Subject: Senate Switch Affects Energy Bill Outlook
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Date: Wed, 23 May 2001 14:14:00 -0700 (PDT)

At 1pm Houston time today, Senator James Jeffords (R-VT) will announce that he is switching from the Republican Party to become an Independent voting with the Democrats.  If this happens, control of the Senate will switch to the Democrats, which will give the Dems a majority and control of the Senate.   

?	All committee chairs would become Democratic and the Dems would control the legislative agenda
	( Energy bills, California bailout, possible investigation of who influenced the Cheney plan etc.).  In a profound 	ideological shift, Sen. Murkowski (R- AK) would be replaced by Sen. Bingaman (D-NM) as chair of the Senate 	Energy Committee.   When Bingaman takes over the Senate Energy Committee, expect pipeline safety issues to 	again come to the fore.  Bingaman is a strong proponent of tough pipeline safety regulation (particularly in the wake of 	the Carlsbad explosion last year) and will likely insist on strict safety requirements in the Cheney energy bill.

?	The recommendations for loosening regulations for oil/gas drilling, coal and power as well as incentives for new generation contained in the Cheney bill are likely to be heavily revised in favor of more conservation-oriented measures.

?	The tax bill will likely be downsized, particularly if Jeffords makes his switch immediately.  The timing is important because the Senate-House conference on the bill must be appointed immediately.

?	All presidential appointments would be controlled by the Dems.  This is significant because of the large number of sub-cabinet level appointments that need to be approved.

At the same time, Republicans are trying to convince Sen. Zell Miller (D-GA), who already votes Republican, to switch to the Republican party.  If this happens, it will cancel out the expected Jeffords move.  Initial reports are that Miller will not switch.

One other caveat -- Jeffords has pondered a switch in the past and then flaked out.  But if Jeffords goes through with it and Miller stays put, the balance of power in Washington will be tipped in favor of the Democrats.