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Date: Sun, 30 Sep 2001 19:54:31 -0700 (PDT)
From: enerfaxdaily@enerfax.com
To: tdonoho@enron.com
Subject: [enerfaxdaily] Natural Gas Cash and Futures Continue to Slide lower
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Enerfax Daily
NORTH AMERICA'S FREE POWER AND GAS INFORMATION SOURCE
Monday, October 1, 2001 No. 836
Visit our website at: =20
For Oil Prices & News write enerfaxgold-subscribe@egroups.com
or go to
PHYSICAL NATURAL GAS PRICES =20
Gulf/Eastern Region =20
| Agua Dulce | 1.62 |
| ANR SE | 1.79 |
| Carthage TG | 1.66 |
| Chicago Citygate | 1.83 |
| Columbia Gulf Onshore | 1.75 |
| Dominion South Point | 1.96 |
| Henry Hub | 1.82 |
| Houston Ship Channel | 1.78 |
| Katy Hub | 1.73 |
| NGPL - Midcontinent | 1.69 |
| NGPL STX | 1.65 |
| NGPL TX/OK | 1.72 |
| NNG Demarc. | 1.75 |
| Niagara | 1.86 |
| Sonat Tier 1 | 1.79 |
| TCO IPP Pool | 2.02 |
| Tetco ELa | 1.80 |
| Tetco M-3 | 2.08 |
| Tetco STX | 1.67 |
| TGP Zone 0 | 1.67 |
| TGP Zone 1 500 Leg | 1.81 |
| TGT Zone SL | 1.78 |
| New York Citygate | 2.14 |
| Transco Station 65 | 1.86 |
| Transco Zone 6 (NY) | 2.14 |
| Trunk ELa | 1.75 |
| Western Region =20
| California Border | 1.87 |
| El Paso Permian | 1.62 |
| El Paso San Juan | 1.54 |
| Waha Hub | 1.63 |
| Canadian/Rockies Region
| Nova/Aeco (C$/gig) | 2.00 |
| Dawn Hub/Union | 1.85 |
| Northwest Stanfield | 1.46 |
| Wyoming Pool | 1.44 |
| Opal/Kern River | 1.43 |
| PGT-Malin | 1.60 |
| Sumas | 1.39 |
Flow Date 10/01
---------------------------------------------
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--------------------------------------------
NATURAL GAS FUTURES
Henry Hub=20
12 Month Strip 2.7732 +0.0057 =20
18 Month Strip 2.9236 +0.0138 =20
| Month | High | Low | Close | Change |
| NOV | 2.280 | 2.205 | 2.244 | -0.009 |
| DEC | 2.660 | 2.575 | 2.622 | -0.002 |
| JAN | 2.865 | 2.800 | 2.832 | +0.006 |
| FEB | 2.865 | 2.800 | 2.832 | +0.006 |
| MAR | 2.830 | 2.760 | 2.802 | +0.008 |
| APR | 2.770 | 2.700 | 2.742 | +0.006 |
| MAY | 2.805 | 2.740 | 2.772 | +0.011 |
| JUN | 2.850 | 2.790 | 2.822 | +0.009 |
| JUL | 2.900 | 2.830 | 2.869 | +0.011 |
| AUG | 2.945 | 2.870 | 2.907 | +0.008 |
| SEP | 2.930 | 2.870 | 2.907 | +0.008 |
| OCT | 2.950 | 2.900 | 2.927 | +0.006 |
-------------------------------------------------------------
Natural Gas Cash and Futures Continue to Slide Lower
Natural gas for November delivery on the NYMEX closed down $0.009 Frida=
y at $2.244 per MMBtu, trading between $2.205-2.28 after closing unchanged =
on Thursday and reaching a new contract low of $2.18 Wednesday. The Decembe=
r contract dipped $0.002 to $2.622 per MMBtu. The NYMEX will continue to tr=
ade in abbreviated session this week. Last week the AGA reported storage in=
ventories rose by 91 Bcf for the prior week, well above the year-ago gain o=
f 67 Bcf and the 5-year average injection of 77 Bcf. Total inventories of 2=
.848 Tcf are 446 Bcf, or 19% above last year, 264 Bcf above the 5-year aver=
age, and now stand at 86% full. The National Weather Service continues to c=
all for below normal temperatures for the Eastern half of the nation and ab=
ove normal in most of the West this week. Anticipated first-of-month cash i=
ndexes for October are $0.70 - $0.90 below September's indexes at the pipel=
ines. Spreads between cash and futures widen considerably with much more in=
cremental demand expected next month as some utilities switch to natural ga=
s from fuel oil and a number of nuclear energy sites go off-line for mainte=
nance. Currently, there is about $0.50 per MMBtu difference between October=
cash and November futures. Natural gas for next day delivery across the US=
and Canada was generally down $0.05 - $0.10 Friday, except out West where =
spot prices traded higher. Natural gas for next day delivery at the Henry h=
ub dropped $0.07 to $1.82 per MMBtu.=20
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POWER FUTURES =20
| Month | COB | Change | PV | Change |
| OCT | 33.00 | +0.00 | 31.50 | +0.00 |
| NOV | 31.50 | +0.00 | 34.00 | +0.00 |
| DEC | 33.50 | +0.00 | 38.00 | +0.00 |
| JAN | 32.50 | +0.00 | 37.50 | +0.00 |
| FEB | 31.50 | +0.00 | 35.00 | +0.00 |
| MAR | 31.00 | +0.00 | 33.00 | +0.00 |
| APR | 32.00 | +0.00 | 33.50 | +0.00 |
| MAY | 36.00 | +0.00 | 33.50 | +0.00 |
| JUN | 42.00 | +0.00 | 33.50 | +0.00 |
| JUL | 52.00 | +0.00 | 44.00 | +0.00 |
| AUG | 57.00 | +0.00 | 44.00 | +0.00 |
| SEP | 44.50 | +0.00 | 44.00 | +0.00 |
| Month | Entergy | Change | Cinergy | Change |
| OCT | 24.15 | +0.00 | 25.85 | +0.00 |
| NOV | 24.20 | +0.00 | 26.10 | +0.00 |
| DEC | 25.90 | +0.00 | 27.50 | +0.00 |
| JAN | 27.50 | +0.00 | 29.50 | +0.00 |
| FEB | 27.50 | +0.00 | 29.50 | +0.00 |
| MAR | 27.25 | +0.00 | 27.75 | +0.00 |
| APR | 27.25 | +0.00 | 27.75 | +0.00 |
| MAY | 29.75 | +0.00 | 31.25 | +0.00 |
| JUN | 39.00 | +0.00 | 41.25 | +0.00 |
| JUL | 50.00 | +0.00 | 54.75 | +0.00 |
| AUG | 50.00 | +0.00 | 54.75 | +0.00 |
| SEP | 26.00 | +0.00 | 28.15 | +0.00 |
-----------------------------------------------------------
POWER FUTURES
| Month | PJM | Change |
| OCT | 29.70 | +0.00 |
| NOV | 28.90 | +0.00 |
| DEC | 32.00 | +0.00 |
| JAN | 36.00 | +0.00 |
| FEB | 36.00 | +0.00 |
| MAR | 32.50 | +0.00 |
| APR | 32.50 | +0.00 |
| MAY | 33.75 | +0.00 |
| JUN | 44.25 | +0.00 |
| JUL | 59.75 | +0.00 |
| AUG | 59.75 | +0.00 |
| SEP | 32.00 | +0.00 |
------------------------------------------------------------
Natural Gas NYMEX Volume
01NOV 13,237
01DEC 4,910
02JAN 2,671
02FEB 1,509=20
02MAR 1,480
02APR 923
02MAY 510
02JUN 525
02JLY 755
02AUG 327
02SEP 153
02OCT 176
02NOV 202
02DEC 328
03JAN 288
03FEB 58
03MAR 94
03APR 9 =20
03MAY 4
03JUN 33
03JLY 3
03AUG 2=20
03SEP 3
03OCT 5
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Commodity Futures Trading Commission
NYMEX Natural Gas Futures=20
Reportable Positions as of 9/25/01=20
Open Interest: 503,937 10,000 MMBtu=20
Nonreportable
Non-Commercial | Commercial | Total | Positions
Long | Short| Spreading| Long | Short | Long | Short | Long | Short
5,320 32,392 22,107 431,834 422,921 459,261 477,420 44,676 26,517
Changes from 09/18/01 Change in Open Interest: 8,140
1,010 -7,196 -2,825 -3,161 8,344 -4,976 -1,677 13,116 9,817
Prcent of Open Interest for Each Category of Traders
1.1 6.4 4.4 85.7 83.9 91.1 94.7 8.9 5.3
---------------------------------------------------------
Natural Gas Options=20
| | Closing | Days | Implied ATM |
| Month | Price | Left | Volatility |
| NOV | 2.244 | 29 | 74.06% |
| DEC | 2.622 | 61 | 65.79% |
-----------------------------------------------------------
Exelon Cuts 3rd Quarter Forecast
Exelon says 3rd quarter profit will be about a 25% less than forecast b=
ecause the company misjudged demand for electricity. Exelon's shares fell 1=
2% Friday. Exelon expects to earn $1.10 - $1.20 per share, instead of $1.57=
forecast by Wall Sreet. Exelon originally said it would earn $1.35 -$1.80.=
Electricity use by manufacturers has slowed along with the economy, and a =
milder-than-expected summer reduced demand.=20
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PHYSICAL POWER PRICES
| | High | Low | Average |
| | $/MWh | $/MWh | $/MWh |
| Cinergy | 22.00 | 18.00 | 18.80 |
| ECAR | 21.10 | 19.55 | 20.10 |
| ERCOT | 17.75 | 17.00 | 17.50 |
| Entergy | 18.00 | 16.70 | 17.25 |
| TVA | 20.70 | 19.95 | 20.30 |
| ComEd | 19.75 | 18.25 | 18.85 |
| Nepool | 37.00 | 36.25 | 36.60 |
| PJM West | 25.00 | 24.25 | 24.75 |
| Main | 20.65 | 18.40 | 19.15 |
| MAPP | 18.50 | 17.05 | 17.80 |
| Palo Verde | 30.75 | 26.75 | 28.85 |
| Mid C | 23.00 | 20.25 | 22.00 |
| COB | 27.25 | 23.00 | 26.15 |
| 4 Corners | 29.95 | 29.50 | 29.75 |
| Mead | 30.95 | 27.75 | 30.10 |
| NP 15 | 28.50 | 25.00 | 26.90 |
| SP 15 | 27.95 | 25.00 | 26.45 |
---------------------------------------------
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FERC Wants to Increase Industry Monitoring
The new chairman of the FERC wants to increase the Commission's ability=
to monitor energy sales in order to prevent abuses rather than just react =
to complaints. The commission has asked Congress to approve over $1.3 milli=
on for the addition of 10 senior level officials to monitor energy sales an=
d actively look for market abuses. The agency currently has 50 people assig=
ned to enforcement. The chairman says that even though the market has been =
moving towards deregulation for 10 years, the commission has not adjusted i=
ts examinations. The FERC is asking Congress to give it more authority to i=
mpose fines of up to $10,000 per violation, per day. Violators could lose t=
he ability to base rates on market prices and be forced to charge only appr=
oved rates. The Electric Power Supply Association says members aren't afrai=
d of additional market monitoring so long as it doesn't cross the line into=
political interventions every time there is a market fluctuation. High pri=
ces don't necessarily mean markets aren't working and can provide signals t=
he market needs more power supply or a demand response.=20
--------------------------------------------------------
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Increase your sales of power generation equipment. Attend Gas Technology
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-------------------------------------------------------
Today's Power Bulletins
* AEP Reports Northeastern Station Near Tulsa Repowering Project Completed;=
Boosted to 475 MW from 160 MW
* Detroit Edison to Shutdown 1,139 MW Fermi 2 Nuclear Power Plant in Michig=
an in Late October for Scheduled Refueling and Maintenance
* Moody's Rates Nevada Power Credit 'Baa2' Calpine Sees Earnings in Line wi=
th Previous Estimates
* Credit Suisse First Boston Cuts 12-Month Share Price Target to $30 from $=
40 for Reliant Resources=20
* Five Indian States Face Possible Blackouts Even as Enron's Power Plant Si=
ts Idle
* Peabody Energy's Seneca Mine Recognized for Exemplary Stewardship and Saf=
ety
* Idaho Power Granted $48.9 Million Rate Increase
* GPU, FirstEnergy Extend Merger Termination Date Until December 31st
* General Dynamics Receives Tubular Solid Oxide Fuel Cell from Acumentrics
* Dominion Plans 1,100 MW, $600 Million Power Station in Person County Indu=
strial Park
-------------------------------------------------------
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Today's Gas Bulletins
* Baker Hughes US Rig Count Drops 18 to 1,168 Last Week; Searching for Oil =
Down 8 to 215, Natural Gas Off 10 to 953; Canada Falls 14 to 304; Gulf of M=
exico Slips 2 to 135
* Gastar Exploration Closes Private Placement
* Deutsche Banc Alex Brown Revises Earnings Estimates for Major Oil Compani=
es to Reflect Cut in Natural Gas Price Expectations
* Indonesia's State Oil Company Pertamina Talking with El Paso on Possible =
LNG Exports to US
* CMS Energy Declares Quarterly Dividend of $0.365 per Share on Common Stoc=
k
* Maritimes & Northeast Names Murphy Brothers of East Moline, IL as Contrac=
tor for Proposed Phase III Expansion
* TransCanada to Redeem Canadian Originated Preferred Securities
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Midwest Utilities Combine into Transmission Entity
Six Midwest power companies have applied with the FERC to form a new e=
ntity to merge their electric transmission systems. The new transmission co=
mpany will be called Translink Transmission. It will be a for-profit compan=
y set up as part of FERC's 1999 order that investor-owned utilities join a =
RTO by the end of this year. The FERC has made RTOs a top priority since th=
e California power crisis. RTOs establish common rules that allow utilitie=
s to smoothly trade bulk power across the borders of their own local transm=
ission systems. Applicants for Translink Transmission consist of IES Utilit=
ies and Iowa and Interstate Power; Iowa's Corn Belt Power Cooperative; MidA=
merican Energy; Nebraska Public Power District; Omaha Public Power District=
; and Xcel Energy. The utilities will participate in Translink through a co=
mbination of divestiture, leases and operating agreements. Translink will =
manage 26,000 miles of transmission lines and about 35,500 MW to about 6.9 =
million utility customers in 14 states. It expects to be in business by the=
end of next year. The new transmission company will also contract with the=
Midwest ISO for RTO services. Separately, a Canada's Manitoba Hydro has j=
oined Midwest ISO. The agreement is the first international extension of a =
US based ISO. Manitoba Hydro has 5,200 MW of mostly hydroelectric power gen=
eration and provides energy to all of Manitoba except central Winnipeg. The=
coordination agreement allows the utility to participate in the ISO withou=
t violating Canadian law, which prevents Manitoba Hydro from signing the Mi=
dwest ISO's transmission owners' agreement. Manitoba and the Midwest ISO ar=
e both part of Mid-Continent Area Power Pool.=20
--------------------------------------------------------
Ziff Energy Group presents the
North American Gas Strategies Conference
November 5 - 7 Calgary=20
The Future of Western Canada's
Gas Supply: Stretched to the Limit?
& e-Solutions: Next Generation Concepts for the E&P Sector
Join us for frank, in-depth discussion on the future of the Western Canada =
Sedimentary Basin. Top Canadian & U.S. gas industry leaders will address ur=
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Day 1: Gas Outlook 2002: Supply, Pipelines, Markets, Price Outlook
Day 2: Western Canadian Gas Supply Featuring speakers such as:
Ed Weber, Chairman, Reliability Assessment, ERC Don Albon, Senior Vice Pre=
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Ken Vollman, Chairman & CEO - National Energy Board
Terry Schmidtke, GM Great Plains Business Unit - PanCanadian=20
Ted Bogle, VP Exploration - Talisman Energy
Ken Sinclair, Chair - Coalbed Methane Association
Graeme Phipps, VP Exploration - Petro-Canada
Nellie Cournoyea, Chair & CEO - Inuvialuit Regional Corporation
Executive Roundtable - 6 CEO's from Canada & US discuss the outlook for the
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--------------------------------------------------------
Dominion Plans New 1,100 MW NC Power Plant=20
Dominion plans to build and operate a combined-cycle $600 million, 1,10=
0 MW natural gas fired power plant in Person County, NC. The facility would=
consist of 4 turbines and would connect with Carolina Power & Light's 230-=
kV transmission lines. The plant plans to receive natural gas from the Gree=
nbrier pipeline being developed by Dominion and Piedmont Gas. Dominion will=
seek regulatory approval and begin engineering, permitting and infrastruct=
ure work this fall. The first project is expected to begin operation in 200=
5.
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California Generators Want Payment Plan=20
Five large power generators have contacted Southern California Edison i=
n an attempt to find out how much, when and if they will be paid for electr=
icity sold to the utility. Reliant, Mirant, Dynegy, Enron and Puget Sound E=
nergy say they have received little assurance that the SCE intends to work =
out a payment plan with its creditors if the California legislature fails t=
o pass a rescue plan. State senators adjourned last month without approving=
a $2.9 billion rescue package. The governor has called special session lat=
er this month to consider a bail-out, however it is unlikely the lawmakers =
will pass the measure in its present form. The current version of the plan =
does not allow SCE to use bonds sold under the measure to pay the generator=
s. Since SCE supported that version of the plan, the generators want to kno=
w how they will be paid. An attorney for the companies says they want a sim=
ple yes or no to whether or not SCE is interested in negotiating a forbeara=
nce agreement. The generators contend that SCE can take steps to ensure tha=
t all creditor classes are treated equally, and payments can be made from e=
xisting funds or from a sale of secured bonds.=20
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Progas Storage Services, Inc
Was recently organized to offer specialized natural gas storage services to=
marketers and end users servicing the upper Midwest and Northeast market r=
egions along the major transmission systems in Indiana, Illinois, Kentucky,=
and Michigan. PGSMI has 10 bcf of potential working capacity which will of=
fer service along TXG, ANR, Midwestern, and is currently evaluating for pur=
chase another 21 bcf of potential working capacity which can be serviced by=
these and other systems in the region. PGSMI also explores for natural gas=
in the Gulf Coast region through a wholly owned subsidiary. Progas intends=
to go public through a route of private industry offerings, and an IPO or =
registration. For more information on services or the company mail to: gast=
orage@aol.com or for AOL mail to gastorage@aol.com ; web site currently under construction at: .
The company's executive and administrative office is located in Abilene, Te=
xas with storage operations in Owensboro, KY and exploration operations in =
Corpus Christi, TX.
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Abilene, TX 79606
Ph 915 698 3699
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--------------------------------------------------------
Pure Text or Lotus & AOL Readers-subscribe by going to:
HTML,Outlook Email, Readers-subscribe by writing
--------------------------------------------------------
FINANCIAL SUMMARY
The TSE 300 gained 169.11 points to 6838.56
The CRB Index decreased 0.69 points to 190.49
The US Dollar advanced 0.22 points to 113.48
The Dow rose 166.14 points to 8847.56
The S&P 500 gained 22.43 points to 1040.90
The Nasdaq was up 38.09 points to 1498.80
November NYMEX Crude Oil rose 0.36 to 23.43
Canadian-US Exchange slipped .0003 to 1.5790
-------------------------------------------------------
Please welcome our advertisers by visiting these websites.
http://risk.sungard.com/energy
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