Message-ID: <795904.1075855353668.JavaMail.evans@thyme> Date: Thu, 27 Dec 2001 15:05:07 -0800 (PST) From: evening@ino.com To: mike.grigsby@enron.com Subject: Trader, Thursday USD -0.34 CRB -1.42 DOW +43.17 S&P +7.76 NAS +15.72 Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-From: INO.com <evening@ino.com> X-To: Grigsby, Mike </O=ENRON/OU=NA/CN=RECIPIENTS/CN=MGRIGSB> X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \Michael_Grigsby_Jan2002_1\Grigsby, Mike\Inbox X-Origin: Grigsby-M X-FileName: mgrigsb (Non-Privileged).pst T H U R S D A Y E V E N I N G E X T R E M E M A R K E T S A complimentary service from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ) Thursday: The CRB Index is declining 1.42 points to 192.07. The US Dollar Index moved down 0.34 points to 117.57. The Dow Industrials advanced 43.17 points, at 10131.31, while the S&P 500 gained 7.76 points, last seen at 1157.13. 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Order today to avoid disappointment. http://store.ino.com/sale/1E78A/FMV2871-Raschke <a href="http://store.ino.com/sale/1E78A/FMV2871-Raschke"> Classic Indicators - Back to the Future</a> Order Toll Free 800-538-7424 - 410-867-7424 All claims on third-party products are made by the publisher and not by INO.com. All Products Guaranteed. _____________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E M A R K E T C O M M E N T A R Y _____________________________________________________________________ The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes Stock indexes were higher on Thursday as strength in Advance Micro Devices and continued strength in Yahoo underpinned today's rallies. The NASDAQ continues to consolidate above key fib support crossing at 1905.53. Closes above last week's high at 2010.91 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. The March S&P 500 index posted its highest close in nearly two and a half weeks on Thursday. The persistent rebound off the 25% retracement level of this fall's rally crossing at 1120.66 has set the stage for a possible test of December's high crossing at 1176 by early-January. The Dow posted a quiet inside day with a modestly higher close on Thursday as it consolidated above the 62% retracement level of the May/September decline crossing at 10,094.10 at 10,088. Technology stocks supported today's rally however, trading volume was light due to the holidays. INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=interest March T-bonds closed higher on Thursday and in the process posted a key reversal up. Additional strength will be needed on Thursday to confirm today's bullish reversal pattern. However, closes above December's reaction high crossing at 102-05 will be need to confirm a bottom and trend change has taken place. Until then look for sideways trading to continue into early-January. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. The CRB INDEX http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes The CRB index posted a key reversal down on Thursday due to weakness in cattle, precious metals, fiber, and energies. Today's high fell short of testing of the 25% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 194.76. The CRB index is at a crossroads as it consolidates below the 25% retracement level and this year's downtrend line crossing near 195.35. Unless these resistance levels are cleared, it would appear as though a double top might be forming with today's bearish reversal pattern. ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=energy The energy markets closed lower on Thursday due to profit taking as the market position itself ahead of this week's API inventory report and Friday's OPEC meeting. The market is expecting this week's API inventory report to be bullish, which has helped temper some of today's losses. Light pressure also came from today's bearish AGA inventor report for natural gas, which was the second-smallest draw on inventories for the corresponding week in December since the AGA started its weekly report in 1994. February crude oil closed modestly lower on Thursday and settled below the previous reaction high crossing at 21.05. A late day rally tempered some of today's losses as February closed mid-range thereby leaving the door open for sideways trading on Friday. A bullish API inventory report on Friday could provide the catalyst needed to extend this month's rally. The 38% retracement level of this fall's decline crossing at 21.77, then November's high at 22.83 are potential targets later this winter. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. February heating oil closed lower on Thursday but remained above broken resistance crossing at 57.80 thereby keeping the door open for a possible test of November's reaction high crossing at 64.35 later this winter. Today's mid-range close leaves the door open for sideways trading on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible into early-January. February unleaded gas posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday as it consolidated some of Wednesday's gains, which appear to have been overdone. However, today's mid-range close leaves the door open for sideways trading on Friday. Momentum indicators are bullish signaling that additional gains are possible into early-January. If this week's rally continues, November's high crossing at 62.31 is February's next target. February Henry Hub natural gas closed sharply lower on Thursday following today's bearish AGA inventory report. The report showed a draw of 81 bcf on U.S. inventories, which was slightly above industry expectations however, there were too many people caught in January and were forced to liquidate, which pulled the rest of the contracts lower on the day. Several long-term weather forecasts are calling for a bitter cold snap towards mid-January, which might help limit, any short-term losses. However, traders are cautious about cold-weather predictions after two months of above normal temps this fall. Closes below 2.58 would renew this fall's decline as we begin the new year. CURRENCIES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=currencies The March Dollar closed lower on Thursday as it continues to consolidate some of Monday's gains. A rebound ahead of the close tempered some of today's loss leaving the door open for sideways trading on Friday. March's failure to close above November's high crossing at 118.27 on Thursday raises the possibility that this week's high might have marked a double top. If the rally continues, the 75% retracement level of this summer's decline crossing at 119.57 is March's next upside target. The March Swiss Franc closed higher on Thursday due to short covering. Session highs spiked above broken support crossing at .5973 however, March remained below this fall's trading range. I would not be surprised to see March consolidate below broken trading range support for the balance of the year. If the decline resumes, fib support crossing at .5722 is March's next target. The March Canadian Dollar posted a potential key reversal up on Thursday after testing November's low at .6230 earlier in the day. March's inability to push through this support level triggered a short covering rally however, gains were tempered due to a late-day sell off before the close. Today's mid-range close leaves the door open for sideways trading on Friday. The March Japanese Yen extended its decline off September's high on Thursday and is poised to test monthly fib support crossing at .7568 in the near future. The daily ADX is bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible into early-January. PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals February gold closed lower on Thursday and is breakout out below December's uptrend line crossing near 277.80. Multiple closes below this support level are needed to confirm today's trendline breakout, which would then open the door for sideways to lower prices into early-January. Today's decline turned stochastics and the RSI neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top is in or near. March silver closed lower on Thursday and below the 62% retracement level of this fall's decline crossing at 4.51 thereby increasing the odds that a short-term top is in place or near. Stochastics and the RSI are very overbought and turning bearish with this week's setback warning bullish traders to use caution. A downturn by the ADX is needed to confirm that the rebound off November's high has come to an end. March copper closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of Wednesday's gain. March has become range bound between the 50% retracement level of November's rally crossing at 67.50 and below the reaction high crossing at 69.45. A breakout in either direction of this trading range is needed to clear up near-term direction in the market. Short-term momentum indicators are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible into early- January. GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains March corn closed higher on Thursday due to light short covering ahead of this week's export sales report due out Friday morning. Today's rebound fell short of testing broken support crossing at 2.10 1/4 thereby leaving the door open for a possible test of weekly support crossing at 2.04 1/4 later this winter. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible into early-January. Producer selling is almost non-existent and is likely to remain that way until mid-January when cash merchandisers expect producers to resume cash sales. March wheat closed higher on Thursday following today's announcement that Egypt purchased up to 120,000 metric tonnes of U.S. soft red winter wheat along with 180,000 metric tonnes of Australian standard white wheat. This news triggered a short covering rally that erased all of Wednesday's losses. Today's high-range close leaves the door open for sideways to higher trading on Friday if tomorrow's export sales report comes in neutral to friendly. From a broader perspective, March wheat needs to close above trendline resistance crossing near 2.94 or below trendline support crossing near 2.83 to clear up near-term direction in the market. Stochastics and the RSI returned to bullish modes with today's rally signaling that sideways to higher prices are still possible near-term. SOYBEAN COMPLEX http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=grains March soybeans closed steady on Thursday as positioning ahead of January deliveries and year-end position squaring dominated today's trading. Strong U.S. exports and domestic demand are being offset by rising South American crop prospects and forecasts calling for record global ending stocks. This week's breakout below trading range support crossing at 4.32 1/2 has opened the door for a possible test of weekly support crossing at 4.23 1/2 in the near future. March soybean meal closed slightly higher on Thursday due to light short covering amidst strong domestic demand. However, this week's move to new lows for December has opened the door for a likely test of April's low crossing at 142 later this winter. This week's export sales report is not expected to hold any surprises for the market, which will leave meal looking towards soybeans for near-term direction. It will take closes above this summer's downtrend line crossing near 151.90 to confirm a bottom and trend change has taken place. LIVESTOCK http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock February hogs posted an inside day with a higher close due to spillover support from sharply higher belly prices. Short covering ahead of Friday's quarterly hogs and pigs report also provided light support to the market. The trade is expecting tomorrow's report to be neutral to bullish. However, this month's run up in prices appears to have already factored in a modest amount of bullish news in the upcoming report. February hogs are poised to test this summer's downtrend line crossing near 56.40. Closes above this resistance level would open the door for a larger- degree rebound into early-January. February cattle posted a downside reversal on Thursday, as traders were disappointed over the lack of an established cash price. While temps are running below normal across cattle feeding country, there are no storms to disrupt movement, which is short-term bearish. Technically, the door remains open for February cattle to try and test November's high crossing at 71.35. Momentum indicators are bullish but nearing their respective overbought zones hinting that February cattle may struggle to overcome this resistance level. FOOD & FIBER http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=food March coffee posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday as it consolidated some of last Friday's loss. Closes below 46.00 are needed to confirm last Friday's key reversal down, which would then set the stage for a likely test of this month's low crossing at 44.75. Closes below 44.75 would confirm a breakout into new contract lows thereby opening the door for a possible test of psychological support crossing at 40-cents later this winter. Expectations for a bumper Brazilian crop this spring along with expectations that Vietnam might be an aggressive seller of their crop after the first of the year will likely keep pressure on the market into January. March cocoa posted a key reversal on Thursday filling last week's gap at 1297. Thin holiday trading allowed local traders to run buy stops, which exaggerated today's rally. Meanwhile purchases at Ivory Coast ports are running well ahead of last year's pace during the height of the shipping season. March will need to close above 1365 or below 1212 to clear up near-term direction in the market. March sugar gapped above December's downtrend line on Thursday thereby confirming that last week's spike below the 50% retracement level of this fall's rally crossing at 698 marked a short-term bottom. However, the mid-range close leaves the door open for sideways trading on Friday. Today's rally turned stochastics and the RSI bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible into early-January. March cotton posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday as it consolidates above the Nov./Dec. downtrend line. Trading was subdued ahead of tomorrow's weekly export sales report. Export demand needs to remain strong in order to sustain this week's anemic trendline breakout. News that China may see a significant cutback in cotton acreage this coming year also provided light support to the market. Daily Extreme Commentary is brought to you by GLOBALcharts, INO.com's end-of-day charting software for Futures, Futures Options and Optionable Stocks. http://www.globalcharts.com Search the INO Store - http://store.ino.com/ ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E F U T U R E S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/futures/ WINNERS PBH2 Frozen Pork Bellies Mar 2002 79.925 3.000 +3.90 LBN2 Random Length Lumber Jul 2002 269.00 10.00 +3.73 RAH2 South African Rand Mar 2002 0.083300 0.002300 +2.80 WH2 Wheat Mar 2002 291 6 1/2 +2.28 XWH2 Wheat Mar 2002 291 6 1/2 +2.28 NKM2 Nikkei 225 Stock Avg Jun 2002 10240 200 +1.95 EJH2 Euro/Japanese Yen Mar 2002 115.44 1.53 +1.34 LHG2 Lean Hogs Feb 2002 56.125 0.675 +1.22 SMV2 Soybean Meal Oct 2002 145.8 1.5 +1.04 MVH2 Value Line Index. Mini Mar 2002 1253.20 12.70 +1.02 LOSERS OJF2 Orange Juice Froz. Conc. #1 Jan 2002 89.95 -2.80 -3.01 RRF2 Rough Rice Jan 2002 3.800 -0.090 -2.31 CTN3 Cotton Jul 2003 46.80 -0.60 -1.27 XEH2 Soybean Meal Mar 2002 145.4 -1.4 -0.97 AGM2 Silver 1,000 oz. Jun 2002 4.500 -0.043 -0.95 XLG2 Live Cattle Feb 2002 70.15 -0.63 -0.89 DAG2 BFP Milk Feb 2002 11.60 -0.10 -0.85 LCG2 Live Cattle Feb 2002 70.150 -0.550 -0.78 GIF2 Goldman Sachs Commodity Index Jan 2002 174.40 -1.30 -0.74 CRY0 CRB/Bridge index Cash 192.07 -1.42 -0.73 *FREE TRIAL-T3 Fibs Pro Trader Software 100% Automated Tops & Bottoms-Any Market Any Time Frame http://www.ino.com/specials/nexgen/protrader.html ____________________________________________________________________________ E X T R E M E S T O C K S ____________________________________________________________________________ Updated every 10 minutes around the clock. More at http://quotes.ino.com/analysis/extremes/stocks/ WINNERS OHB ORLEANS HOMEBUILDERS 7.00 1.41 +26.16 FCEL FUELCELL ENERGY INC 17.9000 2.6800 +17.57 GEG GLOBAL POWER EQUIP GRP 14.70 2.10 +16.67 SSSS STEWART & STEVENSON 19.9400 2.8375 +16.54 PLUG PLUG POWER 9.0800 1.2200 +15.74 NMTI NMT MEDICAL INC 9.3190 1.2500 +15.72 MOSY MONOLITHIC SYSTEM TECH 20.6900 2.6900 +14.74 CNCT CONNETICS CORP 13.9500 1.7100 +14.38 EMITF ELBIT MEDICAL IMAGING 6.5000 0.8490 +13.65 UAG UNITED AUTO GROUP 26.20 3.15 +13.61 LOSERS FLY AIRLEASE LTD L.P. 7.00 -1.40 -16.57 SLAB SILICON LABORATORIES 34.1800 -5.9000 -14.73 SMDI SIRENZA MICRODEVICES INC 6.1300 -0.9900 -13.96 CXW-A CORRECTIONS CORP OF AMER PFD A 18.90 -2.68 -12.42 ENE-J ENRON CORP $10.50 CV 2ND PFD 15.80 -2.25 -12.00 JPST JPS INDUSTRIES INC 5.8800 -0.6900 -11.56 CBR CIBER INC 9.25 -1.16 -11.14 RNDC RAINDANCE COMMUNICATIONS INC 5.5800 -0.6900 -10.97 IIJI INTERNET INITIATIVE JAPAN INC 6.3000 -0.7800 -10.91 UNEWY UNITED BUSINESS MEDIA PLC 6.7000 -0.7000 -9.33 _____________________________________________________________________ T H A N K Y O U _____________________________________________________________________ Thank you for subscribing to the Extreme Markets Daily Digest from INO.com ( http://www.ino.com/ ). 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