Subject: Re: Spreadsheet for George Posey
From: [email-masked]
To: [email-masked]
Cc: [email-masked], [email-masked]
Date: Thu, 20 Jan 2000 06:52:00 -0800 (PST)

George,

This is the first cut at the problem you gave us, done by my associate 
Clayton Vernon.
Please, feel free to call him with any question. Your friend should check 
what were the sermons
he gave on April 19 and April 25, in 1998 and 1999, respectively. 

Vince

---------------------- Forwarded by Vince J Kaminski/HOU/ECT on 01/20/2000 
02:49 PM ---------------------------

Clayton Vernon@ENRON
01/20/2000 10:56 AM
To: Vince J Kaminski/HOU/ECT@ECT
cc:  
Subject: Re: Spreadsheet for George Posey  

Vince-

Here is an analysis of the fund giving at the church.

First off, it appears from the data that a special "appeal" for fund giving 
was made (from the pulpit?) on April 19, 1998 and April 25, 1999, (perhaps 
tied rhetorically into Income Taxes?). Then, by going back and incorporating 
obvious dates from the calendars for 1997-1999, the following regression 
analysis is made, where each effect is added independently:

giving this Sunday = $4403

+ a minor $3 weekly time trend (i.e., multiply by the number of weeks since 
Jan. 5, 1997)

+ no pure effect from last week's contributions (i.e., denies first-order 
autoregressive effects)

+ $2426 if Easter Sunday or the Sunday nearest Christmas

+ $9695 if (pastoral appeal) April 19,1998 or April 25,1999

- $340 if the Sunday falls on the weekend of a Monday Federal holiday

- $50 if the Sunday following Thanksgiving

- $73  if a Summer weekend (June 1 thru August 31)

The pure time trend is very small, so an annual projection based on all 3 
years data would be for giving to increase only a minor amount ($150) for 
2000 assuming a similar appeal for giving is made this April.

Clayton