Message-ID: <17927944.1075855350713.JavaMail.evans@thyme> Date: Wed, 19 Dec 2001 15:57:15 -0800 (PST) From: evening@ino.com To: mike.grigsby@enron.com Subject: Trader, Wednesday USD +0.26 CRB -0.66 DOW +71.34 S&P +6.66 NAS -21.87 Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ANSI_X3.4-1968 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-From: INO.com X-To: Grigsby, Mike X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \Michael_Grigsby_Jan2002_1\Grigsby, Mike\Deleted Items X-Origin: Grigsby-M X-FileName: mgrigsb (Non-Privileged).pst W E D N E S D A Y E V E N I N G E X T R E M E M A R K E T S A complimentary service from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ) Wednesday: The CRB Index has eased 0.66 points to 189.67. The US Dollar Index gained 0.26 points to 115.48. The Dow Industrials advanced 71.34 points, at 10070.49, while the S&P 500 climbed 6.66 points, last seen at 1149.56. 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FREE ONLINE 11 PAGE BROCHURE AT: http://store.ino.com/sale/1E78A/TWOV-Visually Click for Safety First Strategies! Order Toll Free 800-538-7424 - 410-867-7424 All claims on third-party products are made by the publisher and not by INO.com. All Products Guaranteed. _____________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E M A R K E T C O M M E N T A R Y _____________________________________________________________________ The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes Stock indexes were mixed on Wednesday. The NASDAQ closed lower on Wednesday on ideas that some of the tech stocks have become overvalues, which triggered a round of profit taking by investors. Additional pressure came from news that Motorola will trim its job force by another 9,400 jobs. Closes above last week?s high at 2036.54 would temper the bearish outlook for the NASDAQ and could lead to sideways to higher prices into the end of the year. Closes below 1898.80 would open the door for a larger-degree decline into early- January. The March S&P 500 index closed higher for the fourth day in a row on Wednesday as it continues to rebounded off the 25% retracement level of this fall?s rally crossing at 1120.66. However, it will take closes above December's high at 1176 to renew this fall's rally. Until then, I would not be surprised to see March trade sideways into the end of the year. The Dow closed higher for the third day in a row on Wednesday. Support came from better-than-expected leading economic indicators for November. The Dow has fought back from last week's low and is poised to test broken trendline support and the 62% retracement level of the May/September decline crossing at 10,094.10. Closes above these two resistance levels are needed to renew this fall's rally. INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=interest March T-bonds extended their rebound off Monday's on Wednesday and is challenging trendline resistance drawn across the Nov./Dec. highs, which crosses near 101-16. Support came from better-than-expected leading economic indicators for November. Multiple closes above the aforementioned downtrend line are needed to confirm a bottom and trend change. Momentum indicators are diverging and have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible into the end of the year. However, I would not be surprised to see a pause if not minor setback on Thursday as March may try to consolidate some of this week's short covering gains ahead of the Christmas Holiday. The CRB INDEX http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes The CRB index closed lower for the third day in a row on Wednesday due to weakness in meats, precious metals, fiber and natural gas. Today's low fell short of retesting this fall's uptrend line. Closes above 193.39 or below 187.73 are needed to clear up near-term direction in the market. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are still possible into the end of the year. ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=energy The energy markets closed higher on Wednesday following Tuesday's API inventory reports, which were supportive to the markets. The reports showed that crude oil stocks rose by 929,000 barrels last week. Distillate stocks including heating oil declined by 1.011 million barrels and gasoline stocks fell by 873,000 barrels last week. Additional support came from expectations for a cold snap in U.S. weather to begin shortly after the first of the new year. February crude oil extended this week's breakout above the fall?s downtrend while opening the door for a test of the early-December high crossing at 21.05 later this winter. Closes above this resistance level could lead to a test of the 38% retracement level of this fall's decline, which crosses at 21.77. Momentum indicators are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. February heating oil closed higher on Wednesday but fell just short of testing the early-December high crossing at 57.85. Momentum indicators are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above this resistance level would open the door for a larger-degree rebound into early-January. Today's rally was supported by the latest API inventor report that showed a 1.011 million-barrel decline in U.S. stocks last week. With forecasts calling for colder weather for the East Coast by early-January, additional short-covering gains are possible into the end of the year. February unleaded gas spiked above the early-December high of 57.62 on Wednesday following Tuesday's friendly API inventory report. Profit taking ahead of the close tempered some of today's gains leaving the door open for sideways trading on Thursday. However, momentum indicators are bullish signaling that additional strength is possible into the end of the year. Closes above 57.62 would set the stage for a test of November's gap crossing at 59.80 in the near future. February Henry Hub natural gas closed lower on Wednesday ahead of the release of this week's AGA inventory report. Low consumer demand due to above normal temps across the high demand regions of the U.S. along with lower industrial demand continues to weigh on prices. Closes above the Oct./Nov. downtrend line or below December's low at 2.58 are needed to clear up near-term direction in the market. Short- term momentum indicators are turning neutral to bearish hinting that sideways to lower prices are possible into the end of the year. CURRENCIES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=currencies The March Dollar gapped up and closed higher on Wednesday as it extends this week's short covering rebound. Closes above gap resistance crossing at 116.55 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and turning bullish signaling that a low was likely posted with Monday's spike below the 50% retracement level of the Sept./Nov. rally crossing at 115.42. The March Swiss Franc closed lower on Wednesday. Early weakness spiked below minor trendline support drawn across last week's low. A short covering bounce ahead of the close tempered some of today's loss allowing March to close at minor trendline support crossing at .6105. Additional weakness is needed to turn short-term momentum indicators bearish. Closes above .6182 would open the door for a larger-degree rebound into January. The March Canadian Dollar closed lower on Wednesday thereby confirming Tuesday's breakout below the Nov./Dec. uptrend line. Session lows spiked below the 38% retracement level of November's rally crossing at .6342. I would not be surprised to see a short covering bounce on Thursday as March might try to consolidate some of this week's losses. At the same time, momentum indicators have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible into early-January. The March Japanese Yen closed lower on Wednesday as it continues to drift lower following the recent breakout below weekly support crossing at .7903. If the decline continues, monthly fib support crossing at .7568 is the next target later this winter. The daily ADX signals that additional weakness is possible. It would take closes above November?s downtrend line crossing near .7990 to confirm a bottom and trend change has taken place. PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals February gold closed sharply lower on Wednesday due to profit taking, which was triggered by a firmer U.S. Dollar. Today's close below the early-December high crossing at 278.70 strongly suggests that the initial short covering rebound off last week's low has likely come to an end. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish with today's loss warning traders that additional weakness into the end of December is possible. March silver posted a huge key reversal down on Wednesday after early strength led to a spike above the 50% retracement level crossing at 4.423. Today's sharp decline and low-range close sets the stage for additional long- liquidation on Thursday. March closed below initial trendline support crossing near 4.34 thereby increasing the odds that a short-term top has been posted. Stochastics and the RSI have also turned bearish from overbought levels signaling that additional long-liquidation appears likely into the end of the year. March copper closed higher on Wednesday due to light short covering ahead of the close. March continues to consolidate above December's broken downtrend line as it is trying to solidify a bottom. Short-term momentum indicators are turning bullish signaling that additional short covering gains are possible into the end of the year. GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains March corn closed fractionally higher on Wednesday due to spillover support from sharply higher wheat prices. However, the corn market remains paralyzed by the uncertainty of which supply/demand scenario will play out in 2002. With export demand still running below the pace needed to reach this year's USDA projection, bulls are having a tough go of trying to build a case for higher prices anytime soon. Traders are not expecting any major surprises in Thursday's supply/demand report, as light pre-holiday trading volume will likely leave March corn range bound between 2.23 and 2.10 1/4 into January. March wheat closed sharply higher on Wednesday as news that China purchased 200,000 metric tonnes of U.S. wheat triggered fund buying that pushed it above minor resistance crossing at 2.90 1/2. While light profit taking ahead of the close tempered some of today's gains, March is poised to test this fall's downtrend line crossing near 2.95 later this month. Closes above this resistance level would open the door for a likely test of October's high crossing at 3.03 later this winter. Momentum indicators remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible into the end of the year. SOYBEAN COMPLEX http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains January soybeans closed higher on Wednesday leaving Tuesday's key reversal down unconfirmed. Talk that China bought about 15,000 tonnes of U.S. soybean oil triggered today's short covering rebound. Traders will pay close attention to Thursday's export sales report, which needs to remain strong in order to keep the bean market from falling any lower this winter. Closes above the Nov./Dec. downtrend line crossing near 4.41 3/4 are needed before a short-term bottom can be confirmed. Until then, the door remains open for a possible test of this fall's low crossing at 4.26 1/2. Short-term momentum indicators are bearish but becoming oversold hinting that a low might be near. January soybean meal posted an inside day with a higher close due to spillover support from bean oil, beans and wheat. Today's rally left Tuesday's key reversal down unconfirmed. If the fall decline resumes, the late-May low crossing at 146 is a possible target later this month. Closes above 152 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock February hogs closed lower on Wednesday as futures prices, which is premium to the cash market, are trying to realign themselves. Additional pressure came from light position squaring ahead of the release of the USDA's monthly cold storage report on Thursday. Trading is likely to move into a holding pattern ahead of the quarterly hogs and pigs' report due to be released on December 28th. Cash bids are called steady for Thursday, which should support a steady to firmer opening tomorrow. Momentum indicators are neutral to bullish hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible near- term. February cattle posted an inside day with a lower close due to light profit taking as traders began to position themselves ahead of Friday's cattle-on-feed report. This month's decline ahead of the report suggests that the market has already discounted any bearish news into prices. Expectations for a possible lull in marketings in early- January as cattle were pulled forward due to mild weather conditions this fall should help support February cattle into early-January barring a bearish report on Friday. Closes above Tuesday's high at 69.57 would open the door for a larger-degree rebound this winter. FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=food March coffee closed higher on Wednesday due to light short covering as it consolidated some of this week's loss. Early strength filled Monday's gap at 47.40. However, a late sell off ahead of the close tempered some of today's gains. While exchange stocks continue to shrink, Brazil's massive crop now growing continues to trigger producer selling on rallies. Short-term momentum indicators have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible into the end of the year. Closes below this month's low crossing at 44.75 would renew this year?s decline while setting the stage for a possible test of psychological support crossing at 40-cents later this winter. March cocoa gapped down and closed lower on Wednesday due to producer hedging and light speculator selling. The upper range close leaves the door open for a possible short covering bounce on Thursday. From a broader perspective, March needs to close above November?s high at 1365 or below last week's low at 1212 to clear up near-term direction in the market. The ability to hold at current levels in the height of its supply period with the African main harvest advancing underscores the firm tone underneath the market. March sugar closed lower on Wednesday and below the 50% retracement level of this fall's rally crossing at 698. Today's sell off was triggered by long-liquidation by funds. However, I would not be surprised to see a short covering bounce on Thursday as March might try to consolidate some of its recent losses. Longer-term, I am looking for March to try and test November's low at 661. Momentum indicators are bearish signaling that additional weakness near-term is possible. March cotton gapped down and closed lower on Wednesday. However, a short covering rally ahead of the close tempered much of today's loss leaving the door open for additional short covering on Thursday if this week's export sales report is bullish. Closes above the Nov./Dec. downtrend line crossing near 37.45 are needed to confirm a bottom has been posted. 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More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/futures/ WINNERS HOF2 Heating Oil Jan 2002 0.5613 0.0161 +2.94 WH2 Wheat Mar 2002 293 7 1/4 +2.54 XWH2 Wheat Mar 2002 293 6 3/4 +2.36 PNH2 Propane Mar 2002 0.3275 0.0075 +2.34 KWZ1 Wheat Dec 2001 280 1/2 6 +2.19 DAF2 BFP Milk Jan 2002 11.85 0.25 +2.16 HUK2 New York Harbor Unleaded Gasoline May 20 0.6430 0.0129 +2.03 CLN2 Light Sweet Crude Oil Jul 2002 20.43 0.38 +1.88 KCU2 Coffee 'C' Sep 2002 52.20 0.90 +1.75 BOH2 Soybean Oil Mar 2002 15.94 0.25 +1.59 LOSERS XCZ3 Corn Dec 2003 252 -14 -5.58 LBH2 Random Length Lumber Mar 2002 251.80 -8.20 -3.16 ON2 Oats Jul 2002 157 -5 -3.09 NGG2 Henry Hub Natural Gas Feb 2002 2.650 -0.072 -2.65 SIH2 Silver Mar 2002 4.308 -0.110 -2.49 XOH2 Oats Mar 2002 186 1/4 -4 1/2 -2.35 HGM2 Copper Jun 2002 0.6875 -0.0145 -2.08 PBQ2 Frozen Pork Bellies Aug 2002 76.400 -1.550 -2.00 AFH2 Aluminum Mar 2002 0.6455 -0.0130 -1.99 NDM2 NASDAQ 100 Index Jun 2002 1640.00 -32.00 -1.91 *FREE: 38 PAGE BOOKLET - "TRADING TACTICS of the PROS" A must read!! Written by a legendary trader. http://www.ino.com/specials/firstamerican/tactics.html ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E S T O C K S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/stocks/ WINNERS PRES PRESERVER GROUP INC 7.6500 2.5000 +48.08 TIVO TIVO INC 5.6800 1.1000 +24.39 QMDC QUADRAMED CORP 9.2500 1.8000 +24.23 VIRL VIRAGE LOGIC 18.4100 3.3900 +22.68 CNTE CENTENE CORP 20.7100 3.7400 +21.67 XPRSA U.S. XPRESS ENTERPRISES'A' 8.1129 1.2475 +17.44 AWRE AWARE INC 7.9350 1.1210 +16.54 SYNP SYNPLICITY INC 12.0100 1.6900 +16.54 MIR-A MIRANT TSRT I 6.25% CONV PFD A 39.95 5.40 +15.72 MIR MIRANT CORP 16.07 2.17 +15.61 LOSERS RGA-A REINSURANCE GRP OF AMER PFD A 49.35 -4900.65 -99.00 MM MUTUAL RISK MANAGEMENT 5.50 -3.34 -36.34 ENE-J ENRON CORP $10.50 CV 2ND PFD 10.05 -3.87 -27.80 ATRX ATRIX LABORATORIES 20.4700 -3.8500 -15.68 SNDK SANDISK CORP 14.1700 -2.5500 -15.25 TESTB TEST SECURITY 281.6300 -50.4400 -15.19 TQNT TRIQUINT SEMICONDUCTOR 12.0000 -2.1200 -15.04 ANAD ANADIGICS INC 13.9800 -2.3700 -14.86 RESC ROANOKE ELECTRIC STEEL 12.9000 -1.9700 -13.59 TERN TERAYON COMMUNICATIONS SYS 10.3400 -1.5890 -13.25 _____________________________________________________________________ T H A N K Y O U _____________________________________________________________________ Thank you for subscribing to the Extreme Markets Daily Digest from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ). 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