Message-ID: <74118.1075855351905.JavaMail.evans@thyme> Date: Thu, 20 Dec 2001 16:00:07 -0800 (PST) From: evening@ino.com To: mike.grigsby@enron.com Subject: Trader, Thursday S&P -9.63 USD +0.14 DOW -85.31 NAS -64.35 CRB +0.48 Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ANSI_X3.4-1968 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-From: INO.com X-To: Grigsby, Mike X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \Michael_Grigsby_Jan2002_1\Grigsby, Mike\Deleted Items X-Origin: Grigsby-M X-FileName: mgrigsb (Non-Privileged).pst T H U R S D A Y E V E N I N G E X T R E M E M A R K E T S A complimentary service from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ) Thursday: The CRB Index has advanced 0.48 points to 190.15. The US Dollar Index rose 0.14 points to 115.59. The Dow Industrials moved down 85.31 points, at 9985.18, while the S&P 500 fell 9.63 points, last seen at 1139.93. The Nasdaq Composite trended lower by 64.35 points to 1918.54. _____________________________________________________________________ *FREE TRADING KIT-- CD, Video, or Audiocassette Specifically designed for futures & option traders. http://www.ino.com/specials/barkley/invpackage.html _____________________________________________________________________ TIME, PRICE and PATTERN (video, book AND alerts!) http://store.ino.com/sale/1E78A/INTPP-TimePrice _____________________________________________________________________ FORECAST THE FUTURE, PROJECT HIGHS & LOWS AND DISCOVER HOW THE 1,2,3 METHOD REALLY WORKS! Dear Trader: Introducing TIME, PRICE and PATTERN from trading war room veteran John Crane. All-new 90-minute video and book offer shows you how to: >> Pinpoint market entry and exit signals >> Rely on internal market forces - not guesswork >> Learn to overcome the 7 biggest mistakes traders make. This incredible new method is nothing short of amazing. 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All Products Guaranteed. _____________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E M A R K E T C O M M E N T A R Y _____________________________________________________________________ The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes Stock indexes were lower on Thursday due to a number of earnings warnings among high-tech companies. Additional pressure was due to profit taking ahead of the Christmas holiday. The NASDAQ closed sharply lower on Thursday and below last week's low of 1934.60 and is poised to test the 25% retracement level of this fall's rally crossing at 1905.53 possibly on Friday. Momentum indicators remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible into early-January. The March S&P 500 index also closed lower on Thursday due to light profit taking triggered by a number of earnings warnings and Congresses inability to pass an economic stimulus package before Christmas. Bulls were encouraged as March remained within Wednesday's trading range thereby leaving the door open for additional short covering possibly into the end of the year. The Dow posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday due to light profit taking ahead of the Christmas Day holiday. Additional pressure came from a earnings and revenue warning from Juniper Networks causing some concern over the recent rally in technology stocks. News that Congress will not likely pass an economic stimulus package also weighed on prices. Losses were limited as the latest jobless claims report showed a decline of 11,000 claims to 384,000. INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=interest March T-bonds closed slightly lower on Thursday but ended above trendline resistance drawn across the Nov./Dec. highs, which crosses near 101-05. Multiple closes above this downtrend line and broken support crossing at 101-22 are needed to confirm today's trendline breakout. Support came from the latest jobless claims report, which showed a decline of 11,000 to 384,000. Momentum indicators have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible into the end of the year. I would not be surprised to see subdued trading on Friday as many traders will have already left to celebrate Christmas early. The CRB INDEX http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes The CRB index closed modestly higher on Thursday due to strength in hogs, precious metals, some foods, and natural gas. Today's rebound ended a two-day sell off from Monday's high. However, the mid-range close leaves the door open for sideways trading on Friday. Closes above 193.39 or below 187.73 are needed to clear up near-term direction in the market. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are still possible into the end of the year. ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=energy The energy markets closed lower on Thursday with the exception of natural gas. Today's weakness appears to be due to profit taking ahead of Christmas, as many traders will start the weekend early taking Friday off. Trading is likely to remain subdued ahead of OPEC's upcoming meeting next week when they will decide whether or not to go ahead with their announce production cut of 1.5 million barrels per day. Non- OPEC countries combined cuts are fast approaching the 500,000 barrel per day production cut needed for OPEC to enact their own cuts. February crude oil posted a key reversal down on Thursday due to light profit taking. Early strength failed to exceed Wednesday's high of 20.18, which triggered the sell off into the close. Additional weakness on Friday would confirm today's bearish reversal pattern that could lead to a test of recent lows crossing at 18.20. Trading is likely to remain subdued ahead of next week's OPEC meeting. February heating oil posted a key reversal down on Thursday after a spike above the early-December high crossing at 57.85 failed to attract additional buying. The low-range close on Thursday sets the stage for follow-through selling due to light profit taking ahead of Christmas on Friday. Trading volume will be low as many traders are expected to start the Christmas weekend on Friday. A lower close on Friday would signal that a double top may have been posted with today's high. February unleaded gas also posted a key reversal down on Thursday due to profit taking after spiking above the early- December high of 57.62. Early strength failed to trigger new buying so traders dumped their long positions ahead of the Christmas holiday weekend. Additional weakness on Friday would turn the near-term trend sideways ahead of next week's much anticipated OPEC meeting. February Henry Hub natural gas closed higher due to short covering on Thursday despite Wednesday's slightly negative AGA weekly inventory report. The report showed a draw of 44 billion cubic feet from U.S. stocks last week, which was below expectations, due in part to above normal temps across large portions of high demand regions of the country and continued weakness from industry. Closes above 2.94 or below December's low at 2.58 are needed to clear up near-term direction in the market. CURRENCIES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=currencies The March Dollar closed higher on Thursday but near session lows due to a late round of profit taking. Early strength tested last week's gap beginning at 11.46 before buying dried up. The low-range close leaves the door open for additional profit taking ahead of Christmas on Friday. Closes above gap resistance crossing at 116.55 would signal that a larger-degree rebound is possible into January. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that additional gains are possible. The March Swiss Franc closed higher on Thursday due to light short covering. Closes above Monday's high at .6154 are needed to renew March's rebound off December's low. At the same time stochastics and the RSI are nearing their respective overbought zones hinting that a test of November's high crossing at .6182 is possible however, time is no longer on their side. If this resistance level is tested in the near-future, it would likely mark a short-term top, defining the upper boundary of this winter's trading range. The March Canadian Dollar closed lower on Thursday and below the 38% retracement level of November's rally crossing at .6342. Today's decline sets the stage for a likely test of December's reaction low crossing at .6325 possibly before the end of the year. Momentum indicators have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible into early-January. The March Japanese Yen continues to decline off November's high and remains poised to eventually test monthly fib support crossing at .7568 later this winter. The daily ADX is bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible. Closes above November?s downtrend line crossing near .7972 are needed to confirm a bottom and trend change has taken place. PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals February gold posted a quiet inside day with a higher close on Thursday due to short covering as it consolidated some of Wednesday's loss. While another day or two of consolidation above Wednesday's low is possible, stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible into early-January. Closes above 283.30 or below 271.70 are needed to clear up near-term direction in the market. March silver closed higher on Thursday leaving Wednesday's key reversal down unconfirmed. Today's rebound leaves March poised to test the 50% retracement level crossing at 4.423. Closes above this resistance level are needed to keep the rally off November's low alive. At the same time, stochastics and the RSI are very overbought warning traders to use caution as a short-term top appears to be in or is near. March copper closed higher on Thursday as it continues to consolidate above the 50% retracement level of November's rally crossing at 67.50 and above December's broken downtrend line. Short-term momentum indicators are oversold and turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible into the end of the year. If this month's decline resumes, the 62% retracement level crossing at 66.04 is a potential target. GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains March corn closed lower on Thursday following this morning's disappointing export sales report, which showed net sales of only 23.7 million bushels. Additional pressure came from uncertainty over China's grain policies and conflicting data regarding their ending stocks level. Trading volume continues to dry up ahead of the extended Christmas Holiday weekend, which leaves the market vulnerable to test its contract low at 2.10 1/4 on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are still possible into early-January. Closes below the contract low would open the door for a possible test of weekly support crossing at 2.04 1/4 later this winter. March wheat closed sharply lower on Thursday erasing almost all of Wednesday's gains. The reason for today's sell off was a lack of confirmation about Wednesday's announced sale to China. Additional pressure was triggered when Cargill was a featured seller of wheat today. This week's back and fill type trading is often typical ahead of the Christmas Holiday and the end of the year due to reduced trading volume. While momentum indicators remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible into the end of the year, it will take closes above the Nov./Dec. downtrend line crossing near 2.95 to temper the bearish outlook in the market. SOYBEAN COMPLEX http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains January soybeans closed fractionally higher on Thursday following another strong weekly export sales report. The report showed net soybean sales of 36.6 million bushels. However, gains were limited due to weakness in corn and wheat. While demand remains strong for U.S. soybeans, the market is becoming increasingly concerned that South American supplies will soon cut in to U.S. export business. Without any major weather problems down south, I am looking for soybeans to continue to drift sideways to lower into January. January soybean meal closed higher on Thursday following another strong weekly export sales report. The report showed net sales of 142,400 metric tonnes. Closes above last Friday's high crossing at 151.90 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and have turned bullish with today's rally hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible into the end of the year. LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock February hogs posted an upside reversal on Thursday hinting that the setback off Monday's high might have come to an end. A higher close on Friday is needed to confirm today's bullish reversal pattern. Today's rally was triggered by talk that packers could raise their cash bids on Friday to fill their needs for what could be a large Saturday kill. Today's rally was limited ahead of this afternoon's monthly cold storage report. The report showed 36.290 million pounds of bellies in storage as of Nov. 30th, which is below pre- report estimates. Early calls are for steady to higher hogs on Friday and higher belly prices following today's friendly cold storage report. February cattle closed lower on Thursday as news of $62 cash trade in Kansas pressured the market lower. Thursday's decline ate into Tuesday's rally as traders are positioning themselves ahead of Friday's cattle-on-feed report. Momentum indicators remain bullish but will need to see renewed strength soon or risk rolling over into bearish modes when trading resumes next week. FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=food March coffee closed into new highs for the month on Thursday thereby renewing this month's short covering rally. Session highs filled November's gap at 49.60 thereby opening the door for a larger-degree rebound into January. Today's rally was due to year-end short covering by funds and small speculators. Light support came from news that the Central American harvest remains slow and part of that coffee crop will go unpicked due to current low prices. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible into the end of the year. November's high crossing at 53.00 is March's next target. March cocoa closed lower on Thursday in relatively quiet trading following Wednesday's gap down and lower close. Momentum indicators have turned bearish with this week's setback thereby increasing the odds that a short-term top is in place. Today's mid-range close leaves the door open for sideways trading on Friday. Closes below last week's low crossing at 1212 would open the door for a larger-degree decline into January. March sugar closed higher on Thursday due to light short covering following Wednesday's close below the 50% retracement level of this fall's rally crossing at 698. However, buying dried up late in the session, which led to a mid-range close. Sideways trading is possible on Friday however, momentum indicators remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible into early-January. I am looking for March to try and test November's low at 661 later this winter. March cotton posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday following a disappointing export sales report. Traders were looking for export sales to range from 200,000 to 250,000 bales. However, the report came in showing sales of only 169,900 bales. Fallout from Wednesday's upward revised Chinese crop estimate also weighed on prices. This week's setback has turned stochastics and the RSI bearish again signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible into the end of the year. Closes above 37.60 or below 34.91 are needed to clear up near-term direction in the market. Daily Extreme Commentary is brought to you by GLOBALcharts, INO.com's end-of-day charting software for Futures, Futures Options and Optionable Stocks. http://www.globalcharts.com Search the INO Store - http://store.ino.com/ _____________________________________________________________________ I N O N E W S _____________________________________________________________________ KCBT Changes Value Line End-Month Closing Time http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27651 October 2002 Target Date For Clearing 21 Implementation http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27650 Euronext And Portugal's BVLP Launch Merger Offer http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27649 NYMEX Introduces Strip Trading In Henry Hub Swaps http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27648 German 2001 Equities Volume Reaches 4.5 Trillion Euros http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27647 Eurex Sets World Annual Trading Volume Record Again http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27646 ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E F U T U R E S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/futures/ WINNERS ZRH2 U.S. Dollar/South African Rand Mar 2002 13.7260 0.8985 +6.96 KCH2 Coffee 'C' Mar 2002 49.60 2.70 +5.76 DBN2 Butter Jul 2002 153.000 5.000 +3.38 NGF2 Henry Hub Natural Gas Jan 2002 2.686 0.074 +2.83 SIN2 Silver Jul 2002 4.410 0.115 +2.66 OJH2 Orange Juice Froz. Conc. #1 Mar 2002 96.30 1.90 +2.01 SMF2 Soybean Meal Jan 2002 151.3 2.8 +1.89 SBH3 Sugar #11 World Mar 2003 6.31 0.11 +1.76 XEF2 Soybean Meal Jan 2002 151.3 2.3 +1.55 LBF2 Random Length Lumber Jan 2002 247.00 3.10 +1.27 LOSERS YLH2 NYSE Large Composite Mar 2002 583.15 -47.90 -8.18 PNF2 Propane Jan 2002 0.3150 -0.0150 -4.62 NDZ1 NASDAQ 100 Index Dec 2001 1558.50 -69.00 -4.24 AGZ1 Silver 1,000 oz. Dec 2001 4.211 -0.173 -4.02 HOH2 Heating Oil Mar 2002 0.5501 -0.0169 -2.98 CLG2 Light Sweet Crude Oil Feb 2002 19.28 -0.55 -2.78 XWH2 Wheat Mar 2002 287 1/2 -5 3/4 -1.96 KWH2 Wheat Mar 2002 283 3/4 -5 1/4 -1.82 RLH2 Russell 2000 Index Mar 2002 475.00 -8.25 -1.71 HUG2 New York Harbor Unleaded Gasoline Feb 20 0.5567 -0.0096 -1.69 * FREE: MANAGED FUTURES & IRA KIT AUDIO & VIDEO, reports, and info on Futures & Options IRAs http://www.ino.com/specials/icm/manfut.html ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E S T O C K S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/stocks/ WINNERS SLHN STEARNS & LEHMAN INC 6.2500 2.3500 +60.26 MGRC MCGRATH RENTCORP 37.5000 12.5200 +50.14 DSTM DATASTREAM SYSTEMS 5.5500 1.1600 +25.78 ETC ENVIRONMENTAL TECTONICS 7.00 1.16 +20.03 NFLD NORTHFIELD LABORATORIES 8.8000 1.3300 +17.50 RBIN R & B INC 6.9990 1.0200 +17.23 USAK USA TRUCK 11.4000 1.5000 +15.00 SOS STORAGE COMPUTER 6.05 0.80 +14.95 HOFF HORIZON OFFSHORE 5.8600 0.7500 +13.64 IPIC INTERNEURON PHARMACEUTICALS 10.7600 1.2600 +13.53 LOSERS ASW A.C.L.N. LTD 9.40 -16.81 -64.38 NOVT NOVOSTE CORP 8.0100 -3.7800 -31.74 TERN TERAYON COMMUNICATIONS SYS 7.4800 -2.9200 -28.24 PKTR PACKETEER INC 6.2500 -1.6105 -20.28 SABA SABA SOFTWARE 5.1100 -1.2600 -19.69 AMHC AMER HEALTHWAYS INC 29.0000 -7.0500 -19.45 GTPS GREAT AMERICAN BANCORP 19.2000 -4.1700 -17.84 JNPR JUNIPER NETWORKS 18.8500 -4.0800 -17.79 VANS VANS INC 11.4500 -2.4400 -17.45 NRGN NEUROGEN CORP 16.6500 -3.4400 -17.37 _____________________________________________________________________ T H A N K Y O U _____________________________________________________________________ Thank you for subscribing to the Extreme Markets Daily Digest from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ). If you want to subscribe to our other email services, or would like to modify your profile please visit http://www.ino.com/email/. To subscribe a friend, visit: http://www.ino.com/email/ To unsubscribe, visit: http://www.ino.com/email/remove/?email=mike.grigsby@enron.com&list=evening -- Copyright 1998-2001 INO.com. 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