Message-ID: <26599274.1075855606196.JavaMail.evans@thyme> Date: Mon, 14 May 2001 14:35:00 -0700 (PDT) From: evening@ino.com To: mike.grigsby@enron.com Subject: Trader, Monday DOW +56.02 CRB +0.92 USD +0.33 NAS -25.51 S&P +3.25 Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-From: "INO.com" <evening@ino.com> X-To: "Trader And INO User" <mike.grigsby@enron.com> X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \Michael_Grigsby_Jun2001\Notes Folders\Discussion threads X-Origin: Grigsby-M X-FileName: mgrigsb.nsf M O N D A Y E X T R E M E M A R K E T S A complimentary service from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ) Monday: The CRB Index is higher 0.92 points to 214.82. The US Dollar Index rose 0.33 points to 117.17. The Dow Industrials moved higher by 56.02 points, at 10877.33, while the S&P 500 climbed 3.25 points, last seen at 1248.92. The Nasdaq Composite eased 25.51 points to 2081.92. OOO 2 FREE OPTIONS VIDEOS FROM THE OPTIONS INDUSTRY COUNCIL !!! 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Until now, never before put in easy-to-use, hands-on format for everyone from the novice to the professional trader FREE 12 PAGE BROCHURE AT... http://store.ino.com/sale/1E78A/TWODN-ODDS <a href="http://store.ino.com/sale/1E78A/TWODN-ODDS">Click for ODDS Trading System</a> Order Toll Free 800-538-7424 - 410-867-7424 All claims on third-party products are made by the publisher and not by INO.com. All Products Guaranteed. _____________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E M A R K E T C O M M E N T A R Y _____________________________________________________________________ June Nasdaq futures closed 26.50 lower at 1808.00 today. Prices hit a fresh two-week low today, but have been trading sideways for several weeks. The sideways trading favors the bulls, but they still have some heavy lifting to do and their next upside objective is resistance at the key 2,000 area. First support is seen at the 1,732 area. June S&P 500 futures closed 0.20 higher at 1252.00. Same story: Prices have leveled off the past four weeks, after rallying solidly off the early-April low. This does favor the bulls, but not greatly. Technically, bulls still need to push prices above the 1285 resistance area. My bias is still that any recovery in the stock market and the stock indexes won't be dramatic, but a slower grind higher, with fits and starts. First resistance is seen at 1285.00. First support is seen at 1206.00. LIVESTOCK: June live cattle closed $0.58 higher at 70.75 today. Prices rebounded from a technically oversold condition today, and on news that boxed beef prices had improved. Last week, prices hit a fresh multi-month low. Still, prices are in an accelerating two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart and bears have control. Next support, basis June, is seen at $70.25. First resistance comes in at the $71.00 level. August feeder cattle closed off 22 cents today at $87.65. The rally in the corn market today hurt feeders. If recent history continues to play out in feeders, prices may dip a bit more, but the support area of 87.40 will cap losses. That is the lower level of the trading band in place for the past several weeks. If prices break down below the bottom of the recent trading range, then the door is opened to a lower trend down to the January low just above the $86.00 level. Next resistance is seen at $88.00. First support is seen at $87.60 and then at $87.40. June lean hogs closed $0.25 higher at $68.80 today. Commercial buying was seen in the futures pits, reports said. Price action today saw more consolidation after the strong losses recorded in recent weeks. But the bears still have the momentum on their side at present. Next support lies at $67.00. First resistance is located at the 69.50 level. GRAINS: July corn futures closed 4 1/2 cents higher at $2.01 3/4 today. Another "mini" weather scare popped prices today. Two important things to point out here: One, July corn (now the nearby contract) did not stay below the key $2.00-per-bushel level very long. Secondly, notice how even some hot temps forecast for mid-May popped prices higher. I suspect that with prices this low going into the growing season, this type of knee-jerk reaction to any changes in the weather patterns will be the norm. Still, bottom pickers should beware. Next resistance is now seen at $2.04. Next support is seen at $2.00. July soybeans closed 7 1/2 cents higher at $4.43 1/4 today. Like corn, beans were boosted by a "mini" weather scare and ideas that now there may not be significant corn acres switched to soybeans. Importantly, the bean market did not fare that badly, technically, last week, in the face of the sell offs in corn and wheat futures. Today's big upside push propelled prices to a fresh five-week high and pushed prices above a stiff resistance area at $4.45. Bears still have the advantage. It's going to take a "significant" weather scare this spring or summer to force soybean prices solidly higher. First resistance is now seen at the $4.50 area and then $4.55. First support is now seen at $4.35. July soybean meal closed up $3.60 at $159.40 today. Prices today pushed to a fresh nearly three-month-high. Importantly, prices pushed above the congestion area on the daily bar chart that had contained gains for better than a week. Recent price action is very encouraging to the bulls and is a solid sign the lows are in place in the meal market. Next resistance comes in at the $162.00 area. First support is seen at $156.00. July bean oil closed 7 points higher at 14.73 cents today. Prices scored another new contract low today of 14.62 cents. Oil is still technically weaker than beans or meal right now. But I would be surprised if there is much downside left in oil. Next resistance comes in at 15.00 cents. Next support is seen at 14.50 cents. July Chicago wheat gapped higher on the daily bar chart and closed 7 1/4 cents higher at $2.78 1/2 today. Hot and dry weather forecast for the U.S. Plains states this week combined with a bullish USDA report last Thursday to send prices sharply higher today. Now, odds have increased that a double-bottom reversal on the daily bar chart will be confirmed. The fact that wheat was technically oversold also led to the stronger upside movement today. Prices last Wednesday touched the contract low of $2.65. Bears still have the slight edge, but bulls are gaining confidence rapidly. First resistance lies at the $2.80 area. Next support is seen at $2.75. SOFTS: July N.Y. sugar closed 9 points lower at 9.01 cents today. Prices scored a bearish "outside day" down on the daily bar chart today. We still could see a minor bullish pennant forming in sugar, but prices would need to bounce right back higher soon. Bulls can still correctly argue that today's pullback was just consolidation amid good prices gains seen recently. A three-month high was scored in July sugar just recently. A six-week-old uptrend line is still in place on the daily bar chart. Next resistance now comes in at 9.15 cents--today's high. First support is seen at 8.80 cents. July N.Y. coffee closed 3.40 cents lower at 64.25 cents today. Prices gapped lower on the daily bar chart and let some of the air out of the bulls' balloon. They had gained momentum lately. Not much technical damage will occur if prices can rebound, but if good follow-through selling occurs Tuesday, then odds significantly increase that prices will test the recent lows. First support comes in at 62 cents. First resistance is seen at 67.00 cents-- today's high. July N.Y. cocoa closed $10 higher today, at $1,024. Prices scored a corrective "inside day" on the daily bar chart today, following Friday's big sell off. The bears wanted to see follow-through selling today to confirm a bearish key reversal down on the daily bar chart, but that did not occur. Bulls and bears are still on a level playing field. Next resistance comes in at $1,062. First support is now seen at $1,000. July cotton closed 153 points higher at 46.70 cents today. Hot and dry weather in the cotton-growing regions of the U.S. combined with a technically oversold condition on the market to push prices solidly higher today. The cotton market will be like the grains. Prices are so depressed that traders will be extra jumpy when any potentially adverse weather patterns are forecast. There was good follow-through buying today from Friday's "outside day" up on the daily bar chart, and a key reversal up was confirmed. This gives the bulls a bit more confidence. Cotton is still in a bear market and any rebounds may be selling opportunities for the bears. Let's see what happens this week. My bias is still that we are not that far from a bottoming process. Next resistance lies at 48.00 cents. First support now is seen around 45.00 cents. Would-be bottom-pickers should still beware. July orange juice futures closed 30 points higher today, at 79.20 cents. Prices closed near the session high. Last week, bulls filled an important downside gap area on the daily bar chart. They have gained confidence after the recent price action, but will need to see more upside action this week--pushing prices above 80 cents--to gain solid momentum. Next resistance is seen at 80.00 cents. Next support comes in at 77.60 cents--today's low. July lumber futures closed the limit of $10.00 higher again today, at $324.80. Prices today again gapped higher and hit a new for-the-move high. Bulls are really snorting now. Expect more volatility, as is typical for this market. The next upside objective for the bulls is now the $330.00 area, and then $335.00. First support is seen at the $315.00 area. This is a fun market to watch from the sidelines. But the volatility can be a killer to those who are caught on the wrong side of the lumber market. METALS: June COMEX gold closed up $0.40 today, at $268.70. Prices corrected a bit more today after last Wednesday's strong gains that pushed prices to a two-month high. This market is in a nice uptrend since scoring its early-April low. Recent price action is what bulls needed to gain confidence to trek farther north on the chart. Next resistance is located at $271.10--the recent high. First support is seen at $266.00. July silver closed up $0.02 today, at $4.357 an ounce. Same story: Silver prices are not that far above the contract low. Prices are chopping at lower levels, and this suggests a "basing" action that many markets need to change the trend from down, to sideways, to eventually up. Next support is seen at $4.30. First resistance is seen at $4.425. Bears have the advantage. July N.Y. copper closed 85 points lower today, at 75.50 cents. A bearish U.S. economic report today pulled copper prices down to a new contract low. The stock market and the U.S. economy will have to be healthy before the bulls can really get something going in copper. Next resistance is seen at 77.00 cents. Next support is seen at 75.00 cents. ENERGIES: July crude closed $0.06 higher at $29.13 today. Bulls and bears are still at a stand-off, but bulls will gain the edge on a move above $29.50. Expect more choppy trading. Next support is seen at 28.00. Next resistance lies at $29.50. July heating oil closed 86 points lower today, at .7566. Bulls still have the slight edge. Look for more choppy trading in the near future. Next support is seen at 74.00 cents. Next resistance is seen at 78.00 cents. July unleaded gasoline closed 302 points lower at .9428 today. After prices scored a new contract high last week, they have sold off dramatically. The increase in volatility at higher price levels suggests a topping process in the market. Bulls have lost their edge. Next support is seen at $.9200. First resistance is seen at $.9600. July natural gas closed 11.5 cents higher at $4.465 today. After, prices hit a fresh five-and-one-half-month low last Wednesday, we've seen corrective consolidation. Bears still have the edge. Next support is seen at $4.20 and first resistance is at $4.60. STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The June Euro currency closed 20 points lower at .8740 today. Prices pushed to another fresh four-week low today. Bears have the edge. My bias is still that there is not much downside left in the Euro, but the markets are always right, so we'll see. Next support is now seen at .8700. Next resistance is seen at .8850. The June Japanese yen closed 47 points lower at .8143 today. Bears are in control. Bulls are hoping for some "basing" activity at lower levels, and that may be occurring, although it's too early to tell. Next support now lies at the .8100 level. First resistance is seen at the .8326 level. The June Swiss franc closed 10 points lower at .5713. Bears are in command. Prices pushed to a fresh 5.5-month low today, and took out the mid-April low of .5702. If we see follow-through selling to push prices significantly below today's low, that a bearish signal and portends significantly more downside. A 4.5-month-old downtrend line is in place on the daily bar chart, and it has accelerated recently. Next support is seen at the .5700 level. First resistance comes in at the .5800 level. The June Australian dollar futures closed 22 points lower at .5193 today. Prices pushed to a fresh two-month high last Thursday and the bulls have the advantage as a six- week-old uptrend line is in place on the daily bar chart. First resistance is now seen at .5300. First support is now seen at .5150. The June Canadian dollar closed 4 points lower today, at .6444. Bulls are losing momentum as prices correct from the push to the May high. They still have the slight edge, on a short-term basis, but they will lose it if they can't turn prices at least sideways this week. This currency had been near recent historic lows and I do not think there is much more downside. Next resistance is seen at the .6500 level. First support is seen at the .6400 level. The June British pound closed 4 points lower at 1.4182. Trading continues choppy at lower levels. As prices approach the lower portion of the recent trading range, strong support should kick in and provide for a bounce. But if prices fall below the early April low of 1.4112, then the door is open to much steeper losses. This currency was not that far above recent historic lows and I do not think there is much more downside in the sterling. One could still argue that price action the past few weeks has been a "basing" before prices eventually turn north. A move below 1.4100 would be considered a bearish downside breakout. Next support is now seen at the 1.4112 level. Next resistance comes in at the 1.4270 level. The June U.S. dollar index closed 24 points higher at 117.22 today. Prices also pushed to a fresh four-week high again today. Next resistance lies at the 117.70 level. First support is seen at the 115.50 area. My bias is still that there is not much upside left in the dollar index. But this week technical odds have increased that a new high will be scored. We'll see. Markets are never wrong-- analysts are. June U.S. T-bonds closed 14/32 higher today at 99 20/32. Prices scored a corrective "inside day" today after Friday's price crash to a six-month low. All eyes are on this week's FOMC meeting, at which a decision will be made on whether or not to cut interest rates. Trading will likely be subdued up to the time of the announcement, which is set to occur tomorrow afternoon. Short-term indicators show the market is still overdone on the downside, but nobody should stand in front of a steaming locomotive. Longer-term charts do show good support at the 99 even area. First resistance is now seen at 100 even-- or "par." The June U.S. T-note closed up 12.0 (32nds) today at 103.11.0. Prices scored a corrective "inside day" after crashing to a five-month low Friday. Bears have the edge now, as severe technical damage has been inflicted this week. First support is seen at the 102.29.0 level. First resistance is seen at 103.16.0 area. Daily Extreme Commentary is brought to you by GLOBALcharts, INO.com's end-of-day charting software for Futures, Futures Options and Optionable Stocks. http://www.globalcharts.com Search the INO Store - http://store.ino.com/ _____________________________________________________________________ T O P N E W S _____________________________________________________________________ STOCKS Japan Stocks Review: Nikkei falls 1.2% closing below 14000 line http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25475 US Equities Review:Mixed ahead of Fed; volume lightest this yr http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25482 UK Stocks Review: Program trade sends FTSE diving in auction http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25481 FOREX US FX Review: Dollar strong ahead of expected Fed rate cuts http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25477 Asia FX Review: Trading locked in a range in Asia ahead of FOMC http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25474 Europe FX Review: Market on hold ahead of Fed rate decision http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25476 CREDIT US Credit Review: Ends 2-day down streak as awaits Fed meet http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25472 Europe Credit Review: Mkt falls ahead of Fed rate decision http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25478 Japan Credit Review: June climbs as longer paper outperforms http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25480 COMMODITIES US Futures Summary: Natural gas, grains rally; gasoline dives http://news.ino.com/summary/?id=25479 EXCHANGES CME, CBOE Create Joint Venture On Single-Stock Futures http://news.ino.com/press/?release=24447 New Rules Proposed For Derivatives Clearing Organizations http://news.ino.com/press/?release=24446 Holland's Essent Energy Joins EEX Exchange http://news.ino.com/press/?release=24445 ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E F U T U R E S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/futures/ WINNERS LBK1 Random Length Lumber May 2001 335.00 16.00 +5.02 ZM1 U.S. Treasury 6% Bond Jun 2001 103 184/256 4 3/32 +4.11 NGM1 Henry Hub Natural Gas Jun 2001 4.394 0.157 +3.67 CTN1 Cotton Jul 2001 46.70 1.58 +3.50 XEV1 Soybean Meal Oct 2001 149.2 4.8 +3.29 CK1 Corn May 2001 195 1/2 5 3/4 +3.03 SMN2 Soybean Meal Jul 2002 150 4.3 +2.95 KWK1 Wheat May 2001 332 1/2 9 1/2 +2.94 SK1 Soybeans May 2001 463 13 +2.89 WN1 Wheat Jul 2001 279 7 3/4 +2.86 LOSERS KCU1 Coffee 'C' Sep 2001 67.15 -3.60 -5.11 PAM1 Palladium Jun 2001 627.00 -30.00 -4.57 HUM1 New York Harbor Unleaded Gasoline Jun 20 1.0098 -0.0391 -3.72 AFN1 Aluminum Jul 2001 0.7000 -0.0200 -2.78 NKM1 Nikkei 225 Stock Avg Jun 2001 13780 -350 -2.48 NDZ1 NASDAQ 100 Index Dec 2001 1835.00 -41.50 -2.21 ERY0 FTSE Eurotop 100 Cash 3250 -63.7 -1.92 XWK1 Wheat May 2001 269 1/2 -4 1/2 -1.71 DAK2 BFP Milk May 2002 11.55 -0.20 -1.70 CLM2 Light Sweet Crude Oil Jun 2002 25.93 -0.39 -1.51 ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E S T O C K S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/stocks/ WINNERS SMTI SMTEK INTL INC 7.50 2.38 +46.48 ALCO ALICO, INC 22.80 4.32 +23.29 HSE HS RESOURCES 64.43 11.15 +20.93 IMNR IMMUNE RESPONSE 5.95 0.99 +20.41 INOD INNODATA CORP 6.25 0.86 +16.10 ADLR ADOLOR CORP 16.66 2.11 +14.55 FMT FREMONT GENL 5.93 0.73 +14.04 WFII WIRELESS FACILITIES(IPO) 6.52 0.81 +13.64 COD Chiles Offshore Inc 24.63 2.88 +13.24 INGN Introgen Therapeutics 6.93 0.80 +13.05 LOSERS PPDI PHARMACEUTICAL PRODUCT DEVLPMT 31.32 -31.34 -100.03 ENMD ENTREMED INC 15.30 -4.00 -20.78 MAXC MAXCO INC 7.50 -1.43 -19.07 NEWP NEWPORT CORP 36.61 -6.30 -14.68 GGB GERDAU S.A. ADS 6.76 -1.09 -13.90 RZYM RIBOZYME PHARMACEUTICALS 7.58 -1.21 -13.81 MATX MATRIX PHARMACEUTICAL 8.62 -1.31 -13.23 HYGS Hydrogenics Corp 5.78 -0.86 -13.13 ARBA ARIBA INC 6.03 -0.87 -12.61 CGPI COLLAGENEX PHARMACEUTICALS 7.24 -0.99 -12.22 FREE MANAGED FUTURES & IRA RETIREMENT KIT http://www.ino.com/specials/icm/ _____________________________________________________________________ T H A N K Y O U _____________________________________________________________________ Thank you for subscribing to the Extreme Markets Daily Digest from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ). If you want to subscribe to our other email services, or would like to modify your profile please visit http://www.ino.com/email/. To subscribe a friend, visit: http://www.ino.com/email/ To unsubscribe, visit: http://www.ino.com/email/remove/?email=mike.grigsby@enron.com&list=evening -- Copyright 1998-2001 INO.com. All Rights Reserved.