Message-ID: <13985330.1075861692369.JavaMail.evans@thyme> Date: Tue, 20 Nov 2001 06:00:34 -0800 (PST) From: andy@apbenergy.com To: newweather@apbenergy.com, weathernews@apbenergy.com Subject: TUESDAY WEATHER HEADLINES Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-From: Andy Weingarten @ENRON X-To: 'Weather Archive' , 'Weather News Distribution' X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \JGRIFFIT (Non-Privileged)\Griffith, John\Market X-Origin: Griffith-J X-FileName: JGRIFFIT (Non-Privileged).pst Weather Headlines Tuesday November 20, 2001 *** Models converging on an increasingly stormy pattern. The question still to be answered is when the arctic air arrives.*** The current cool down in the East is very transitional with warmer air to return by the end of the week. The pattern has clearly changed as the jet stream has been suppressed Southward. In the short (and medium) terms, things should turn stormier, but not necessarily colder. In fact, latest charts indicate a healthy ridge to build late this period over the SE U.S. in response to a trough developing over the Rockies. This opens the Gulf of Mexico up in a moisture sense, but any winter snows look to be confined to the extreme Northern tier of states. Much needed rains may fall from the Plains to the East Coast by the weekend in areas that have been parched this Fall. In terms of temperatures, 5 day averages will not depart significantly from normal the rest of the week though the trend late in the period will be for a warmer East and a cooler West. I have been consistently forecasting colder air (along with most others) in the 6-10 day period for a couple of weeks now. It has been slow in developing and the cool down now in the East would hardly be considered significant unless it is compared to the record warmth of the last couple of weeks. The pattern I foresee going into early December is colder relative to normal in the West and warmer in the East. Specifically a storm track from the SW into the Plains and NE will set up allowing for generous rain (with snow North) to develop. Arctic air is moving to this side of the pole and pooling in NW Canada. Now, a mechanism to drive it SE is needed. One of the tools used that I occasionally refer to is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Most winter forecasts have predicted this as largely negative this season which is a robust signal for cold air in the East. It has been negative the last two weeks though in fairness its reliability as a signal gets much higher in December for cold. I find it interesting to note the signal is expected to go weakly positive next week. Bottom line for the period is I see a continuation of a cold bias with the Western trough and a warm bias in the vicinity of the Eastern ridge. We may also see a significant storm move through the country during the period, but again I look for snow to be confined to the North. For the period Tuesday November 20 through Saturday November 24, expect the following temperature trends: Average 1 to 3-degrees below normal: Gulf Coast, Southeast, Mid-Atlantic? Average 1 to 3-degrees above normal: Ohio and Mississippi Valleys, Great Lakes, Southern Plains, Pacific NW, California? Average 4 to 6-degrees above normal: Desert SW, Rockies, Intermountain West, Central and Northern Plains? Andy Weingarten, Meteorologist APB Energy / True Quote