Message-ID: <16682065.1075862019522.JavaMail.evans@thyme> Date: Fri, 16 Nov 2001 14:42:24 -0800 (PST) From: evening@ino.com To: mike.grigsby@enron.com Subject: Trader, Friday USD -0.07 CRB +2.02 DOW -5.40 S&P -3.59 NAS -1.99 Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ANSI_X3.4-1968 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-From: INO.com <evening@ino.com> X-To: Grigsby, Mike </O=ENRON/OU=NA/CN=RECIPIENTS/CN=MGRIGSB> X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \MGRIGSB (Non-Privileged)\Grigsby, Mike\Deleted Items X-Origin: Grigsby-M X-FileName: MGRIGSB (Non-Privileged).pst F R I D A Y E V E N I N G E X T R E M E M A R K E T S A complimentary service from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ) Friday: The CRB Index has advanced 2.02 points to 188.39. The US Dollar Index slipped 0.07 points to 116.44. The Dow Industrials fell 5.40 points, at 9866.99, while the S&P 500 declined 3.59 points, last seen at 1138.65. The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.99 points to 1898.58. _____________________________________________________________________ * FREE: MANAGED FUTURES & IRA KIT AUDIO & VIDEO, reports, and info on Futures & Options IRAs http://www.ino.com/specials/icm/manfut.html _____________________________________________________________________ STRAIGHTFORWARD BUY AND SELL ADVICE _____________________________________________________________________ Trader Chuck LeBeau and INO.com Team Up For CELEBRITYstocks! http://store.ino.com/sale/1E78A/SUBCELS-TopPicks Dear Trader: Short on Time? ...then prepare yourself for a few well-spent minutes per day as Chuck LeBeau teams up with INO.com in a first class stock selection service. Get clear trading signals and daily market guidance. Trade with precise, well-researched short- and medium-term trades. Get winning short-term trades like these: BMC Software (BMC ? NYSE) Long on October 16 at $15.50 Exit on October 26 at $17.38 12.13% Profit in 9 days! 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All Products Guaranteed. _____________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E M A R K E T C O M M E N T A R Y _____________________________________________________________________ The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes Stock indexes closed lower on Friday due to light profit taking ahead of the close. The NASDAQ posted another inside day with a slightly lower close as it consolidates below minor resistance crossing at 1933.94. Weekly momentum indicators remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible during the last half of November. If the aforementioned resistance level is cleared, the 25% retracement level of the 2000/2001 decline crossing at 2071.93 is a potential target later this year. The December S&P 500 index closed lower on Friday but held above the 50% retracement level of the May/September decline crossing at 1137.45. The door remains open for a test of the reaction high crossing at 1163.90 later this month. The Dow closed slightly lower on Friday due to light profit taking ahead of the weekend. Losses were limited following the release of today?s economic reports and ideas that the conflict in Afghanistan may come to an end by the end of the year. If this fall?s rebound continues, the 62% retracement level of this year?s decline crossing at 10094.10 is the Dow?s next target. INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=interest December T-bonds extended this week?s sharp sell off on Friday and tested the 75% retracement level of the Sept./Oct. rally crossing at 104-29. December bonds have decline over 5 points since Tuesday. While momentum indicators are bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible during the last half of November I would not be surprised to see a modest short covering bounce early next week. Longer-term the door is open for a possible test of September?s low crossing at 102-17. The CRB INDEX http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes The CRB index closed higher on Friday due to a rebound in energies, grains, fiber and foods. Session lows fell short of testing trendline support drawn across this fall?s lows. Closes below this support level crossing near 186 are needed to confirm that the shallow rebound off October?s low has ended. At the same time closes above this week?s high crossing at 190.46 are needed to renew this fall?s rally. ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=energy The energy markets closed higher on Friday due to short covering as it consolidated some of this week?s sharp losses. However, upside potential appears limited due to the possibility of a protracted fight between Russia and OPEC that could last for some time. December crude oil posted an inside day with a modestly higher close due to light short covering. However, December remains poised to test of the 75% retracement level of the 1998/2000 rally crossing at 16.83 later this month. If this support level fails to halt this fall?s decline the January 1999 reaction high crossing at 13.75 is a possible target later this fall. Momentum indicators are bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible during the last half of November. December heating oil posted an inside day with a modestly higher close on Thursday due to light short covering. However, a sell off ahead of the close tempered some of today?s gains leaving the door open for sideways trading on Monday. Session highs tested broken support marked by the October 1999 low crossing at 53.40. If this week?s decline continues, the 75% retracement level of the 1999/2000 rally crossing at 48.50 is December?s next likely target. Momentum indicators are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are likely into the last half of November. December unleaded gas ended higher on Friday due to light short covering as it consolidated some of this week?s losses. However, today?s short covering bounce fell short of testing broken support crossing at 51.87. While another day or two of short covering is possible, the door is open for additional weakness with the June 1999 low crossing at 47.00 being December?s next likely target. Momentum indicators are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. December Henry Hub natural posted an upside reversal on Friday after spiked below October?s low crossing at 2.535. Additional strength on Monday is needed to confirm today?s bullish reversal pattern thereby increasing the odds that this week?s low marked a double bottom with October?s low. If the decline off October?s high continues, weekly fib support crossing at 2.402 is a potential target later this year. Short-term momentum indicators are bearish but have entered their respective oversold zones hinting that a double bottom might be forming if October?s low can halt this month?s decline. CURRENCIES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=currencies The December Dollar posted another quiet inside day with a lower close as it consolidates just below trading range resistance crossing at 116.60. Closes above Wednesday?s high at 117.05 would confirm a breakout above this falls trading range and could lead to a test of August?s reaction high crossing at 117.49 later this month. Stochastics remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are still possible. The December Swiss Franc closed higher on Friday as it extended its short covering bounce off Wednesday?s low. Monday will be a key day in near-term direction of the market. A higher opening followed by a lower close on Monday would signal that this week?s short covering bounce has likely come to an end. Closes below Wednesday?s low at .5961 would renew December?s decline and set the stage for a likely test of the 50% retracement level of the July/September rally crossing at .5944. Momentum indicators are bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible during the later part of November. The December Canadian Dollar closed modestly lower on Friday, as is consolidated above October?s broken downtrend line. Today?s mid-range close leaves the door open for sideways trading on Monday. If December extends this week?s short covering rally the 25% retracement level of the July/November decline crossing at .6322 is December?s next upside target. Momentum indicators are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. The December Japanese Yen closed out the week on a low note on Friday. However, session lows fell short of testing October?s low crossing at .8132. If this support level is broken thereby renewing December?s decline off September?s high this summer?s low crossing at .8060 is a potential target later this year. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible into the last half of November. PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals December gold posted a second consecutive close below October?s low on Friday thereby opening the door for a possible test of August?s reaction low crossing at 272.60 later this month. However, today?s mid-range close leaves the door open for a possible short covering bounce on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible during the last half of November. December silver posted an inside day with a lower close on Friday as it consolidates below broken support crossing at 4.15. Close below last Friday?s low crossing at 4.055 cents would renew December?s decline off September?s high and could lead to a possible test of weekly support crossing at 3.90 later this month. December copper posted a key reversal up on Friday ending Thursday?s correction. At the same time December will need to close above Thursday?s high crossing at 69.60 to renew its rebound off last week?s low. If the rally resumes, August?s high crossing at 70.60 is December?s next target. Short-term momentum indicators are bullish but becoming overbought hinting that a test of August?s high early next week could trigger a round of profit taking. GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains December corn closed higher on Friday due in large part to spillover strength from soybeans and wheat. This morning?s export sales report came in at 31.9 million bushels, which was near the upper end of pre-report estimates but still below the pace needed to reach USDA export projections. Today?s high-range close sets the stage for a firmer opening on Monday but closes above initial gap resistance crossing at 2.09 1/2 are needed to trigger new buying interest in the market. Until then sideways trading will continue to dominate the market near-term. December wheat closed sharply higher on Friday as short covering gains were exaggerated as buy stops were hit above 2.86, which pushed December above last week?s high of 2.88 1/2. While a setback is possible on Monday due to ideas that today?s gains were overdone today?s rally turned a number of momentum indicators neutral to bullish signaling that the sell off from October?s high has come to an end. Today?s rally found little support from this week?s export sales report, which came in at 14 million bushels and well within pre-report estimates. SOYBEAN COMPLEX http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains January soybeans closed higher on Friday as bulls stepped up to the plate and defended their positions following this week?s breakout above initial gap resistance crossing at 4.44 1/. Today?s rally fell just short of filling October?s gap crossing at 4.53 1/2, which coincides with the 25% retracement level of the July/October decline crossing at 4.54. Closes above these key resistance levels are needed to open the door for a larger-degree post-harvest rebound that could last into the end of the year. Today?s weekly export sales report came in near the low end of pre-report estimates at 27.25 million bushels. However, expectations for improving foreign and domestic demand in the coming weeks along with a lack of sellers helps push January to new highs for the week. December soybean meal closed steady on Friday after testing the upper boundary of October?s trading range crossing at 167. A round of profit taking ahead of the close erased early gains leaving the door open for further consolidation on Monday. At the same time short-term momentum indicators remain bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible during the last half of November. Closes above 167 could lead to a test of September?s high crossing at 171 later this month. LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock December hogs closed sharply lower on Friday erasing the gains of the past three trading sessions. Much of today?s pressure in the December contract was due to bull spreaders dumping their positions ahead of the weekend. With packers covered on their needed into next Wednesday, weaker cash bids are expected to start the new week on Monday. Momentum indicators remain bearish hinting that December could renew its decline off last week?s high and possibly test October?s low at 46.70 later next week before a bottom is in place. December cattle closed higher on Friday due to short covering ahead of this afternoon?s cattle-on-feed report. Momentum indicators have turned bullish signaling that Monday?s low likely marked an important bottom. The late- week rebound has V-bottom written all over the market. This afternoon?s cattle-on-feed report was termed bearish. The big question is whether or not the decline ahead of the report factored in all of today?s bearish news. I am looking for a setback on Monday as the market absorbs today?s negative report. Here are the highlights of today?s report. USDA estimate Ave. guess Range of guesses On Feed as of Nov. 1 ----- 100% 99.2% 98.0- 100.00% Placed in October -------- 97% 91.5% 87.0- 97.5% Marketed in October ------ 99% 99.1% 97.0- 100.00% FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=food December coffee posted an inside day with a higher close on Friday and remains poised to extend its short covering rebound off October?s low. Closes above Wednesday?s high at 50.00 cents would renew this week?s rally setting the stage for a test of August?s gap crossing at 54.00 later this year. Momentum indicators are turning bullish signaling that additional gains are possible near-term. December cocoa gapped up and closed sharply higher on Friday as it cleared both last February?s high at 1237 and weekly fib resistance crossing at 1261. This week?s breakout above February?s high has opened the door for a possible test of the 62% retracement level of the 1997/2000 decline crossing at 1349 later this year. At the same time, if today?s gap is filled next week it would signal that a top has likely been posted as today?s gap was an exhaustion gap. March sugar closed lower on Friday due to light profit taking ahead of the weekend. If the rally continues, the 50% retracement level of the June/October decline crossing at 755 is March?s next target. Closes below this fall?s uptrend line crossing near 691 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Weekly momentum indicators remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible into late-November. December cotton closed higher on Friday supported by this week?s stellar export sales report that came in at 455,200 bales, the strongest of the marketing year. Nevertheless, December failed to exceed this week?s high at 35.60 and closed mid-range on the day. This leaves the door open for sideways trading on Monday. Closes below Thursday?s low at 33.40 could trigger new selling, which could end the late fall rally. If the rally resumes, fib resistance crossing at 37.25 is December?s next target. Momentum indicators are bullish but nearing their respective overbought zones warning traders to use caution as a short-term top might be near. Daily Extreme Commentary is brought to you by GLOBALcharts, INO.com's end-of-day charting software for Futures, Futures Options and Optionable Stocks. http://www.globalcharts.com Search the INO Store - http://store.ino.com/ _____________________________________________________________________ I N O N E W S _____________________________________________________________________ Pacific Exchange Adds 90 Options To B-D Auto-Ex Program http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27523 WTC Gold Re-Located And Eligible For NYMEX Deliveries http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27522 Tel Aviv Stock Exchange To Launch Euro-Shekel Derivatives http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27521 CME Records Busiest Ever Day, Sets Open Interest Record http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27520 Hong Kong Reduces Levies On Stock Futures Contracts http://news.ino.com/press/?release=27519 ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E F U T U R E S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/futures/ WINNERS PNM2 Propane Jun 2002 0.3150 0.0200 +6.78 HOX2 Heating Oil Nov 2002 0.5656 0.0298 +5.42 PAZ1 Palladium Dec 2001 342.00 16.05 +4.92 CCZ1 Cocoa Dec 2001 1285 54 +4.37 LBN2 Random Length Lumber Jul 2002 246.00 10.00 +4.15 DBZ1 Butter Dec 2001 140.000 5.000 +3.70 NGZ1 Henry Hub Natural Gas Dec 2001 2.637 0.094 +3.68 SCF2 Brent Crude Oil Jan 2002 17.76 0.63 +3.64 CLZ1 Light Sweet Crude Oil Dec 2001 18.03 0.62 +3.55 XWZ1 Wheat Dec 2001 289 1/4 9 3/4 +3.48 LOSERS QLN2 Central Appalachian Coal Jul 2002 30.50 -1.50 -4.69 LHZ1 Lean Hogs Dec 2001 48.050 -1.375 -2.78 RRH2 Rough Rice Mar 2002 4.160 -0.090 -2.12 XHZ1 Lean Hogs Dec 2001 48.05 -1.02 -2.06 CLZ5 Light Sweet Crude Oil Dec 2005 20.89 -0.33 -1.62 PNZ1 Propane Dec 2001 0.3100 -0.0050 -1.59 PBN2 Frozen Pork Bellies Jul 2002 74.500 -1.000 -1.32 TUH2 Treasury Notes 2yr Mar 2002 104 19/64 -87/64 -1.30 ZBH2 U.S. Treasury Bond Mar 2002 104 02/32 -1 06/32 -1.13 ZTZ1 Treasury Notes 2yr Dec 2001 104 56/64 -72/64 -1.07 *TWO FREE VIDEOS ON OPTIONS TRADING! 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More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/stocks/ WINNERS TESTV TEST SECURITY 42.6300 11.0100 +34.82 TESTA TEST SECURITY 120.4100 30.2100 +33.49 ITXC ITXC CORP 5.7200 1.4700 +33.18 AMIE AMBASSADORS INTL 19.4900 4.1500 +26.84 U US AIRWAYS GROUP 6.97 1.27 +22.28 MRVC MRV COMMUNICATIONS 5.2100 0.9300 +21.53 DNCR DYNACARE INC 13.1500 2.3200 +21.32 BRLI BIO-REFERENCE LABS 6.4000 1.0600 +19.67 DOC MEDICAL ADVISORY SYSTEMS INC 7.90 1.25 +18.80 RBAK REDBACK NETWORKS INC 5.3000 0.8000 +17.86 LOSERS FLIR FLIR SYS INC 34.3400 -7.0400 -17.17 VINT GOLDEN STATE VINTNERS'B' 5.5000 -0.8200 -14.91 AEOS AMER EAGLE OUTFITTERS INC 26.2700 -4.2900 -14.07 FC FRANKLIN COVEY 6.06 -0.95 -13.57 ATPG ATP OIL & GAS 5.2900 -0.7100 -12.35 SSPX SSP SOLUTIONS INC 5.1800 -0.6700 -11.75 IMCO IMPCO TECHNOLOGIES 14.3000 -1.8500 -11.60 MAGS MAGAL SECURITY SYSTEMS LTD 7.1800 -0.8900 -11.37 RMCI RIGHT MGMT CONSULTANTS 21.9300 -2.8800 -11.28 CTRA CENTRA SOFTWARE 6.8000 -0.8400 -11.05 _____________________________________________________________________ T H A N K Y O U _____________________________________________________________________ Thank you for subscribing to the Extreme Markets Daily Digest from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ). 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