From: [email-masked]
To: [email-masked], [email-masked]
Cc: [email-masked]
Date: Fri, 27 Oct 2000 00:40:00 -0700 (PDT)

The leadership situation in Japan is always relatively volatile and this 
period is no exception.  Following a further political gall by the PM over 
the North Korean hostage situation and ongoing adverse media attention on his 
cabinet, it is likely that the PM and his senior cabinet will be replaced 
within weeks, if not days.

As a matter of protocol the successors to the Prime Minister and Minister of 
State, Nakagawa, will keep the appointments set by the predecessors.  The 
focus is more on the position than the individual - so the Minister of State 
will open the office in the name of the PM whether it is Nakagawa or someone 
else.  Similarly, Mr Lay will have a meeting with the PM whether it is Mori 
or his successor.

Fortunately, we have very good relationships with the person most likely to 
be the next PM of Japan - Mr Katoh - and the person who will most likely be 
the next head of the Governing LDP - Mr Kamei.  Both Mr Katoh and Mr Kamei 
have indicated that they will attend the office opening.

As mentioned in my previous note, we had anticipated that the budget 
legislation would have been passed well before the office opening.  I also 
mentioned that the budget is likely to pass on the 31st or 1st.  One possible 
scenario on the timing for the replacement of Mori is immediately after the 
budget legislation is passed.  That timing would be problematic for us, as 
most senior politicians would be focused on the change of leadership during 
that period.

I will keep you informed as the political situation develops.