Message-ID: <28951679.1075848115829.JavaMail.evans@thyme> Date: Mon, 20 Nov 2000 10:57:00 -0800 (PST) From: jeff.dasovich@enron.com To: richard.shapiro@enron.com, james.steffes@enron.com, susan.mara@enron.com, mona.petrochko@enron.com, sandra.mccubbin@enron.com, mary.hain@enron.com, tim.belden@enron.com, robert.badeer@enron.com, joe.hartsoe@enron.com, dennis.benevides@enron.com, roger.yang@enron.com, harry.kingerski@enron.com, skean@enron.com, sarah.novosel@enron.com, karen.denne@enron.com, mpalmer@enron.com Subject: CEC report issued today saying there is no supply problem next summer Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-From: Jeff Dasovich X-To: Richard Shapiro, James D Steffes, Susan J Mara, Mona L Petrochko, Sandra McCubbin, Mary Hain, Tim Belden, Robert Badeer, Joe Hartsoe, Dennis Benevides, Roger Yang, Harry Kingerski, skean@enron.com, Sarah Novosel, Karen Denne, mpalmer@enron.com X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \Steven_Kean_June2001_4\Notes Folders\Discussion threads X-Origin: KEAN-S X-FileName: skean.nsf Here's the report that Sue referenced earlier. Appears that the administration's analysis of California's energy problems will continue to focus solely on the "bad actor" conspiracy theory. ----- Forwarded by Jeff Dasovich/NA/Enron on 11/20/2000 06:52 PM ----- "Katie Kaplan" 11/20/2000 06:28 PM Please respond to kaplan To: "Tony Wetzel" , , "'Greg Blue'" , "'Joe Ronan @ Calpine'" , "'John Stout for Reliant'" , "'Curtis Keebler at Reliant'" , "'Julie @ Edson'" , "'Karen Denne, Enron'" , "'Bob Escalante at Constellation'" , "'Paula Hall-Collins'" , "'Marty Wilson'" , "'Rob Lamkin'" , "Karen Edson" , "Bob Weisenmiller" , "Sue Mara" , "Andy Brown" , "B Brown Andy" , "Bob Escalante" , "Greg Blue" , "Jack Pigott" , "Jan Smutny-Jones" , "Joe Ronan" , "Karen Denne" , "Karen Edson" , "Kassandra Gough" , "Kristin Vellandi" , "Lynn Lednicky" , "McNally Ray" , "Paula Hall-Collins" , "Richard Hyde" , "Rob L. Lamkin" , "Stephanie-Newell" , "Tom Ross" , "William Hall" , "Ward Scobee" , "Tony Wetzel" , "Tom Heller" , "Ted Cortopassi" , "Sue Mara" , "Steve Ponder" , "Steve Iliff" , "Roger Pelote" , "Robert Frees" , "Pete Levitt" , "Paula Soos" , "Nam Nguyen" , "Milton Schultz" , "Marty McFadden" , "Ken Hoffman" , "Jonathan Weisgall" , "Joe Ronan" , "Joe Greco" , "Jeff Dasovich" , "Jack Pigott" , "Hap Boyd" , "Frank Misseldine" , "Eric Eisenman" , "Ed Tomeo" , "Ed Maddox" , "Duane Nelsen" , "Doug Levitt" , "Dean Gosselin" , "Curt Hatton" , "Cody Carter" , "Carolyn Baker" , "Bob Escalante" , "Bill Woods" , "Bill Carlson" , "Kent Palmerton" cc: Subject: CEC report issued today saying there is no supply problem next summer Greetings: The CEC issued a report today that says that unless the ISO experiences "extraordinarily high" temperatures next year there is no supply problem. IEP is reviewing this document and will provide further correspondence as we prepare a response. If you have any questions please feel free to give me a call. Thanks, Katie Kaplan Manager of State Policy Affairs Independent Energy Producers Association (916) 448-9499 The report can be found at: http://www.energy.ca.gov/reports/2000-11-20_300-00-006.PDF The Press Release: California Energy Commission Report Released Summer of 2001 Electricity Supplies Better Than Expected Sacramento -- California should have enough power to meet its electricity demand next summer, unless the State experiences extraordinarily hot Weather, according to a study released today by the Energy Commission. "With new resources coming on-line and new conservation measures taking effect, next summer looks better than expected, if we manage our resources properly," said Steve Larson, Energy Commission Executive Director. The study, prepared as part of a response to legislation enacted in September, quantified the amount of electricity demand and supply expected in the summer of 2001. "We produced this analysis from the ground up," commented Larson. "We looked at every power plant and source of electricity available to the State to give us a realistic appraisal of where we stand for next summer. Energy Commission staff projected expected peak electricity demand using three temperature scenarios." The analysis indicated that under the "most likely" temperature conditions, next year's electricity peak demand will be 47,266 megawatts, which reflects a reduction of 220 megawatts of demand because of new utility and state energy conservation initiatives. Operating reserve requirements add an additional 2,200 to 3,000 megawatts demand in order to provide a 7 percent margin, raising the generation needed to a minimum of 50,303 megawatts. If California experiences a warmer than normal summer, the electricity system will require 48,845 megawatts plus operating reserve requirements, which raises the total to 51,882 megawatts. Under this scenario, total expected resources are 52,550 megawatts. Should the State experience extremely hot temperatures, which has a 1-in-10 year likelihood of occurring, 53,104 megawatts will be needed (50,068 megawatts of demand plus operating reserve requirements), with expected resources of 52,190 megawatts. An additional 1,888 - 3,087 megawatts of potential generation is currently under development and may be available for part or all of the summer. The Energy Commission's demand forecast takes into consideration expected economic conditions and household growth in the State. These two factors influence demand for air conditioning which drives summer peak demand for electricity. The Energy Commission's staff supply outlook includes existing in-state and out-of-state generation; new power plants expected to be on-line and generating electricity by August 1, 2000; and electricity imports and exports. The supply outlook also includes new renewable energy projects and energy efficiency measures and initiatives made possible by funding under AB 970, which was approved by the Governor in September, 2000. California's electricity demand is growing at 2 percent per year. To ensure that there are adequate supplies of electricity to meet future demand, it will be important to add new, efficient generation as well as to implement energy efficiency and demand reduction strategies. Since restructuring occurred in March 1998, the Energy Commission has approved six major power plant projects with a combined generation capacity of 4,708 megawatts. In addition another 15 electricity generating projects totaling over 7,000 megawatts and an estimated capital investment of more than $4 billion are being considered for licensing by the Commission. The report, Summer of 2001 Forecasted Electricity Demand and Supplies, is available on the Energy Commission's Web Site at: