Message-ID: <14187560.1075858467594.JavaMail.evans@thyme>
Date: Thu, 12 Apr 2001 18:14:00 -0700 (PDT)
From: vince.kaminski@enron.com
To: mike.roberts@enron.com
Subject: Syncrasy prepares you for the summer
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X-From: Vince J Kaminski
X-To: Mike A Roberts <Mike A Roberts/HOU/ECT@ECT>
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FYI
Vince
---------------------- Forwarded by Vince J Kaminski/HOU/ECT on 04/12/2001 =
03:15 PM ---------------------------
evan@syncrasy.com on 04/12/2001 01:31:37 PM
To:=09vkamins@ect.enron.com
cc:=09=20
Subject:=09Syncrasy prepares you for the summer
[IMAGE]=09
[IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE] Syncrasy, LLC? =
713.228.8470 Off 713.228.4147 Fax 909 Texas Avenue Suite 1314 =
Houston, TX 77002 www.syncrasy.com Sales: 713.228.=
4407 Development Offices: 970.247.4139 Off 970.247.7951 Fax 835 Mai=
n Avenue Suite 221 Durango, CO 81301 =09 Is your Company fi=
nancially susceptible to weather fluctuations? [IMAGE]Syncras=
y's Weather Analysis Tool (SWAT? will help. Does weather forecast uncertai=
nty slow the speed at which your business makes decisions? [=
IMAGE]Examine Syncrasy's application Forecast Analysis and Confidence Tradi=
ng System (FACTS? How accurate is your current weather information? =
[IMAGE]Examine Syncrasy's application Weather Analysis and Vendor E=
valuation System (WAVES? How timely is your current weather informatio=
n? [IMAGE]Examine Syncrasy's Model Status page. SPOT W=
EATHER ANOMOLIES QUICKLY Using Syncrasy's proprietary visualization tools,=
a user can quickly compare the output of up to 4 weather forecasting model=
s for a specific time period. Syncrasy's visualization tool projects each m=
odel over an identical national grid, and a zoom feature allows synchronize=
d zooming into any particular region of the continental US. For an example,=
view the Multi-Panel Graphic? on our website. [IMAGE] QUANTIFY YOU=
R WEATHER RISK [IMAGE] Syncrasy provides individual forecasts for ove=
r 1,600 weather stations in the continental US. For any one of these statio=
ns, you can compare all 14 weather forecasts side-by-side either to gain st=
atistical confidence in a particular outcome or to quantify the weather ris=
k of a specific forecast. If you rely on weather forecasts, you should be =
aware of the extent to which all 14 forecasts agree (or disagree) with each=
other. For an example, visit Syncrasy's Forecast Analysis and Confidence =
Trading System (FACTS)? on our website. WHICH WEATHER FORECAST IS MORE A=
CCURATE? Discover which weather forecast has been historically the most ac=
curate for a particular city over any selected time period (such as last we=
ek, month, season, etc.). Refine your analysis with data filters. For exam=
ple, use a filter to determine which of the weather forecasting models is m=
ost accurate when actual temperatures are greater than 90 degrees, or when =
temperatures change more than 10 degrees within an hour. For an example, s=
ee Syncrasy's Weather Accuracy & Vendor Evaluation System (WAVES)? on our=
website. CONDUCT DETAILED, PRECISE ANALYSES USING "DIFFERENCE GRAPHICS" =
"Difference Graphics" refers to the spatially calculated difference for=
a single output. Difference Graphics allows a user to analyze discrepancie=
s between any 2 weather forecasting models for any time period. For exampl=
e, using Difference Graphics, a user can view the difference in surface tem=
perature between "Weather Vendor A" and "Weather Vendor B" across the US fo=
r tomorrow at 2pm. A user could also view how "Weather Vendor A" has chang=
ed since the prior forecast. For an example visit Syncrasy's Difference G=
raphics. [IMAGE] ENHANCE YOUR WEATHER COMPARISONS TO INCLUDE=
TRAILING AVERAGES The meteorological community frequently relies on one d=
ataset for comparative purposes: the "30 year average." This "30 year avera=
ge," however, may not be an ideal comparison as it is defined as the 30 yea=
r average over the period from 1961 to 1990. Syncrasy broadens the user's i=
nformation by including options allowing users to compare any weather forec=
ast to the trailing 30, 15, 10, or 5 year averages. A REAL COMPETITIVE A=
DVANTAGE: YOU HAVE THE INFORMATION FIRST! [IMAGE] Syncrasy's"Ma=
ch-5" technique expeditiously reports information to users in advance of ty=
pical weather data feeds which may experience bottlenecks during peak traff=
ic (or rely on slower satellite communication). To prove Syncrasy's superio=
r reporting speed, our system allows users to test our reporting speed for =
themselves by comparing our time stamps to that of their best alternative w=
eather data source. Syncrasy records the time at which each weather forecas=
t is available on Syncrasy's system (timestamp in dark green) as well as th=
e anticipated time the weather forecast should update (timestamp in black).=
Users will find our data reports FIRST offering them a valuable competitiv=
e advantage! For an example, visit Syncrasy's Model Status. Syncrasy's=
Weather Analysis Tool (SWAT? SWAT? collects timely and comprehensive met=
eorologically diverse weather forecasts from multiple forecasting groups,=
such as National Weather Service, universities, armed services, NASA and o=
ther research oriented institutions. The data is integrated into a single =
analysis platform. This platform includes a number of tools which may be u=
seful to a trader and/or meteorologist. For example, SWAT? assists users i=
n the following tasks: identifying and quantifying weather risk for some f=
uture time period; tracking the historical performance of different weather=
forecasting methodologies; and, creating a proprietary forecast. SWAT?cu=
rrently collects 14 forecasts covering next hour through 16 days in the f=
uture. This data (and risk analysis) is available on the SWAT?before most =
companies (especially those companies that depend on traditional satellite =
links). All these weather forecasts can be viewed graphically (as a nation=
al view or hemispheric view, were applicable) or viewed in a tabular format=
. SWAT?FEATURES: Compare SWAT features to other products in the marketp=
lace. SYNCRASY?is designed for use by: Meteorologists Powe=
r Analysts Power Traders Risk Management Exec=
utives At Syncrasy?we believe our system to be the only available service=
of its kind. Our research has found no other data source as comprehensive =
for statistical analysis of weather forecast performance. As a Subscriber t=
o our service, you will have use of cutting edge technology at your fingert=
ips. It is fast, reliable, and easy to use. SUBSCRIBE TODAY! Sales Off=
ice 713-228-4407 or Online at www.syncrasy.com [IMAGE] 909 =
Texas Ave., Suite 1314 713.228.8470 Main www.syncrasy.com 835=
Main Ave., Suite 221 970.247.4139 Main Houston, TX 77002 713.22=
8.4147 Fax Durango, CO 81301 970.247.7951 Fax 713.228.4407 Sales=
=09