moulds, TE Jay Reimersma, and FB Larry Centers will see the bulk of the passes from Johnson. In an effort to save Rob Johnson's life, I think you'll continue to see the coaching staff rely heavily on the short passes to Reimersma and Centers. Dallas Passing Game vs Arizona Defense With Anthony Wright's knee troubles, looks like Dallas will start Clint Stoerner or Ryan Leaf. Ouch. Although to be fair, I've always been a guy who felt Leaf still has a chance in this league. Call me crazy, I know. WR Joey Galloway is questionable with a bad foot so that's a negative. If Wright's unable to go, I'd probably shy away from all these guys until you see them perform. Indianapolis Passing Game vs Kansas City Defense If you own any Colt players, you've seen first hand the differences between real and Fantasy Football lately. Marvin Harrison, Peyton Manning and Edgerrin James turned in great Fantasy performances last week - en route to the Colts getting spanked by the Patriots. Go figure. They'll have a pretty tough matchup this week against Kansas City who ranks # 2 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks. Much of that ranking comes from the fact KC is so easy to run on. Corners William Bartee and Eric Warfield will have their hands full with Harrison and Rookie Reggie Wayne. Looks like WR Jerome Pathon will miss another game with a sprained foot. Look for the Colts to take what the Chiefs give them - running room for James. Jacksonville Passing Game vs Baltimore Defense Over the last two weeks, it's become very clear that the way to attack the Ravens defense is to spread the field with multiple WR sets. Look for Jacksonville to do just that and for QB Mark Brunell to possibly focus a bit more on the shorter passing game. WRs Jimmy Smith and Keenan McCardell are both solid players. They'll face a Raven defense that's ranked # 11 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks. They're much more effective in stopping the run than they are the pass. With Stacey Mack rushing the ball, the Jags would just as well throw. TE Kyle Brady might be worth a shot as Baltimore ranks # 26 in Fantasy Points Allowed to TEs. Miami Passing Game vs Seattle Defense Jay Fiedler faces an improving Seattle defense that's ranked # 17 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks. Miami's had a week off to prepare. WRs Oronde Gadsden and our Footballguy favorite Chris Chambers will see most of the passes although Cornerback Shawn Springs is getting back to form after his hamstring injury and will likely limit Gadsden's play. Pittsburgh Passing Game vs Tennessee Defense The Steelers are rolling but don't think Kordell Stewart has too much to do with it. I'd avoid pretty much everyone on this offense outside of Jerome Bettis and Kris Brown. If you really have to reach, WR Plaxico Burress is seeing lots of balls thrown his way and actually has more targets the last two weeks than Hines Ward. Burress should be able to use his size to his advantage in the Red Zone. Injured Cornerback Samari Rolle says he has a 50-50 chance of playing Monday. But bottom line is this team is all about Jerome Bettis and Defense. /**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/ Defensive Slam Dunks: These games feature a very tough Defense posing major problems for the Offense. Oakland Passing Game vs Philadelphia Defense QB Rich Gannon and his Hall of Famers, Jerry Rice and Tim Brown will take on one of the most aggressive pass defenses in the game. Against Oakland's savvy veterans, I'm not certain unlimited blitzing is the best course of action. Brown and Rice are guys who can find the open seam and fortunately, Gannon's a guy who can deliver the ball. The Eagles rank # 3 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks though so something's gotta give. Seattle Passing Game vs Miami Defense In one of the more controversial moves of the season, Coach Mike Holmgren has awarded Matt Hasselbeck his job back. Trent Dilfer goes back to the bench. While he's there, he'll likely see Hasselbeck struggle against a tough Miami Defense. Miami ranks # 8 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks and Cornerbacks Patrick Surtain and Sam Madison are as good as any pair in the game. Tennessee Passing Game vs Pittsburgh Defense Steve McNair looked almost like a real live NFL QB last week. Although he still can't get the ball past his TE as Frank Wycheck rolled for 100 yards. Look for more of the same this week as the Steelers create trouble. Pittsburgh is ranked # 4 in Passing Yards Allowed Per Game over the last four weeks. Their aggressive Linebacker play could create some opportunities for Wycheck and Erron Kinney to find some seams in the middle. As usual, the TEs are the best options here. /**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/**/ Bryant Analytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved 1999-2001 To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: cheatsheets-unsubscribe@egroups.com Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/