Message-ID: <280380.1075840877103.JavaMail.evans@thyme> Date: Mon, 26 Mar 2001 12:20:00 -0800 (PST) From: paula.rieker@enron.com To: louise.kitchen@enron.com Subject: Simmons Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-From: Paula Rieker X-To: Louise Kitchen X-cc: X-bcc: X-Folder: \ExMerge - Kitchen, Louise\'Americas\Mrha\OOC X-Origin: KITCHEN-L X-FileName: louise kitchen 2-7-02.pst FYI - an excerpt from today's Simmons note on ENE's conf. call from Friday that summarizes their view of Enron. If you'd like to listen to the call, it can be accessed on the www.enron.com website under "Investors". Jeff Dietert, Simmmons, will be joining Craig Albert in the meeting Tues. afternoon I am headed to NYC on Tuesday for marketing. Joining Craig and Jeff from Enron IR will be Scott Vonderheide and David Leboe (David is new to IR from Wes Colwell's structuring group). Pls. call if you have anything you'd like to discuss prior to the meeting. Thanks, Paula SUMMARY: ENE held a conference call primarily to confirm that its business units are on-track and to dispel some rumors in the marketplace. ENE reiterated its FY01 EPS guidance of $1.70-$1/75, which we consider to be conservative (consensus is $1.74/sh, SCI-$1.80/sh). ENE did not discuss any change to 1Q01 EPS expectations (guidance $0.40-$0.45/sh, consensus $0.45, SCI $0.43/sh). Many of ENE's comments concerning the wholesale energy trading confirm comments we are consistently getting from all the energy convergence players. The California situation is forcing utilities across the country to deal with risk exposure to avoid a PG&E/Edison situation. Most utilities and other gas/electricity consumers are not prepared to manage these risk and are now outsourcing energy management activities to sophisticated marketing companies. In addition, new generation facilities are offering gas marketing opportunities. ENE is clearly the leader in energy marketing, trading & risk management. There are a few other sophisticated MT&RM companies (DYN, EPG, WMB, DUK, MIR, Aquila), but there is a huge drop in sophistication below these top tier marketers. We believe the vast majority of the opportunity is being captured by these few strong players. ENE is expecting 1Q01 natural gas volumes to be up 25% to 30% and electricity volumes to be up 25% to 50% over 1Q00. OPINION: It is tough to get excited about buying a 30x multiple stock is a market as ugly as the one we are currently experiencing. However, ENE is the leader in energy convergence and should be a part of any growth and/or energy portfolio. There are few opportunities to build a position in the stock at reasonable valuations and we believe ENE's current valuation is very attractive (31x FY01, 26x FY02). Business fundamentals are quite strong and ENE is benefiting from a market where tight energy markets encourage customers to focus on large, well-established suppliers for their energy requirements. CLEARING UP THE NOISE: EBS LAYOFFS. Rumors have circulated that ENE was laying off employees in its Broadband segment and even that it was disbanding its Broadband business. We expect ENE to continue to build the Intermediation and Content Services units. ENE expects to build its Network with a larger percentage of contracted capacity than previously expected and reduced its capital expenditure expectations from $750 million this year to $250 million. The reduced activity in building out the Network is contributing to reduced staffing requirements in the Network area. PGE DIVESTITURE. CEO Jeff Skilling placed only a 5% probability on the completion of the $1.7 billion PGE sale to Sierra Pacific. The PGE asset is likely to continue as part of the ENE portfolio in the near-term. We had previously considered PGE to be a discontinued business. PGE EPS contributions will be marginally positive to FY01 EPS expectations. INDIA GENERATION. ENE's Dabhol, India power project (826 MW) is experiencing a similar crisis to the one in California. The electricity purchaser of the power generated by Dabhol is backed by the Indian government, but has not been able to pass through the increased cost of power caused by higher oil prices. ENE has been relying on the guarantee from the Indian government for payment for its electricity sales. ENE has continued to receive payment from he government but is subject to regulatory risks for this project. CALIFORNIA CREDIT EXPOSURE. We believe ENE is managing its credit risk appropriately.