Message-ID: <25841876.1075855350390.JavaMail.evans@thyme> Date: Tue, 18 Dec 2001 16:19:49 -0800 (PST) From: evening@ino.com To: mike.grigsby@enron.com Subject: Trader, Tuesday DOW +106.42 NAS +17.31 S&P +8.56 USD +0.20 CRB -0.61 Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-From: INO.com <evening@ino.com> X-To: Grigsby, Mike </O=ENRON/OU=NA/CN=RECIPIENTS/CN=MGRIGSB> X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \Michael_Grigsby_Jan2002_1\Grigsby, Mike\Deleted Items X-Origin: Grigsby-M X-FileName: mgrigsb (Non-Privileged).pst T U E S D A Y E V E N I N G E X T R E M E M A R K E T S A complimentary service from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ) Tuesday: The CRB Index is declining 0.61 points to 190.33. The US Dollar Index climbed 0.20 points to 115.15. The Dow Industrials moved higher by 106.42 points, at 9998.39, while the S&P 500 rose 8.56 points, last seen at 1142.92. 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All Products Guaranteed. _____________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E M A R K E T C O M M E N T A R Y _____________________________________________________________________ The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--A reported jump in housing starts data Tuesday set the tone for gains in stock index futures for most of the session. U.S. housing starts rose 8.2% for November to a seasonally-adjusted 1.645 million annual rate. This followed a revised 4.0% fall in October to a 1.521 million annual rate. October starts were previously reported as sliding 1.3% to a 1.552 million annual rate. The readings were much stronger than economists' expectations. That data added to an already positive tone present in equity Markets overnight thanks to encouraging news out of Circuit City and Best Buy. Circuit City reported third-quarter earnings at 10 cents a share. That was 3 cents better than analysts had been expecting. Circuit City stock jumped over a full point on that news before pulling back later in the session. Best Buy posted 37 cent third quarter earnings, beating analysts' expectations by one cent. Chicago Mercantile Exchange stock index futures traders attributed a late morning dip in prices to some independent traders losing confidence that institutional players - such as Merrill Lynch and Goldman Sachs - which had been on the buy side early in the session, would continue to support the market with their orders. The downtick was further fueled when light sell stops were triggered under 1654.00 in the March Nasdaq futures contract. However, the contracts ended just about at the top of their day ranges Tuesday. Analysts said continued thin trade in equity futures contracts likely magnified movement. Resistance for the March S&P futures contract is now seen at the psychological resistance level of 1150.00. Support is seen at Friday's low of 1115.80. Resistance for March Nasdaq is seen at 1674.00, the 50% retracement level from Dec. 6. Support is seen at 1596.00, Friday's low. INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=interest NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The U.S. Treasury market squirreled away Modest Gains Tuesday, in a quiet session that stood in stark contrast with Monday's fireworks. At 3:45 p.m EST, the 10-year Treasury note stood at 99 1/32, up 13/32 to yield 5.13%. The 30-year Treasury gained 14/32 to 97 28/32, yielding 5.52%. The five-year price gained 7/32 to a 4.42% yield, while the two-year price was up 2/32 at a yield of 3.09%. As it was on Monday, the market was all about light flows and a lack of participation ahead of the Christmas holiday and year-end, a condition that traditionally befalls the market this time of year. "I think the only thing in common" between the two trading sessions "is light flows," said Michael Cloherty, market strategist with Credit Suisse First Boston in New York. "That's one of the things that pushed the market so far yesterday - liquidity is pretty poor." In battening down the hatches, many dealers and investors are seeking to protect profits ahead of the year-end. But there's also a sentiment that news on the economy is mixed right now, and that that's limiting the participation of some, market participants said. The CRB INDEX http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes No report today. ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=energy NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Crude oil futures ended steady and most gasoline futures contracts rose modestly Tuesday, while heating oil futures posted moderate gains at the New York Mercantile Exchange. Heating oil futures briefly surged nearly 2 cents amid strength in the US East and Gulf Coast cash markets as refinery selling waned. Upcoming colder weather in the Northeast, the largest heating oil market in the country, may have provided another boost. "We can only guess that it is some reaction to Monday afternoon's National Weather Service short-term outlooks showing below-normal temperatures for the Northeast in both the 6-10 and 8-14 day editions," said Tim Evans, analyst at IFR Pegasus. Gasoline futures traded on middle ground as refiners are seen curbing gasoline production but demand is seen lackluster. HOUSTON (Dow Jones)--The natural gas futures contract eased into the mid-$2.60s a million British thermal units Tuesday, as another day of anticipated winter cold fell off the calendar. "You don't need just cold weather, you need an Ice Age," said Ed Kennedy of Pioneer Futures Inc. in Miami. January settled at $2.657/MMBtu, down 2.9 cents, trading in a 12-cent range from $2.63-$2.75/MMBtu. February fell 4.9 cents to $2.712/MMBtu. Looking ahead, expect that slow, sinking feeling to continue well into January's expiration, traders said. CURRENCIES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=currencies NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The dollar tread water against the euro and edged only slightly higher against the yen Tuesday, after some traders questioned whether the rally in the dollar/yen and euro/yen pairs over recent sessions may have been too much, too soon. Having jumped to a fresh three-year high of Y128.43 during Asian trading, the dollar slipped back as some market participants began to factor in the likelihood that the Bank of Japan won't implement any major new monetary initiatives at its two-day policy meeting, that concludes Wednesday. The euro slid as low as Y114.91 at one point, well off its intraday high of Y115.95. Even so, some analysts do expect some sort of policy change from the BOJ and many market watchers think the dollar is still set to move higher against the yen. PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Precious metals settled mixed Tuesday, with gold futures rallying on fund buying and gathering enough momentum to penetrate the key resistance area around $280 an ounce and silver also flexed its technical muscle. Lack of sellers into the gains helped the yellow metal accelerate upward, breaking through $280 and tripping buy-stops above there, according to Refco Inc. analyst Jim Steel. The March silver contract on Comex also mustered the strength to break above resistance Tuesday, finishing 5.5 cents higher at $4.42 an ounce. No one still has any idea what's driving the rise in silver lease rates, but Steel said he doubted people were borrowing just to sell into the recent strength, as he hadn't seen evidence of selling on the longer end of the curve. GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--Chicago Board of Trade corn and wheat futures settled lower Tuesday mostly on spillover pressure by the soybean market and on a late sell-off by locals and speculators. After a lackluster, dull session corn and wheat futures sank to new session lows about 15 minutes before the closing bell. "It was very slow in here until the last 15-20 minutes," said Victor Lespinasse, a grain trader with A.G. Edwards in Chicago. "Corn and wheat came down in sympathy with beans." SOYBEAN COMPLEX http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--After a two-sided, dull session Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures closed lower Tuesday on a late technical sell-off. January soybean futures tumbled within 3.50 cents of the contract low. "It was a technical break," said one floor trader. Soybeans garnered some strength earlier from large commercial buying and ideas hot/dry weather in Argentina could hurt the quality of the crop there. Floor brokers said ADM bought between 700-900 contracts of January soybeans and Cargill bought 500 contracts. Market watchers said commercials were the best scale down buyers in soybeans and oil. Soy meal futures collapsed late in the session to post solid losses in sympathy with the weak soybean market and on widespread selling by the speculators. Soy oil was the leader to the downside earlier in the session, according to floor brokers. "The sell-off started in the soy products, which led to a general sell-off," said Victor Lespinasse, a grain trader with A.G. Edwards. LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--Chicago Mercantile Exchange live cattle futures ended at or near limit-up levels Tuesday, as talk spread in the trading pit that Mother Nature's winter wrath would soon be felt in some of the nation's major cattle feeding areas. The soon-to-expire December contract ended up the $1.50 per/hundredweight limit, hitting a nearly one-week high. The most-actively traded February contract surged to a two-week peak, while April climbed to a three-week high. Each contract finished 2.5 cents below the limit price. The bullish sentiment spilled over to feeder cattle futures, which ended limit-up in almost every contract. Lean hog and pork belly futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange ended mostly lower Tuesday in a light-volume day as the market faced uncertainties over cash hog values for the remainder of the week. The market had a relatively bearish tone at the open when the market failed Monday to move above a key resistance level of $53.70. Sell stops were tripped in February below $52.90 - around Monday's low. Another damping effect was Monday's low cattle kills of only 103,000 head versus 125,00 a week earlier. Tuesday's kill was 124,000. FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=food NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Arabica coffee futures on the Coffee, Sugar & Cocoa Exchange settled lower Tuesday in an extension of the selling wave that started on Monday, traders said. The bearish tone of the market was set from the opening bell, with prices leaning to the downside on perceptions that the reported drawdown on Green Coffee Association's stocks was too low. Cocoa futures settled lower Tuesday after a late bout of hedge selling kept the market near the session's low. The move was called a "corrective" pullback by some participants, but it wasn't expected to alter the market's long-term bullish outlook. Cocoa prices whipsawed for the first half of the session in very thin volume, with early long liquidation weighing on prices. Once that quieted down, some short covering by locals briefly pushed the most-active March contract into positive terrain until renewed light selling emerged. World March raw sugar futures closed at a six-week low Tuesday after a dramatic trading session, which featured a massive amount of technical selling by funds. The market began weaker off the back of heavy selling in the Liffe market. Locals and small speculators sold the market down to 7.15 cents, which is where funds sell-stops kicked-in, and then a downward spiral ensued. After the market hit a low of 7.02 cents a pound, locals and speculators started short covering, but the rally was short lived and selling once agaiin took charge of the market. Final volume was estimated at a hefty 33,000 lots. After a listless session, cotton futures on the New York Cotton Exchange settled lower Tuesday in what some participants described as a consolidation move. The market opened modestly lower in light trade selling, and the most active March contract floated within a relatively tight trading range for most of the session. "There is really nothing going on - it's a bit choppy but there's not much activity down here," said one floor broker. Daily Extreme Commentary is brought to you by GLOBALcharts, INO.com's end-of-day charting software for Futures, Futures Options and Optionable Stocks. http://www.globalcharts.com Search the INO Store - http://store.ino.com/ _____________________________________________________________________ I N O N E W S _____________________________________________________________________ Primex Auction System Trades 2.4 Million Shares On First Day http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27638 Combined Futures & Options COT Report Now Available Weekly http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27637 Euronext's NextEconomy & NextPrime Segments Start January http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27636 ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E F U T U R E S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/futures/ WINNERS LBF2 Random Length Lumber Jan 2002 250.30 10.00 +4.16 DAG2 BFP Milk Feb 2002 11.79 0.29 +2.52 LCZ1 Live Cattle Dec 2001 64.975 1.500 +2.36 DBZ1 Butter Dec 2001 130.000 3.000 +2.36 QLH2 Central Appalachian Coal Mar 2002 28.90 0.65 +2.30 XLG2 Live Cattle Feb 2002 69.55 1.43 +2.10 FCJ2 Feeder Cattle Apr 2002 82.750 1.500 +1.85 HOU2 Heating Oil Sep 2002 0.5701 0.0105 +1.84 ZRH2 U.S. Dollar/South African Rand Mar 2002 12.4775 0.2175 +1.76 SIZ1 Silver Dec 2001 4.415 0.070 +1.61 LOSERS SBN2 Sugar #11 World Jul 2002 6.17 -0.31 -4.78 XOH2 Oats Mar 2002 191 1/2 -7 -3.55 OK2 Oats May 2002 175 1/2 -5 -2.77 PBQ2 Frozen Pork Bellies Aug 2002 77.550 -2.100 -2.68 RAH2 South African Rand Mar 2002 0.080150 -0.002125 -2.62 RRF2 Rough Rice Jan 2002 3.850 -0.100 -2.53 NGH2 Henry Hub Natural Gas Mar 2002 2.719 -0.064 -2.31 CCH3 Cocoa Mar 2003 1175 -25 -2.07 SMF2 Soybean Meal Jan 2002 147.8 -3.1 -2.05 CTN2 Cotton Jul 2002 39.45 -0.75 -1.87 *FREE TRADING KIT-- CD, Video, or Audiocassette Specifically designed for futures & option traders. http://www.ino.com/specials/barkley/invpackage.html ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E S T O C K S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/stocks/ WINNERS ILXI INTERLOGIX INC 38.6300 9.8900 +34.45 RTEL RAYTEL MEDICAL CORP 7.5500 1.7100 +29.28 PRZ PRIZE ENERGY 22.51 4.45 +24.59 SONS SONUS NETWORKS 5.6400 1.0900 +23.96 KANAD KANA SOFTWARE INC NEW 20.7300 3.7300 +22.03 OICO O.I. CORP 7.0000 1.1700 +20.53 SWTX SOUTHWALL TECH INC 7.0000 1.1300 +19.42 NMHC NATL MEDICAL HEALTH CARD SYS 8.7500 1.3500 +18.24 NOLD NOLAND CO 29.5000 4.5000 +18.00 IO INPUT/OUTPUT INC 9.45 1.40 +17.39 LOSERS SOS STORAGE COMPUTER 5.32 -1.85 -25.69 INVN INVISION TECHNOLOGIES 30.2800 -7.2505 -19.33 OSIS OSI SYSTEMS 16.6900 -4.0000 -19.32 SLR SOLECTRON CORP 12.10 -2.71 -18.30 AINN APPLIED INNOVATION 5.3990 -1.1200 -17.23 FVE* FIVE STAR QUALITY CARE INC WI 6.15 -1.25 -16.67 ASW A.C.L.N. LTD 26.50 -4.25 -13.82 INHL INHALE THERAPEUTIC SYS 17.0900 -2.5700 -13.20 ENE-J ENRON CORP $10.50 CV 2ND PFD 13.92 -2.05 -12.81 KTO K2 INC 7.10 -0.98 -12.65 _____________________________________________________________________ T H A N K Y O U _____________________________________________________________________ Thank you for subscribing to the Extreme Markets Daily Digest from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ). If you want to subscribe to our other email services, or would like to modify your profile please visit http://www.ino.com/email/. To subscribe a friend, visit: http://www.ino.com/email/ To unsubscribe, visit: http://www.ino.com/email/remove/?email=mike.grigsby@enron.com&list=evening -- Copyright 1998-2001 INO.com. All Rights Reserved.