Message-ID: <25131742.1075852416492.JavaMail.evans@thyme> Date: Fri, 26 Oct 2001 06:26:37 -0700 (PDT) From: andy@apbenergy.com To: newweather@apbenergy.com, weathernews@apbenergy.com Subject: Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-From: Andy Weingarten @ENRON X-To: 'Weather Archive' , 'Weather News Distribution' X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \JGRIFFIT (Non-Privileged)\Griffith, John\Market X-Origin: GRIFFITH-J X-FileName: JGRIFFIT (Non-Privileged).pst Weather Headlines Friday October 26, 2001 ***Cold air in the East will linger through the weekend but will get rapidly scoured out next week. Next trough set to enter the Western U.S.*** There is currently a long and strong fetch of NW winds driving cold air through the Plains and then South and East. Some Lake effect snows are occurring with this as well though much of the Great Lakes moisture is a cold rain. Sprawling high pressure covers almost the rest of the country and the trend in temperature is about to become one of moderation. The surface high in the Plains will shift to the East coast by early next week and the NW winds now will shift to the SW allowing the warm up to commence. It will start in the Plains this weekend and go East of the Mississippi by Monday. My five day temperature departures are still largely below normal, but they should be used with caution in a see-saw pattern such as this. After all some areas(especially in the Plains) may start out 15-20 below normal today and go 10-15 above normal by Day 5 (Tuesday). By the end of the period, the Eastern trough will be out to sea, a new trough will invade the West and Pacific style air will rule coast to coast. That air can be damp along the West coast, but as it sinks over the mountains it quickly warms up and dries out. This pattern is allowing the wet season to get started in the PNW. It appears each successive Pacific storm is getting a little stronger and forming further South. If the trend continues, we could start seeing moisture getting into Northern California next week. I continue to see good agreement with the models in the 6-10 day period. The country should remain bathed in Pacific air well into the first week of November and I believe even beyond. Troughs continue to move into the West and then in a progressive pattern stay fairly weak in their move East. Without any blocking in Canada, it is hard for me to see much likelihood for any arctic air to get entrained. My confidence remains high in a largely above normal temperature forecast. It is a little less optimistic in terms of precipitation. I question how much Gulf of Mexico moisture can be worked back to the North, but some models suggest the Plains could get wet next week. I have not discussed the tropics much this week because there has not been a storm to mention. There still isn't, but the overall pattern we are going into next week can in a climatological sense sometimes crank something up in the Caribbean and push it North towards Florida. My guess is there will not be a named storm as such, but some potential for heavy rain. For the period Friday October 26 through Tuesday October 30, expect the following temperature trends: Average 7 to 9-degrees below normal: Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, Southeast... Average 4 to 6-degrees below normal: Gulf Coast, Northeast, Mississippi Valley Average 1 to 3-degrees below normal: Plains, Pacific NW... Average 1 to 3-degrees above normal: California, Rockies... Average 4 to 6-degrees above normal: Desert SW, Intermountain West... Andy Weingarten... Meteorologist APB Energy / True Quote Weather Desk