Message-ID: <26886078.1075853108239.JavaMail.evans@thyme> Date: Wed, 17 Oct 2001 14:46:27 -0700 (PDT) From: evening@ino.com To: mike.grigsby@enron.com Subject: Trader, Wednesday USD +0.40 CRB +0.11 DOW -151.26 NAS -75.73 S&P -20.45 Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-From: INO.com <evening@ino.com> X-To: Grigsby, Mike </O=ENRON/OU=NA/CN=RECIPIENTS/CN=MGRIGSB> X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \MGRIGSB (Non-Privileged)\Deleted Items X-Origin: Grigsby-M X-FileName: MGRIGSB (Non-Privileged).pst W E D N E S D A Y E V E N I N G E X T R E M E M A R K E T S A complimentary service from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ) Wednesday: The CRB Index has gained 0.11 points to 185.35. The US Dollar Index edged higher by 0.40 points to 114.32. The Dow Industrials moved lower 151.26 points, at 9232.97, while the S&P 500 dropped 20.45 points, last seen at 1077.09. 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All Products Guaranteed. _____________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E M A R K E T C O M M E N T A R Y _____________________________________________________________________ LIVESTOCK: December live cattle closed down $0.32 at $67.10 today. The weak U.S. stock market amid the growing anthrax scare pressured futures today. News that an IBP packing plant in Lexington, Nebraska, is closing due to present market conditions also pressured the futures. Prices did open stronger, but could not hold their gains. December lean hogs closed up $0.15 today at $50.37. Short covering from perceived oversold conditions gave a slight lift to futures today, as did a more stable cash market today. Still, the bulls are sickly in this market. Recent heavy hog runs have bulls worried about burdensome near-term pork supplies. GRAINS: December corn futures closed 1 cent higher at $2.07 3/4 today. The market was supported by firming basis levels in the cash market and the rally in wheat. Prices scored an "outside day" up on the daily bar chart today. If there is follow-through buying interest on Thursday, a bullish key reversal will be confirmed. November soybeans closed 3 1/2 cents higher at $4.34 today. The rally in wheat and rumored Chinese soybean demand supported beans today. Prices scored an "outside day" up on the daily bar chart today. If there is follow-through buying on Thursday, a bullish key reversal up will be confirmed. Let's see what the weekly USDA export sales data shows Thursday morning. December Chicago SRW wheat closed up 7 cents at $2.84 3/4 today. It was a big day for the bulls. Prices were boosted by more short covering, as well as hopes for near-term fresh export demand. Prices pushed to a fresh seven-week high today and closed near the session high. SOFTS: March N.Y. sugar closed 1 point higher at 6.63 cents today. Prices today pushed to a fresh two-week high, but then backed off and closed near the session low. The bulls have seen a nice mini run since the lows scored a little over a week ago. December N.Y. coffee closed 85 points higher at 44.75 cents today. Prices gapped higher on the daily bar chart on some short covering after prices set a contract low Tuesday. Bulls should not get too excited about today's gap-higher trade. Let's see what price action does Thursday and Friday. Nearby coffee futures prices this week set a record low. December N.Y. cocoa closed $27 higher today, at $1,066. Prices today showed good follow-through buying strength and a bullish key reversal up was confirmed on the daily bar chart. Bulls are gaining momentum. December cotton closed 6 points higher at 31.53 cents in quiet trading today. I do look for some more short covering in the coming sessions, but make no mistake: bears are in command. For a longer-term perspective, nearby New York cotton futures sunk to a low of 29.50 cents in 1986. November orange juice on Tuesday afternoon closed at 86.10. That's off 1.30 cents from the Monday evening close. Prices are due for some corrective consolidation after the recent big gains. Last week's USDA Florida orange figure was termed bullish. METALS: December COMEX gold futures closed up $1.10 today at $284.00 an ounce. It was another quiet day today. Bulls are trying to stabilize the market after last week's sell off. Bulls need to show more strength this week as bears have gained momentum. December silver futures closed $0.015 higher at $4.37 an ounce today. Prices hit a fresh four-week low Tuesday as bears still have the near-term edge. Silver has also suffered technical damage recently. December N.Y. copper closed 50 points lower at 63.90 cents. Prices today did not show the follow-through buying to confirm a key reversal up. Prices need to push above 66 cents and see a couple closes above that level before the bulls get much confidence. ENERGIES: December crude closed off $0.16 at $22.10 today. Prices dropped to a fresh four-week low today. Bears are gaining momentum. A big bear flag continues to form on the daily chart. If there is a downside breakout from this big bear flag, the measuring implications point to possible losses to well below $20.00 per barrel. December heating oil closed off 53 points, at .6290 today. Prices hit another fresh four-week low today. Bears remain in control as it looks like a big bear flag is forming on the daily bar chart. Measuring implications from this potential bear flag point to much larger losses. December unleaded gasoline closed 99 points lower at .5863 today. Prices scored a fresh yearly low today, as bears gain even more momentum. Expect more volatility in the coming weeks. December natural gas closed $0.0149 lower at $2.703 today. Prices pushed to another fresh five-week high today but then closed near the session low. Bulls have gained just a bit of momentum, but bears have the overall advantage. STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The December Euro currency closed 47 points lower today at .9010. Today's close was the lowest closing price in over a month. Bears are gaining confidence. Prices are presently trading below a five-week-old downtrend line drawn off the September and October highs. The December Japanese yen closed up 6 points at .8283 today. Prices pushed to a fresh two-month low just Tuesday. Bears have control of the yen. A steep four- week-old downtrend line is in place on the daily bar chart. The December Swiss franc closed 19 points lower at .6101 today. While a steep four-week-old downtrend line is in place on the daily bar chart, a longer-term 3.5-month-old uptrend line on the daily bar chart remains intact. The December Canadian dollar closed 25 points lower at .6363 today. Prices again closed near the session low. Bulls need to step up the rest of this week or they will lose the slight momentum they have recently gained. Prices are still in a three-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The December British pound closed 6 points lower at 1.4424. It was another quiet day today. Bears have the slight edge. Technical damage has been inflicted recently. First support is seen at the 1.4344 level. First resistance is now seen at 1.4500. The September U.S. dollar index closed 56 points higher at 114.78 today. Bulls have made progress recently, but need to keep the pressure on the bears. It appears a head-and- shoulders bottom reversal pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. December U.S. T-bonds closed 17/32 higher at 106 23/32. Bulls are having a very good week, so far, and they needed it. Bulls can correctly argue this market was due for some corrective consolidation. The charts are still favoring the bulls. December S&P 500 futures closed off 23.50 at 1076.00. Today, prices scored a bearish "outside day" down on the daily bar chart, and if there is follow-through selling on Thursday, a bearish key reversal down will be confirmed. Still, not much technical damage occurred today. Let's see what happens Thursday and Friday. This index has shown resilience, despite the gloomy U.S. economic conditions and terrorist threats. The growing anthrax scare did spook traders today. Daily Extreme Commentary is brought to you by GLOBALcharts, INO.com's end-of-day charting software for Futures, Futures Options and Optionable Stocks. http://www.globalcharts.com Search the INO Store - http://store.ino.com/ _____________________________________________________________________ I N O N E W S _____________________________________________________________________ Lower Fees Announced For Trading CBOT Mini Futures http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27077 CBOT And MidAm Veterans' Day Schedule http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27076 Chicago's Single-Stock Futures Exchange Appoints General Counsel http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27075 Hong Kong Exchange To Trade 3-Year Exchange Fund Note Futures http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27074 ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E F U T U R E S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/futures/ WINNERS LBN2 Random Length Lumber Jul 2002 265.00 8.90 +3.42 ERY0 FTSE Eurotop 100 Cash 2732.4 67.3 +2.53 WZ1 Wheat Dec 2001 284 3/4 7 +2.52 CCZ1 Cocoa Dec 2001 1066 26 +2.50 XWZ1 Wheat Dec 2001 284 3/4 6 3/4 +2.43 KWZ1 Wheat Dec 2001 295 7 +2.43 XRZ1 Soybean Oil Dec 2001 15.24 0.36 +2.41 BOF2 Soybean Oil Jan 2002 15.45 0.36 +2.39 HGN2 Copper Jul 2002 0.6570 0.0130 +1.97 MWZ1 Hard Red Spring Wheat Dec 2001 313 1/2 6 +1.95 LOSERS NDZ1 NASDAQ 100 Index Dec 2001 1310.00 -103.50 -7.33 NGX1 Henry Hub Natural Gas Nov 2001 2.418 -0.172 -6.64 MDZ1 S&P Midcap 400 Dec 2001 445.50 -14.35 -3.12 RLZ1 Russell 2000 Index Dec 2001 422.50 -13.50 -3.10 RZ1 Russell 1000 Index Dec 2001 565.50 -13.00 -2.25 XOZ1 Oats Dec 2001 188 -4 1/4 -2.23 VGY Value Line Index - Cash Geometric Feb 20 328.56 -7.33 -2.18 MVZ1 Value Line Index. Mini Dec 2001 1080.00 -24.00 -2.17 RRU2 Rough Rice Sep 2002 5.000 -0.110 -2.15 SPZ1 S&P 500 Dec 2001 1076.50 -23.00 -2.09 ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E S T O C K S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/stocks/ WINNERS FILE FILENET CORP 13.3700 3.4400 +34.23 ACAM ACAMBIS PLC ADS 36.3500 8.4900 +29.27 SURE SUREBEAM CORP'A' 11.2500 2.5210 +28.62 PRTH PARTHUS TECH PLC 5.9000 1.0889 +22.64 DTHK DIGITALTHINK INC 9.0000 1.7000 +21.88 INFS INFOCUS CORP 17.1600 3.0700 +21.41 CTAC 1-800 CONTACTS 15.6100 2.7000 +20.77 SCMM SCM MICROSYSTEMS 7.2100 1.0300 +16.30 ALCD ALCIDE CORP 23.7500 3.1490 +14.92 MICC MILLICOM INTL CELLULAR SA 11.5000 1.4200 +14.06 LOSERS TESTC TEST SECURITY 36.0000 -15.2560 -29.70 PXLW PIXELWORKS INC 10.2000 -3.9900 -28.24 RFMD RF MICRO DEVICES 18.4900 -5.9100 -24.20 DCN DANA CORP 11.30 -3.26 -22.39 RMBS RAMBUS INC 9.1000 -2.6100 -22.27 UAL-B UAL CORP 12.25% DEP'B'PFD 18.85 -4.46 -19.87 SEBL SIEBEL SYSTEMS 17.3800 -4.1500 -19.27 UAL-T UAL CP CAP TR I 13.25%'TOPRS' 20.40 -4.80 -19.05 PSFT PEOPLESOFT INC 23.1900 -5.2900 -18.54 CSCC CENTERSPAN COMMUNICATIONS CORP 7.2500 -1.6450 -18.30 *FREE Futures Information Guide http://www.ino.com/specials/wavetools/hype.html _____________________________________________________________________ T H A N K Y O U _____________________________________________________________________ Thank you for subscribing to the Extreme Markets Daily Digest from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ). 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