Message-ID: <4618811.1075840777981.JavaMail.evans@thyme> Date: Fri, 20 Apr 2001 13:29:00 -0700 (PDT) From: nelson.neale@enron.com To: vince.kaminski@enron.com, vasant.shanbhogue@enron.com Subject: Petrochem Desk Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-From: Nelson Neale X-To: Vince J Kaminski , Vasant Shanbhogue X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \vkamins\c:\technote\mail\Projects X-Origin: KAMINSKI-V X-FileName: vincent kaminski 1-30-02.pst I had a chance to speak with Christian LeBroc this morning with regard to curve building for petrochemicals. As it turns out, Christian left RAC in April and joined the Petrochem Desk as a trader. Previous efforts at construction of a forward curve by the group have focused on intuition or SWAGs. Unfortunately, the group had a rough P&L year with at least some of the blame directed toward the forward curve or lack thereof. When asked about the fundamentals group, Christian indicated that they'd only been around about 3-4 months and are not yet well-suited to curve building. John Nowlan is indeed the head of the group. From a timing perspective, I told Christian that it would probably take at least 6-8 weeks to develop a curve, especially considering the need to understand the key market drivers/fundamentals. As was suggested yesterday during our meeting, a strong relationship between petrochemicals and a NYMEX component (e.g., crude oil) would provide a great beginning point--we could then potentially strengthen/augment this relationship with other key factors (e.g., supply and demand terms) borne out of our market research. Nelson